Sox Machine: Chicago White Sox blog

Tommy John? Caveat Farmer!

According to the Chicago Tribune, Tommy John is the front-runner for the open spot in the White Sox radio booth.  Aside from the fact that he'd be replacing John Rooney and sitting next to Ed Farmer, I have no clue what this means.  I’ve never heard the guy talk, I don’t recall him being especially quotable, and I have no way to gauge his baseball IQ, although I assume it’s higher than mine.

What I do know doesn’t much relate to broadcasting skills, but we’re just going to have to make do.

What we know about Tommy John

1. He has two first names.  This makes it difficult to write about him, because secondary references always seem so informal.  "John said this," and "John did that."  But I'll cut him some slack, because the name of my state representative in Missouri was John John, and that was just silly.
2. A ligament in his left arm used to be a tendon in his right arm.  Hey, Tommy John Surgery wouldn't be Tommy John Surgery without him.
   
3. His baseball cards are fun to read.  I remember his 1987 Yankees Topps card vividly, because at that point he had already played more than 20 seasons.  And Topps, being the good card company it was, made sure to include stats for every single one of them, even though they had to shrink the font down to 1-point Helvetica.

What we can draw from that

• Farmer has a safety net to work with.  After working with John Rooney for the last 15 years, he might be accustomed to calling the guy next to him "John."  If he slips up, he can pass it off as a casual last-name-only reference that guys do all the time in locker rooms.
• Farmer's kidney transplant won't seem as novel.  Uncle Ed likes to talk about his kidney problems and use the radio booth as a bully pulpit for organ donations.  That's great and all, but it's not like he was the first.  When it comes to transplants with some cachet, I'm going with the guy who had his named after him.  If Farmio can get a kidney transplant renamed "Ed Farmer Surgery," then we'll talk.
• Farmer might find himself deferring an awful lot.  Farmer is awfully confident in his pitching knowledge, but he only pitched for 11 years.  Tommy John was a major-league pitcher for 26 seasons, and logged 4,000 more innings than Farmer did.  Who is the listener going to believe?  What if what Farmer calls a "Missouri Fastball," John calls a "Kansas Heater?"  Should we call it a "Kansas Heater?"  Having graduated from Mizzou, I sure hope not.
  

Some may not take a lot of stock in this analysis, but as far as I can tell, ol' Farmio might have his broadcasting world turned upside-down. 

Contreras vs. Garland: Tale of the Tape

With the addition of Javier Vazquez, the White Sox are now six pitchers deep.  Mark Buehrle, Freddy Garcia and Vazquez are signed through 2007, and Brandon McCarthy is under Sox control for several more years, which means either Jon Garland or Jose Contreras will be the odd man out before, during or after this season.

There's no reason to rush right now, however.  All the positions are set in a satisfactory fashion, and given the amount of innings the team's top four starters piled up, it wouldn't be a bad idea to have an excess pitcher in the hole.

On the other hand, it's not too early to start thinking about which pitcher the Sox would be better off retaining, because Kenny Williams is quick, stealthy and fearless -- like a ninja.  He may trade one of these guys in the next week.  Maybe one of them is already gone, and we don't even know it.  That's how proactive Kenny is.

That being said, let's size these guys up.

Height:
Garland:  6'6"
Contreras:  6'4"
Edge:  GARLAND

Weight:
Garland:  215
Contreras:  245
Edge:  CONTRERAS

Age:
Garland:  26
Contreras:  34(ish)
Edge:  GARLAND

Neck:
Garland:  Thin
Contreras:   Thicker
Edge:  PUSH  Whatever floats your boat.

Acquired by:
Garland:  Fleecing Cubs for Matt Karchner
Contreras:  Fleecing Yankees for Esteban Loaiza
Edge:  PUSH  A few years ago, this would be a definite Garland victory, given that Sox fans had Sosa-for-Bell rubbed in their faces.  Now, that doesn't matter so much, and the Sox weakened a league opponent by stealing Contreras from New York.

Repertoire:
Garland:  Low-90s fastball, sinker, improved changeup, so-so curve
Contreras:  Mid-90s fastball, one of the league's best splitters, not much of a slider or change
Edge:  CONTRERAS  His splitter almost looks wet, it's that nasty, and he finally figured out how to drive major-league hitters crazy with it.  Garland looks hittable, but if his sharpened control is here to stay this is worth re-evaluating.

Control:
Garland:  Improved, let's hope it stays.
Contreras:  Not great, but can use wildness to his advantage.
Edge:  GARLAND  Contreras is still a risk to lose the plate during any given start, and he was among league leaders in wild pitches. 

Defense:
Garland:  Excellent, and he can hold runners.
Contreras:  Pass.
Edge:  GARLAND  Garland fields his position with the best of them, and runners were less successful on him than they were on Mark Buehrle.  As far as holding baserunners goes, Contreras ignored them in the second half and was better off for it.  It's that bad.

Backstory:
Garland:  Nonchalant Californian finally gets his act together.
Contreras:  Survived one dictatorship (Castro), then another (Steinbrenner). 
Edge:  CONTRERAS  Garland received an unfair amount of criticism for just going through growing pains as a pitcher, but Contreras had to go a couple years without seeing his family, and that's a bigger deal.

Pitching coach away from pitching coach:
Garland:  Mark Buehrle
Contreras:  El Duque
Edge:  GARLAND   The more charismatic of the Cubans kept Contreras loose, and Buehrle helped Garland to work faster.  But, you know, El Duque's gone now.

Contracts reportedly rejected:
Garland:  3 years, $24 million
Contreras:  3 years, $24 million
Edge:  PUSH

Eventual cost of services:
Garland:  More
Contreras:  Less
Edge:  CONTRERAS  Less is more.

Best case scenario:
Garland:  Garland repeats what he did in 2005.
Contreras:  Contreras wins 20 games and finishes with a sub-3.00 ERA.
Edge:  CONTRERAS 

Worst case scenario:
Garland:  Returns to previous life as league-average pitcher.
Contreras:  Loses control, needs stopover in Charlotte, doesn't want to come back. 
Edge:  GARLAND

Most similar pitcher according to Baseball-Reference.com:
Garland: Carl Pavano
Contreras:  Cliff Lee
Edge:  CONTRERAS  Pavano is the posterboy for overpaid pitchers with decent control.  Lee got Cy Young votes last year.

Injury history:
Garland:  None
Contreras:  None
Edge:  PUSH

Did Ed Farmer scout him?
Garland:  Yes
Contreras:  No
Edge:  CONTRERAS  With John Rooney now in St. Louis, Farmer takes over primary play-by-play duties this year.  Those who never heard that Farmer saw Garland pitch as a high schooler in California will learn that fact again, and again, and again...

X-factor:
Garland:  After years of being classified as "soft," Garland looked awfully tough in 2005.  If he keeps it up, he's Brad Radke or better.  If not, he's another Kris Benson.
Contreras:  Contreras is 34, an age in which power pitchers usually start their decline.  But Contreras only got better as the year went on, so we'll see which way he goes.

Prospects, schmrospects

To Kenny Williams, Major League Baseball must look like one big free agent market.

The only difference is instead of paying inflated prices with cash, he uses prospects as his currency.  No GM is more aggressive than Williams when it comes to dipping into the farm system, but it’s difficult to argue with the results.

On Wednesday, Kenny Williams acquired Vazquez and $4-5 million for Hernandez, Vizcaino and center fielder prospect Chris Young.  Chances are, the only player they’ll miss is Young.

Despite his playoff heroics, El Duque is done as a starter, and not many relievers are worth the $4.5 million he’d receive.  Vizcaino is a fungible piece -- as a righty reliever with two mediocre pitches, he can be easily replaced.

On the other hand, Young put up a tremendous offensive season at AA Birmingham, which is one of the toughest parks for hitters in the entire minor leagues.  He hit 26 homers, slugged .545 and played Gold Glove-level defense according to scouts.  He might’ve had the highest ceiling of any of their touted outfield prospects, not only including current ones like Brian Anderson, Ryan Sweeney and Jerry Owens, but Joe Borchard and Jeremy Reed as well.

But Williams has shown time and time again that if players haven’t contributed at the AAA level, they’re fair game, so there’s no real point in agonizing over a player that wasn’t going to contribute until 2007. 

Instead, Williams uses prospects to acquire proven major league talent for below-market prices.  He traded for Freddy Garcia for prospects including Reed, and signed Garcia to a three-year, $27 million deal – absolutely enviable in this market.  Jim Thome brings the Sox left-handed power they haven’t seen since Robin Ventura left, and because the Sox gave up two pitching prospects, he’s only costing them $24 million over three years.  On the open market, Thome might cost $11 or $12 million over that length of time. 

Carl Everett, Juan Uribe and Carl Everett (the second time) were acquired as well using prospects, and Gary Majewski’s the only one that has experienced any sort of success.

He may get burned from time to time (Hi, Todd Ritchie!), but it’s looking like an increasingly smart way to do business, especially when considering that A.J. Burnett is getting $55 million even with a below-.500 lifetime record.  

There have been some exceptions – and let’s cross our fingers for Jim Thome – but the players Williams has acquired in the past couple of years via this method have either been entering their primes or enjoying them.  Some primes are shorter than others, like Carl Everett’s, but Williams doesn’t take on age risks the way the Yankees and other teams do.  

Thome once again aside, Williams doesn’t acquire injury risks.  Garcia, Uribe and Jose Contreras had been inconsistent performers, but they were at least durable before joining the Sox.  Williams can’t guarantee they’ll stay that way, with David Wells and Billy Koch as examples, but he tries to assure performance certainty as well as he assures cost certainty for his employers.

Vazquez has underachieved for a couple of solid years, but he automatically becomes the team’s best strikeout pitcher – no other White Sox pitcher has topped 200 K’s in a season – Vazquez has done it twice, including racking up 241 of them only three years ago.  He also improved his walk rate, so he could be a slight tweak and some improved defense away from contending for a Cy Young.  

Best part is, he’s only costing the Sox $19.5M over the next two years when he could’ve easily earned $24M on the open market.  And the Sox have control over him through 2008 because by demanding a trade, he lost free agent rights for a year.  The Sox have four pitchers set for their 2007 rotation, and all of them are earning less than what other teams would give them.

Pitching coach Don Cooper turned Jose Contreras from a head case into a workhorse.  Now you’re giving him a pitcher who has already been an ace at the major league level.  I think we’re going to like the results.