November 2006 - Posts

Sox Machine Season in Review: April

In case you're wondering what the hell all this is, check out the first installment covering the entire offseason

April 2
– The White Sox defeat the Indians, and based on last year, are led to believe that they will win the first game of the second half, as well as the clinching game of the World Series by a severely rain-delayed 10-4 margin.

April 2 – Jose Contreras also accepts a three-year contract extension; rest of rotation rips him, calling in-season extensions "soooooo 2005."

April 4 – Ring ceremony at U.S. Cellular Field.

April 5 – Trophy presentation at U.S. Cellular Field.

April 6 – Tiara and luxurious sash day at U.S. Cellular Field -- at least for Alex Cintron (don't tell anyone!).

April 7 – The White Sox use their first game against the Royals to film a PSA about the Missouri winter trout fishing “catch and release” program when they go up early 6-0, only to lose 11-7

April 8 – Mike Sweeney hits Cliff Politte ankle-high fastball for game-breaking homer.

April 9 – Reggie Sanders homers off Bobby Jenks, prompting Hawk Harrelson to deem the ball “juiced.”  When Darrin Jackson brings up Sweeney’s homer as additional proof, Hawk says, “Naw, Feisty, Cliff just kinda sucks.”

April 10 – Sox beat the Tigers in the home opener, surely a sign of things to come.

April 13 – Sox sweep the Tigers, who won’t be heard from again.  Scott Podsednik’s series – 1-for-12, three outfield misplays, one error, one baserunning gaffe.  Tadahito Iguchi and Craig Monroe become more than friends.

April 14 – Brian Anderson goes 0-for-5 with nine left on base.  Cliff Politte gives up four runs in 1 2/3 innings.  Neal Cotts allows his second homer in 10 days.  It’s a three-way tie for Hawk Harrelson’s far less popular “Pick to amount to dick.”

April 15 – Tadahito Iguchi makes diving, spinning throw, then sprints out of U.S. Cellular Field per Morpheus’ orders.

April 16 – Freddy Garcia is unable to find the plate in the pouring rain, throwing 49 pitches.  During the frame, he throws his hands up in disgust when a ball hydroplanes underneath Iguchi’s mitt.  Garcia gladly accepts "complete game" for 4-1/2 inning game, then accuses half the team of “faking it” when they develop nasty colds the following week.

April 16 – Kenny Williams bans Mark Buehrle from tarp slides.  

April 18 – Kenny Williams makes A.J. Pierzynski and Joe Crede cut their hair.

April 19 – Javier Vazquez carries a no-hitter into the seventh during a 4-0 victory.  Sox pitching allows only one run in 27 innings.  No snark, just bittersweetness.

April 20 – Kenny Williams threatens to sell Boone Logan on the black market if he doesn’t get off the shed.

April 21 – The Sox defeat Johan Santana and the Minnesota Twins 7-1.  Ozzie Guillen makes a point to meet Santana outside the locker room after the game, apologizes profusely and says it’ll never happen again.

April 24 – Ozzie Guillen upholds a proud Sox tradition when he ends a White Sox winning streak at eight games by sending out one of the worst lineups of the season, and seals the deal by bringing in Brandon McCarthy in an extra-inning game.

April 26 – Mark Buehrle reports for compulsory duty against Jarrod Washburn.

April 29 – After an embarrassing non-tag of A.J. Pierzynski in last year’s ALCS, Kelvim Escobar plunks him in the calf with a fastball.  He still needs a World Series ring to truly get even, but at least he got the hard part out of the way.

April 30 – The Angels lose their seventh in a row to the Sox after Chicago takes the three-game series; Mike Scioscia lauds his players for their “playoff-caliber intensity.”

K-Doubletalk

In response to the growing swirl of trade rumors surrounding Joe Crede, Kenny Williams had an interesting quote among many regarding his third baseman:

"I have not approached anyone in trying to trade Joe Crede, and I don't plan to approach anyone."

It's interesting because it doesn't mean anything.  Any remedial fantasy baseball player knows that's not how trading works.  If I want to start trade talks, I start by asking about somebody else's player that I want.  If I were a GM and Kenny approached me saying, "I want to trade you Joe Crede.  Tell me what it'll take," I'd wonder if he was trying to fix games. 

In the past, Williams has combated trade rumors by saying something to the effect of, "I'll listen to any deal, but somebody's going to have to blow me away in order for me to move him."  He's not saying that here.  Maybe I need to recalibrate my KW Decoder Ring, but that's what it looks like to me, especially since Kenny's cautious about what he lets on.

Even if the chatter results in nothing between the Angels and Sox, it's caused some Seattle ears to perk up:

But in the current environment, it seems Garcia, who has one year left on his contract at about $9 million, is beginning to look good to the Mariners as the pool of free agent pitchers dries up. For one thing, Mariners starter Felix Hernandez idolizes Garcia, a good friend. For another, Garcia was a steady winner during his time in Seattle.

Unlike the Angels, who have a bevy of young, cheap talent, the Mariners' possible trading chits are harder to find.  Rafael Soriano would look good in the Sox bullpen, but the Sox would have to think big -- like, Ichiro big -- in order to upgrade the 25-man roster otherwise (though I'm sure Carl Everett would disagree).

By the way, the note about Hernandez idolizing Garcia is funnier if you've heard about King Felix's offseason regimen:

"All I do all day is sleep and watch TV," Hernandez says with a shrug and a grin. "I don't even want to think about baseball. Sleeping and watching TV. That's what I want to do."

All Crede, all the time

The Tribune has run a couple Joe Crede-related articles as of late.  To sum up each in a sentence:
There's a good discussion of the topic going on at South Side Sox, and it covers just about every facet of the proposed deal.  As it stands now, it doesn't make much sense because the Angels would shoot themselves in the foot by trading Ervin Santana for Freddy Garcia, and Joe Crede isn't that much of an improvement over Chone Figgins if his disc problems persist.

My guess is that Crede will get dealt before the season one way or another, because between the Van Dyck article and the situation regarding Crede's refusal to have surgery, the situation between Crede and the Sox is growing more tenuous than the relationship between Crede and his back.  I know Crede's said in the past that he's his own man when it comes to deciding where he wants to play, but he's not powerful enough to combat the Scott Boras Spectre of Doom.  It sure swallowed up any goodwill between the Sox and Magglio Ordonez.

If the Angels remain a trade partner after the buzz of the rumors dies down, I think the Sox would benefit from looking into snagging Jeff Mathis in the deal should both teams bulk up their packages.  Mathis stands as the Angels' third catcher behind Mike Napoli and Jose Molina, giving them both offense and defense behind the plate.  Mathis hasn't shown much at the major-league level, but his minor-league numbers indicate that he can at least handle left-handed pitching.

Bad things come in threes

No. 1:  How bad is it for the Oakland Raiders?  Seeking to improve their offensive production, they fired their offensive coordinator, Tom Walsh, and replaced him with... John Shoop!

Yes, Shoop somehow managed to land himself a coordinator job again, though this time it's actually the right situation -- with an organization that, in football terms, is as impotent as he is. 

The guys at FireJohnShoop.com might be able to make some money off their domain name if they so choose.  At least we can now look back at Shoop's first 15 plays and laugh at somebody else's misfortune now.

No. 2:  The Blackhawks fired Trent Yawney.  And nobody cares.  Denis Savard takes over, and he'll get chewed up and spat out just the same.

No. 3:  I'm not a TV watcher, but I actually set aside time to watch the My Boys pilot on TBS tonight.  Since it involves Chicago and baseball journalism, ostensibly there isn't a show that's better suited for me.  At the very least, I could sit there and pick out what it gets wrong about newspapers (and I'll get to that later).

Here's what kept it from being anything approaching "good":
  • The title.  As a straight male, it's hard to get excited about a show called "My Boys."  Say these sentences aloud -- "Let's watch My Boys."  "Do you like My Boys?"  "I taped My Boys."  If you have kids, that might sound natural.  If you don't, it might just sound like you want to talk about your testicles. 
  • The supporting cast.  There are two whipped guys, one womanizer, one punk-ish guy, and the cute guy.  The female sidekick is a ditz.  Sounds a lot like Love Monkey, another show I actually sat down to watch.  I thought it was going to be the TV version of High Fidelity, my third-favorite movie of all time.  Instead, it just sucked because it was paper-thin and the dialogue couldn't sound more contrived.
  • Cliches.  I'm not a huge fan of narrators in general, especially ones that spell out the plot in insipid ways.  Sports have rules, written and unwritten, relationships should be more like sports, because there are penalties that don't get penalized and blah blah blah...  Anything vaguely reminiscent of "Sex and the City" should get the axe.
And what did it get wrong about newspapers?
  • For a baseball beat writer, she had a lot of free time.  Anybody who's held the job either sarcastically snorted or chucked a remote at the TV when she said, "I'm not working the next few days."  Of course, it wouldn't be a great show if it revolved around her getting home when everybody else is going to sleep, tallying Marriott Rewards points on the road or having McDonald's for the third time that week.
  • So much for objectivity.  When hiring a beat writer, it's not a great idea to hire somebody who's a huge fan of the team.  It might make sense if she were a Cubs writer for the Tribune, more so if she worked for MLB.com.  Not like the Sun-Times is the cat's ass when it comes to journalistic standards (it employs Jay Mariotti, after all), but it lacks the motive of the other two.
  • When they were working, when were they working?  The beat writers are in an empty clubhouse before the players show up, and then leave when the players get there.  And they act surprised when the lead character can't go with them because she has stuff to do.
That's all I could count, because, well, she "had a few days off."  At this rate, she's going to make Ray Barone and Oscar Madison look like Bob Woodward and Carl Bernstein

The really sad thing is that I'll probably watch it again next week, and don't think for a second that I won't give you another blow-by-blow report on how it fails in various facets.  I'm expecting it to be cancelled after maybe three or four more shows.  If it outlasts that prediction, you'll probably start wishing that I were talking about my other boys.  As it stands now, the latter could be vastly more entertaining.

Ruminations upon a Gload

Ross Gload will be back with the Sox in 2007, signing a one-year, $625,000 deal Monday.

A couple states away, the Cleveland Indians bolstered their lineup by signing David Dellucci to a three-year, $11.5 million contract. 

These players have a lot in common, even if ignoring that they'll compete in the same division.  They're both left-handed, over-30 hitters with decent speed and a recent string of success, and neither are well-regarded for outfield defense.

Dellucci's been a different hitter since discovering corrective eye surgery, and has shown a good mix of plate discipline and power, even if he can't hit lefties a lick.  Meanwhile, we know what Gload can do with even semi-regular playing time.  Combine his 2004 and 2006 seasons, and Gload's posted a line of .323/.366/.472.

What's interesting is that when looking at what they might do next year, the two projections systems I can see love Gload, but the only projection I've seen so far is lukewarm about Dellucci.  Take a look at their numbers from ZiPS and the 2007 Bill James Handbook:

Gload:

Season AB H
HR RBI BB K
BA OBP SLG
2006 Actual
156
51
3 18 6 15 .327
.354 .452
2007 ZiPS
212 65 7 34 15 32 .307
.355 .481
2007 BJH
297 93 10 39 17 37
.313
.352 .495


Dellucci:

Season AB H
HR RBI BB K
BA OBP SLG
2006 Actual
264
77
13 39 28 62 .292
.369 .530
2007 ZiPS
313 81 14 46 46 80 .259 .363 .464
2007 BJH
354
90 17 60 48 93
.254
.350 .460

Granted, these numbers by themselves are nothing more than educated guesses.  I haven't seen Dellucci play much, and Gload's numbers seem outlandishly optimistic if only because you think he'd get a greater opportunity if he were that good.  Pretty much all systems say he can roll out of bed and start hitting.

On the other hand, if the Indians consider Dellucci to be a solution and a starter despite his shortcomings, it'd sure be nice to see Ozzie Guillen expand Gload's role -- especially considering he's shown the ability to hit lefties, something Dellucci can't claim.

No matter how the Sox use Gload, he'll be valuable. He seemingly has twice the range of Konerko at first, and he's a very good contact hitter who can swing the bat cold.  Still, I hold out hope that Gload's watching Tom Emanski tapes and he'll show up at Tucson ready to play some outfield at a slightly-below-average-yet-acceptable level.  I mean, if Carlos Lee could do it -- and judging from his recent pictures, discipline ain't his strong suit -- why can't Gload?

If we could get those numbers out of the leadoff spot, I think every Sox fan would be thrilled.  And if the Sox could fill it without dealing anybody and paying only $625,000, I think Gload would have to be considered the bargain of the decade.

Harold and the Hall

The 2007 Hall of Fame ballot was released today, and there are a handful of names of ex-Sox on there -- including one whose name is spelled incorrectly.

Most of what I wrote last year still applies, but there are a couple of noteworthy additions.  First and foremost:

Harold Baines:  He'll be an interesting case, if only because there hasn't been a more prominent player on the ballot who spent most of his career as a designated hitter.  There was nothing wrong about Harold in the field, but his knees couldn't handle it.  From 1987 on, he rarely played the field, and that will probably kill his chances.

The sad thing is, if he were maybe 5 percent more durable, he would've topped 3,000 hits, and I'm sure he would've had 16 more homers to hit 400.  Then the electorate would've had a true dilemma on its hands, because if they vote for career over peak, Harold would've met a couple key milestones.  There are only eight players in the history of the game with 3,000/400, so it would've been hard to keep Baines out of the Hall. 

Instead, 2,866/384 doesn't look nearly as impressive considering his non-spectacular rates (.289/.356/.465) and his lack of peak.  He had one brilliant season -- 1984, when he hit double-digits in doubles, triples and home runs and led the league in slugging (the only time he'd finish in the top 10).  Otherwise, he never came close to winning a batting title, home run crown or any other major offensive category.

Then again, Harold never had a bad season, even in his injury-shortened campaigns (I'll cut him some slack for his Age 41 & 42 seasons).  Solid batting averages, solid walk/strikeout rates, solid power numbers year after year.  The only true blemish is his durability -- he only played in 150 or more games in four out of his 22 seasons, which doesn't help him considering he didn't play the field for a majority of his career.

According to the numbers, the only true comparison to Baines is Tony Perez, who is a Hall of Famer.  But Perez had four edges on Baines -- a defensive position, a clear peak (1969-70, with five laudable seasons thereafter), two World Series rings, and he's friends with Joe Morgan.  Baines probably won't have as many people stumping for him because he was too damn quiet.  It's not a good sign when your organization retires a guy's number and nobody understands why.  Of course, that had a lot to do with the fact that Harold was still playing, but nothing good came of it.

At any rate, Harold had a fine career, and I'd vote for him if only to keep him around the ballot.  If he peaks at 50 percent of the votes, that'd be a fair tribute.

Bobby Bonilla:  He played 75 games with the Sox at the start of his career and showed promise.  Bonilla didn't get a chance to show much more, because Hawk Harrelson shipped him to Pittsburgh in exchange for Jose DeLeon midway through the season.  DeLeon wasn't anything special; Bonilla had a handful of outstanding seasons among a very respectable career.

Jose Canseco:  My favorite player growing up.  Kenny Williams provided for me the best three months I experienced as a Sox fan (before 2005) when he signed Canseco after Frank Thomas went down in June 2001.  For a guy who couldn't find a job before Chicago came calling, he was a monster at the plate for the first two months, hitting .285/.385/.531 and even stealing his 200th and final bag.  His back acted up, and he limped to the finish line.

If there were room for him on the 2002 team, I think Kenny would've brought him back.  However, with a healthy Frank Thomas, there was no use for Canseco, and the Sox cut him loose. Canseco wouldn't find major-league work again, thus keeping my Canseco #31 road gray jersey relevant.  The last game I saw him play was against Tampa on Aug. 6 -- Canseco homered, and nearly added another one later when he came two rows from hitting the concourse on a foul ball. 

Dan Wright also pitched six no-hit innings before his bid was broken up with one out in the seventh, after which he was immediately pulled.  After all, he'd walked seven guys and thrown 117 pitches! 

What a weird time that was.



The rest:

Albert Belle: I discussed his White Sox career in an earlier post, but it’s an interesting case. If he were a media favorite, he’d most likely be in. But that wasn’t the case, so he’ll most likely be stonewalled. Not that he deserves to be in – he’s a member of the Hall of the Very Good, along with his moody slugging predecessor, Richie Allen.

Goose Gossage: He began his career as a White Sox, had a dominant 1975 season as a reliever before being converted into a starter, where he was below-average. Then Bill Veeck dealt him to Pittsburgh with Terry Forster for the best season of Richie Zisk’s life and Silvio Martinez. That season under Chuck Tanner was the last time he would ever start a game.

It’s hard to say why Tanner started him, but it’s easy to understand why Veeck dealt him – Veeck was running out of money, and he couldn’t retain Gossage. Zisk was the centerpiece of the memorable 1977 South Side Hit Men; Gossage only pitched one year in Pittsburgh before going off to New York and starting his HOF resume.

Gossage should deserve to make it, but he likely won’t be inducted this year. I’m guessing his telling the New York Post, “God couldn't get out of some of the situations that I was brought into” didn’t win any points with Him or the HOF voters (who often confuse themselves with Him when it comes to voting), since it kinda insults both of them.

Tommy John: The former radio candidate for the Sox pitched on the South Side early in his career before he became famous for Tommy John surgery. John was a .500 starter, though more because of the teams he was on than his actual ability. He never had a below-average ERA with the Pale Hose, and once posted a 1.98 ERA over 25 starts in 1968, though that was also the same year Bob Gibson posted a 1.12 mark and Denny McLain won 31 games, so there you go.

As was the case with Gossage, the Sox traded a possibly HOF-caliber pitcher for a hitter who provided immediate results. He was dealt to the Los Angeles Dodgers for Dick Allen, who promptly won an MVP for the White Sox in 1972 . John performed well with the Dodgers for two years before having his elbow worked on by Dr. Frank Jobe. After taking the 1975 season off, he worked his way back into the league in 1976 and then averaged 20 wins a season from 1977-1980.

Equal time

Since a Sun-Times guy was singled out here a couple of days ago, it's only fair to take the Tribune to task as well.  This time, Phil Rogers tosses out a couple of doozies in his latest column.  One is just wrong, as in copy-desk-shoulda-caught-it wrong:

In left field, where Scott Podsednik had a better year as a hitter than he did during the World Series season, but not as good as a runner or a fielder, the Sox finished with a .280 average, four homers and 57 RBIs. Their .720 OPS was 12th, ahead of Cleveland and Baltimore, and they were last in home runs and RBIs.
Here's what taking a couple seconds to type in "podsednik" on Baseball-Reference.com tells us:

YearBAOBPSLGOPS
LOPSOPS+BWS
2005.290.351.349.700.754868.2
2006.261.330.353.683.562766.8

Okay, I got the batting Win Shares from The Hardball Times, but you get the idea.  LOPS is OPS against lefties, which plummeted dramatically.  It's scary to think that if Pablo Ozuna didn't have himself a career year, Pods' numbers would look even worse.

The only category Podsednik improved was in the slugging column -- and that was a step up, considering he increased not only the number of homers, but triples as well. However, he failed at his primary task, and that was to get on base for the thumpers hitting behind him.  Rogers' method of reasoning is close to judging Jim Thome's season on his total of infield hits.

Perhaps if he had been a consistent .330 OBP guy throughout the year, he would've been more valuable.  But when he failed to get on base for basically the entire second half (.296 OBP), that really handicapped the team.  There were too many outs wasted at the top of the order.

The second point is not an error, but more of a mere disagreement:

This is hard to believe, but Omar Vizquel and Randy Winn are the only veteran position players under contract in San Francisco. (Vizquel to the White Sox in a package built around Juan Uribe, Podsednik and prospects would be a nice get for Williams.) …


I wouldn't call that a nice "get" for Kenny Williams as much as I'd call it a "self-inflicted wound."  Podsednik isn't the issue, because 1) he doesn't have a future with the Sox and 2) the Giants wouldn't take him anyway, since they are adding Dave Roberts.

Now, the part about Uribe and prospects (yes, plural) being involved -- that's ridiculous.

Uribe for Vizquel could be considered a fair deal depending on what the priorities are.  Vizquel offers a much higher OBP, consistent offensive play and is a quality defender, even if he's lost a step.  Uribe has far more power, a longer contract (under Sox control through 2008) and, well, he's a dozen years younger

Considering the amount of flux the White Sox's roster will experience between 2007 and 2008, I'd take the player in his prime with the longer, reasonable contract over a guy who will turn 40 before the first month of the season is over, and who is in the last year of his deal.  I definitely wouldn't throw in a single prospect (much less prospects, plural), considering how barren the farm system is.

The only way this would be a "get" for the Sox is if they only consider OBP without any of the surrounding factors.  But only a couple paragraphs before, Rogers just said Podsednik had a better season even with a significant drop in OBP.  Things aren't adding up here.

Fun fact

I've spent a good part of the weekend awash in the most specific statistics imaginable as part of a test of Baseball-Reference.com's new PI system, which is everything it seems and more.

When I started testing it, I was trying to figure out which event would be suitable for research with this powerful a tool.  It had to be an event that didn't show up in any stat column, yet one that can be quantified categorically, and also occur with a fair amount of regularity.

Then while clicking through the Meet the Sox section, I read what I wrote about Aaron Rowand in his eulogy:

At times, his last name may as well have been “Rowand 6-3”, because a groundout to short was almost a predetermined outcome.
Had PI existed while I wrote this, I could've looked up how many times Rowand grounded out to short in 2005.

The answer?  65 times.

To put it in context of how often that is, Jermaine Dye finished a distant second with 46 groundouts to short.

To put it in further context, 2005 was actually the second highest rate of groundouts to short in his career.  In 2002, he grounded out to short once every 8.88 at-bats.  In 2005, he grounded out to short once every 8.89 at-bats.  In his breakout 2004 season, that rate was 9.55 at-bats per groundout to short.

Oddly enough, even while breaking his face in Philadelphia, he had a far better season in this category, with 10.94 at-bats to every groundout to short.

I think I'm going to have to purchase PI access when the testing period is over.  I've gone mad with my moderate amount of power.

Suggestion box

The start of December will mark the rolling out of the new Meet the Sox section.  It'll be a gradual process from the start of December to the start of Spring Training, beginning with the players not figured to be moved.

Last year, considering I had to balance writing all 25 roster previews with building the site, I kept the formula relatively simple (overview, scouting report, outlook).  Not to mention that the site hadn't launched when I was writing these, so I was mainly talking to myself.

This time around, Vince from Exile in Wrigleyville will be helping me out with the roster.  Along with that, I have however many thousands of words of recaps in State of the Sox that I should put to use, not to mention a small community here that can make profiling players more comprehensive and entertaining.

Here are some new ideas I have for the 2007 edition:
  • Top five/bottom five performances of the year for each player, like I did midseason.
  • A "random stats" section, pulling out numbers from various resources to highlight what a particular player did surprisingly well or poorly.
  • Projections:  Not only from ZiPS or the Bill James Handbook, but a competition amongst ourselves as well.
  • More links to stat pages, since Sox Machine loads faster for me than any non-Baseball-Reference.com site.
I'd also like to hear any suggestions on how I can improve MTS this coming season.  Whether you have new feature ideas, or rants or raves about last year's model, I'd like to hear it.  Either drop a comment below, or if you're not registered yet, shoot me an email

(Though I always encourage registration.)

(Here's the link again, in case you didn't see it.)

Happy Thanksgiving

The title just about sums it up. 

Apropos of nothing, I woke up before my 6 a.m. alarm (some people have to work today) because I was convinced that the Sox dealt Josh Fields to Cleveland for Grady Sizemore and Cliff Lee.

Moreover, it actually pissed me off because the Sox traded for Lee with the intent of turning him into a first baseman.

I walked about halfway to my computer.  Then I thought about it for a solid minute and went back to bed.

Enjoy the holiday.

Contract killers

When we look back at the 2006-07 offseason, the Angels' reported signing of Gary Matthews Jr. may be a watershed moment in baseball economics.

Quick summary:  Matthews, 32, was DFA'd by three different teams, then goes on to have a career year with the Texas Rangers in a very hitter-friendly ballpark.  It's only the third time in his eight-year career that he played 130 games or more, and it's the first time where he's had an above-average season.  Along the way, he makes a couple of amazing catches, which gives him the reputation of being a world-class defensive player, which isn't true.  He decides to test free agency, and in doing so receives a 5-year, $50 million contract from the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.

The Alfonso Soriano deal gave me pause, but at least he was the best player in the market.  I laughed at Juan Pierre's five-year, $44 million deal, but he's had the advantages of four 200-hit seasons and an average of 50+ steals over the last six years.  He has a track record, even if it might be on the superficial side.

Matthews is a whole different case, and I can see it meaning one of two things in hindsight down the road:
  1. It's one of those "high tide" deals, like Mike Hampton's eight-year, $121 million deal five years ago.  They scare the bejeezus out of everybody, and nobody comes close to approaching that level the following season.
  2. It represents a whole new era of baseball, and we have to completely recalibrate our idea of "fair value."
At least we knew there was no way Kenny Williams would make a play for Matthews.  That much was certain.

All I know now is that a deal for somebody like Coco Crisp or Carl Crawford makes a whole lot more sense than it did a couple weeks ago. 

Williams has done a tremendous job of insulating himself from the rigors of the open market thus far.  Paul Konerko's five-year, $60 million deal was an exception that suddenly doesn't look that steep, and the Javier Vazquez-for-Chris Young trade is starting to creep away from "going overboard" in the direction of "shrewd," though Vazquez has to definitely step up to help his boss out.

Jermaine Dye's uncertain status is going to be another test of Williams' resourcefulness, and he could at least cushion that blow by acquiring a mid-grade outfielder while they're still cheap money-wise.  Here are three possibities along with Matthews' line -- match them with their dollar values by their stat lines, combining their fullest seasons and averaging them by 150 games.  Contracts are from 2007 on, with all  incentives met.

Player
BA
OBP
SLG
HR
SB
BB
K ZR Contract
W
.285
.326
.425
14
22
31
111 .876
1)  5 yrs. $50 million
X
.299
.345
.456
16
18
42
79
.907
2)  5 yrs. $26 million
Y
.266
.338
.425
15
10
55
103 .874 3)  4 yrs. $28 million
Z
.296
.330
.440
12
54
31
87 .902
4)  3 yrs. $15 million


Here are the answers:

Player W: Rocco Baldelli, 5 yrs. $26 million.  Will be 25 next season.
Player X:  Coco Crisp, 3 yrs. $15 million.  Will be 27 next season.
Player Y:  Gary Matthews Jr., 5 yrs. $50 million.  Will be 32 next season.
Player Z:  Carl Crawford, 4 yrs. $28 million.  Will be 25 next season.

Either Matthews' contract is utterly ridiculous, or the other three's contracts are dadgum bargains.  My perspective is that even if the market accelerates at the same rate, Matthews will still be greatly overpaid in relation to his abilities, especially considering he's past his prime.

The other three aren't sure shots by any means -- Baldelli and Crisp have battled injuries, and neither they nor Crawford are even average at working the count, and of course there is the general peril of inexperience.  Still, those dollar values attached to their names are the maximum they can make -- if they underperform or get hurt, they'll receive less than listed.

It's been said Tampa's asking price is rising with each contract signed, but I haven't heard anything about Crisp.  If the rumors of the Red Sox courting J.D. Drew are substantiated, though, Boston's outfield will be getting awful crowded.

Any of these guys figure to cost a significant amount of talent in return, but the skills of a Crisp, Crawford or Baldelli on display during the season are almost overshadowed by the comfort their long-term deals bring in the offseason.  With two pitchers' contracts expiring and a gigantic void in the outfield after 2007, Kenny's going to have to go in one direction or the other. 

I guess this is why general managers make the big bucks.

Great, *now* Juan Uribe hits something

Dominican Republic newspaper El Nacional is reporting that Juan Uribe is wanted in connection with a shooting of an Italian naval officer and another man Friday night.  The motive?  They were passing by (not standing by, as the translation says) Uribe's SUV.

At least that's what Babelfish's translation is telling me.  Babelfish also tells me that Uribe is a member of the Average White and had 71 races pushed in this year, so hopefully this is all a mistake.  However, this wouldn't be the first time this sort of thing has happened.

Further bulletins as events warrant.  Thanks to SoxTalk.

Update: 11/22/06:  Judges have given Antonio Gonzalez Perez 10 days to present evidence that Uribe was responsible for the shooting, because the DA can't find anything on which to base charges against the Sox shortstop.  If Perez doesn't meet the deadline, prosecutors will drop the case.

Juan sounds confident:

Uribe reported Tuesday to the clubhouse of his Dominican winter league team, the Escogido Lions, saying he was pleased with the decision.

"I feel very happy because finally this is coming to an end. I am already relaxed and so I am here ready to get started."
----------------------

Update: 10/25/06:  Finally, some more news.  Mark Gonzalez of the Tribune reports that a ballistics test that could clear Uribe is currently under way.

Uribe seemed glad to hand his gun over to authorities, and has maintained that the shots wouldn't match up.  We'll see.

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Update:  10/18/06:
  Yup, extortion is what Uribe is claiming.  Some quotes:

"I'm completely innocent.  They're trying to extort me because they know I play in the Major Leagues. They sent word to me that if I give them 1,000,000 pesos [about 33,000 U.S. dollars], all of this will go away."

And in response to Perez's lawyer suggesting Perez try to implicate Uribe for money:

"Not only that, but during questioning on Tuesday, the Italian admitted that I wasn't there when the shots were fired. The authorities have my gun for ballistics tests that will prove I didn't do it."

Related to this unsettled issue is another one -- his alibi.  District attorney Robert Lugo said Uribe and his lawyers said he was 40 miles away from the scene of the crime, but Uribe said that he was in his house just outside the scene.  Before the shooting occured, he left his house to tell Perez to stop banging on a public telephone close to his car.  I'm not sure why the DA would lie outright, but it's possible.

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Update 10/17/06:  Uribe appeared in court, so at least if there was a sort of standoff between Uribe and the police, it's over.  He's still a suspect, and he shoved a cameraman, which probably isn't the smartest move.  Doesn't sound like he did any damage along the lines of Kenny Rogers and Dennis Rodman -- even though the latter incident was faked heavily by the "victim."  Uribe maintains he wasn't anywhere near the scene, but the farmer who was shot, Antonio Gonzalez Perez, insists it was a Uribe who got mad for no reason.

Kenny Williams is saying all the right things, especially in regards to the farmer's direct accusations: 

"One thing that I have learned over the years is to be very careful to jump to assumptions of one person pointing guilt at another person.  It's particularly true when that particular person being pointed at is the richest man in the room. That's why I've heard [White Sox manager] Ozzie [Guillen] advise a lot of the guys down in that part of the world, in the Latin American countries, to be very careful about their associates and the security when they travel."

Perez already has a civil suit lined up, which may or may not help prove his point.

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Update 10/17/06:  The police disagree with "Uribe's" assessment and issue a warrant for his arrest, saying that he's never talked to the police.  I'm not sure how Uribe's agent can spin this in his client's favor now, because I don't see why the Dominican police would single out Uribe.

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Update 10/16/06:  Mark Gonzalez of the Chicago Tribune reports that Uribe's agent informs everybody that Uribe says "everything is fine and not to worry," which is slightly comforting.  Still, we're dealing with sketchy law enforcement and an even sketchier media.  Say what you will about the American press, but at least you know what you're reading.

A/V club

I was trying to figure out why I was getting a bunch of hits from Google searches for "Joe Cowley" and "Joe Cowley sun times."  It turns out the Sun-Times' Sox beat reporter was being grilled by Mike & the Mad Dog for listing Jeter sixth on his MVP ballot. 

At first I felt bad for Cowley, because he wasn't making a whole lot of sense in that audio clip.  I thought his logic sounded fuzzy because he was being interrupted every two seconds by screaming jackasses with abrasive accents (and there's a simulcast in Albany!).  It's hard to form a coherent thought when you're asked a question, and then three words into your answer you're asked a different question.

Then I got a look at his ballot...
1. Morneau
2. Dye
3. Santana
4. Thomas
5. Ortiz
6. Jeter
7. Guerrero
8. Alex Rodriguez
9. Hafner
10. Pierzynski
I don't understand all the love for Justin Morneau, because Paul Konerko had a nearly identical season, but since it seems everybody had him up high for some reason, it's not one of my particular grievances. 

Here's what grinds my gears -- a vote for A.J. Pierzynski in place of Joe Mauer.  Now you all know I loves me some Pierzynski, but a vote for A.J. in place of Joe Mauer is for all intents and purposes an abuse of the voting system.  Mauer won the batting title, played sterling defense at the game's most demanding position and helped his team get into the playoffs, and he doesn't get a single vote over A.J. and A-Rod?

Plain and simple, Cowley cocked it up.

I could see the award going to three guys -- Mauer, Derek Jeter and David Ortiz, if the voters weren't concerned about defense, as his power numbers were incredible. Morneau maybe was in the top 10, but if he's getting lauded for helping the Minnesota Twins make the playoffs, he should pay the praise forward to Mauer.  Morneau stumbled out of the gate, and considering Mauer had to carry Morneau on top of Juan Castro and Tony Batista's dead weight, Mauer basically kept the Twins from getting buried all by himself in the earlygoing.  He dropped off a little as the season went on, but he still finished with the league's highest batting average and a higher OPS than Morneau.

Add in that he caught one of the league's toughest pitching staffs ace to closer, and I don't see how Mauer isn't at least Top 4.  He would've been my MVP, but he didn't even get a single second-place vote.  Here's my hypothetical ballot:
  1. Mauer
  2. Jeter
  3. Santana
  4. Dye
  5. Ortiz
  6. Carlos Guillen
  7. Sizemore
  8. Thomas
  9. Hafner
  10. Morneau? 
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The History of Pop Music in Four Chords --  If chord progression factored in to the 2005 Sox's pick for their theme song, I think they sold themselves a little short.  This is a pretty cool video.

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If you've tried to email me by using the contact form in the past and was miffed/insulted/upset when I didn't respond, it's not you -- it's me.  Due to technical difficulties, it's better to use the plain ol' email link I just added to the right instead.

Backstop plans

The Royals traded for Jason LaRue, meaning that the Reds are probably out as possible trade partners to supply a backup catcher.  I'd mentioned LaRue as a possibility, since the Reds were definitely looking to move LaRue first.  Now since they have Dave Ross and Javier Valentin behind home plate, the Reds are pretty much set for next year.

It's a nice deal for Kansas City, because if nothing else, LaRue gets hit by a lot of pitches, which helps to buoy his OBP even if he's not hitting that well.  It's even better since the Reds are paying part of the salary, and only getting a PTBNL out of it.  I wish the Sox could've gotten into that action.

So, with one candidate down in the Anybody But Sandy Alomar Jr. pool, let me toss another one in here:

Pittsburgh.

First off, I like trading with Pittsburgh because it's obvious they're not looking to win.  Since the Todd Ritchie debacle, Kenny Williams has won his last two trades with the Pirates, acquiring Damaso Marte, then trading him back for Rob Mackowiak.

The Pirates seem happy with Ronny Paulino, which means two guys might be up for trading: Humberto Cota and Ryan Doumit.

Doumit would be the better of the two -- he's a better hitter and has a stronger arm, though supposedly he lacks in the gamecalling.  But because of that, the Pirates might not be inclined to trade him, because he's still cheap.  Instead, they'll probably mess with his head and get him stuck between positions until he's pretty much useless, and then ship him away for nothing.

Cota, on the other hand, is running out of time.  He's shown flashes of pop, is decent defensively and hits lefties better than righties.  He wouldn't be worth much, but it's at least worth bringing in a new body to see if somebody can catch lightning in a bottle.  Quality catchers don't come cheap, so unless Kenny is willing to invest some money into the position, somebody like a Cota will have to do.

Notes from the Bill James Handbook

I went to Cooperstown this morning hoping to see the Comiskey Park walk-through in their virtual stadium tour exhibit, but it still isn't ready yet.  The only park available right now is Boston's South End Grounds.  I'll get some video of it when it's up.
 
But I did pick up a 1962 Nellie Fox Topps card for $4 -- the corners are slightly worn, but that's not a concern of mine. 

I also purchased The Bill James 2007 Handbook.  I've only spent about 30 minutes looking through it, which is not nearly enough to understand all the methodology and absorb everything.  So far, I like what I'm seeing.  There are 2007 projections which will be interesting to compare to ZIPS, but I haven't gotten through that part yet.

I've only thumbed through it a little bit, but here are some interesting Sox notes:

Offense:
  • A.J. Pierzynski ranked as the fourth-best bad-ball hitter in the AL; Tadahito Iguchi as the second-worst.
  • Not surprisingly, Pierzynski had the second-highest rate of first pitch swings; Scott Podsednik swung at fewer first pitches than Frank Thomas.
  • Jim Thome had the fifth-highest whiff rate when swinging -- but he had the fifth-lowest GIDP rate in the AL.
Pitching:
  • Mark Buehrle led the league in pickoffs with 10; Freddy Garcia allowed 40 stolen bases, 16 more than the next-highest total (24 by Tim Wakefield, who throws a friggin' knuckleball).
  • Bobby Jenks ranked second-best in the AL by only allowing 16.7 percent of inherited runners to score.
  • Buehrle had the third-slowest fastball in the AL, only behind Mark Redman and Kenny Rogers.
  • Buehrle and Garcia threw the least fastballs in terms of percentage; Jon Garland threw the fourth-most.
Defense:
  • Joe Crede was the second-most valuable third baseman behind Adrian Beltre in the Fielding Bible Awards...
  • ...On the other hand, Juan Uribe was tied for 14th in the voting for shortstops.  According to the Plus/Minus system, Uribe didn't finish in the top 10.
  • As we might've thought, Uribe and Iguchi weren't as strong in turning two this year.  However, Crede was only behind Eric Chavez in executing double plays he was involved in.
Baserunning:
  • Scott Podsednik was the 15th best baserunner in the majors last year, in terms of ability to take the extra base while not getting thrown out.  Possible replacement Chone Figgins ranked No. 1.
  • Joe Crede, Jermaine Dye and Paul Konerko rated as the 11th-, 17th- and 24th-worst baserunners in the majors, respectively. 
  • While Konerko scored -14 on the baserunner rating, his Molasses Mates, Jim Thome and A.J. Pierzynski, rated only -7 and -3.  So the other three must really be doing something special.
  • Of the Sox regulars or semi-regulars, only Podsednik, Alex Cintron, Pablo Ozuna and Tadahito Iguchi  ranked positive in the baserunning category.  Brian Anderson finished at 0.  Most surprising to me was Ross Gload's -9.
Miscellaneous:
  • Ozzie Guillen pinch-hits more than any other American League manager.
  • Guillen has the slowest hook in baseball.
  • Guillen used only 87 different lineups in 2006, compared to 112 in 2005 and 134 in 2004. 
  • U.S. Cellular ranked as the best home run park in the American League, and third overall.   However, it was the top home run park for left-handed hitters.  It does depress doubles and triples, but has little effect on batting average.
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Two games in New York, two wins for the Bears.  They've already crushed the Bills, so if they win next week against New England in Foxboro, I'll have secured bragging rights for the entire damn region.

The Bears had the perfect game plan against the Jets.  Like the Bears, they're great at playing with the lead, so it was more important to not give away any points than it was to score them.  They did enough of both, and now they're 9-1 and can clinch the NFC North next week with a win against the Patriots and Green Bay and Minnesota losses.

Considering Donovan McNabb's out for the season, half the Giants are on injured reserve and the Seahawks are kinda floundering, the Bears have to be the odds-on favorite to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl, for better or for worse.  The Bears haven't dealt well with the hype in their last two playoff appearances.  At least R.W. McQuarters won't be rapping this time around.

Garland gone? Not yet (Updated)

Ken Rosenthal reports that the Sox are "extremely close" to trading Jon Garland, at least according to another executive.

I really don't like the idea of trading Garland, in and of itself.  The Sox lucked out when he signed last December for $29 million over three years, because we're seeing what pitchers of his caliber are commanding.  It's not easy to find dependable pitchers, especially one who has won 18 games in each of the last two seasons.  Not counting Brandon McCarthy, Garland is the guy I'd least like to see go.

Then again, the rumored centerpiece of the return package might be John Danks.  He was only one of three 21-year-olds pitching in Triple-A last year, and I haven't seen anything that says doubt this guy.  Here are a few write-ups on his stuff:
The reports from the field seem to fly in the face of Danks' so-so hit rate and troublesome home run rate.  Then again, he's a young curveball pitcher.  We'll see.

If I'm Kenny, I'm asking for as much as possible with Danks, because Texas isn't going to find a better pitcher through free agency for the price.  Considering Tom Hicks is growing impatient with losers, the Rangers might pay through the nose.

Here are a couple guys worth going after:

Gerald Laird:  This guy is the ideal backup catcher, and I'm thinking the one-year deal the Rangers struck with Miguel Ojeda might have been made to insure themselves at the catcher position.  Laird has the three things the Sox need behind Pierzynski:
  • He's cheap.  Just over two years of service time.
  • He hits lefties.  In 152 career at-bats against southpaws, he's hit .355/.384/.520.
  • He can throw.  In his career, he's thrown out 41 baserunners in 96 attempts (43.2 percent).
Laird would put to rest rumors of Sandy Alomar Jr. returning in any playing capacity:
The inflated market also could dictate the return of Sandy Alomar Jr. as the backup catcher, although Williams wants to talk to Alomar before making a final decision. Rookies Chris Stewart and Gustavo Molina also could be candidates.
I can't put it any more plainly:  No.  No, no, no, no, no, no, no.

Akinori Otsuka:  It can't hurt to ask, right? 

Imagine the back end of this bullpen:
David Aardsma:  97 m.p.h. heat.
Matt Thornton:  97 m.p.h. heat from the left side.
Mike MacDougal:  96 m.p.h. heat with a good slider.
Bobby Jenks:  98 m.p.h. heat with a big curveball.
Otsuka would be a hell of a wrench for opposing hitters.  In between four guys who could have radar gun competitions, Otsuka throws his slider as often as his fastball.  It hits the high-80s with late diving action (which is why he has a 1.82 G/F ratio), and he precedes it with a slow, start-stop delivery that's nearly a balk.  He'd pretty much be a human change-up.

UPDATE:  Rosenthal reports:
Trade talks between the White Sox and Rangers involving right-hander Jon Garland have cooled, FOXSports.com has learned, though it is possible the deal could be revived later.
That's good, because the more I thought about it, the more it didn't make sense for either team.

On one hand, the Sox, with two starters' contracts expiring after next season, can't really afford to trade a guy under their control through 2008.  Meanwhile, Garland might be a difference maker for the Rangers, but they have so many needs to address that they'd be better off giving their own guys a shot and try to fill that need from the inside.

Cotts eulogized

Going through the list of casualties on the White Sox Eulogies section, Neal Cotts just became the 12th name added to it.  If Dustin Hermanson can already be written off, then Cotts' departure means that more than half the players on the World Champion squad are no longer with the team only two years later.  It's kind of sad, when you think about it.

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Neal Cotts' most important contribution to the White Sox might have been keeping the Billy Koch-for-Keith Foulke deal from being Kenny Williams' third nothing-for-something trade in two years.

Williams already dealt Kip Wells, Josh Fogg and Sean Lowe for Todd Ritchie, and shipped Ray Durham and cash for Jon Adkins.  When Williams, thanks to Jerry Manuel mismanaging Foulke into oblivion, swapped closers with Oakland and received Koch, who suddenly threw 94 m.p.h. instead of 99 after the trade, he just about became a laughingstock.

And that was before he traded for Carl Everett and Roberto Alomar twice.

READ THE REST

Cotts vs. Aardsma: Tale of the Tape

(Edge in bold)

Neal CottsCategoryDavid Aardsma
26

Left

6'1"

195 lbs.

James

3.027 years

4.52/193

4.66

7.88

91 m.p.h.

Bad

Arbitration

Played out
Age

Throws

Height

Weight

Middle name

Service time

Career ERA/IP

Career BB/9

Career K/9

Fastball

Secondary pitches

Salary

Coop-eration
24

Right

6'4"

205 lbs.


Allen

1.062 years

4.52/62.7

5.37

7.63

97 m.p.h.

Worse

Pre-arb

Another Thornton?

Hold your breath -- and exhale (updated)

Shortly after Kenny Williams makes a move I like, he just may have made a move that I wouldn't like, if it were true.  From the Boston Globe:
Former Red Sox shortstop Alex Gonzalez has received a three-year $15 million deal from an undisclosed team.

Major League sources indicate that the team could be either the Chicago White Sox, who are looking for an alternative to Juan Uribe, or the Cincinnati Reds. The Red Sox did not make an offer, nor did the Toronto Blue Jays, who also covet Gonzalez.
Caveat:  I learned from the 2004-05 offseason to not judge a Kenny Williams deal by the first move.  I thought he was playing his own game of good-cop-bad-cop when he acquired Scott Podsednik (thumbs down), Jermaine Dye (thumbs up), Dustin Hermanson (thumbs down), and declined to offer Magglio Ordonez arbitration (thumbs up).  It turns out all four of those moves benefited the White Sox because he had a wider scope than I did.

If this alleged move means that Gonzalez's presence (for three years, $15 million, supposedly) will allow Williams to deal Uribe -- once he's officially cleared of the whole shooting incident -- for a quality backup catcher, bullpen help and/or solid prospects, I'll soften my stance accordingly. 

Here's where I'll start:  On the surface, Alex Gonzalez for Juan Uribe in and of itself makes little sense, and the numbers spell it out.  Three-year averages:

NameBAOBPSLG2B3BHR
RBIZR$$
Uribe.257
.296.45427
420
72.862$4.2M
Gonzalez.249
.294.39728212
58.859
$5.0M

Did I mention Gonzalez is two years older? 

The White Sox have their reasons to be upset with Uribe, who didn't look very...coachable last year.  As bad as Uribe seems, he's almost better in every single facet of the game in comparison to Gonzalez to put it generally, so I'll hold my tongue until I see how Kenny spins this, if this report is the truth.  In summary:  Gonzalez for Uribe = bad.  Gonzalez for Uribe and a backup catcher who can hit = better.

(I can't wait to see what Julio Lugo gets, though.  Now there would've been a definite upgrade.)

UPDATE:
  Thank you, Kenny
"I will say for the record it's absolutely untrue," Williams said. "And I'll answer that question because there has been so much speculated that is completely off-base. I don't want our fans fooled."
UPDATE 2:  It was the Reds, after all.
ESPN's Peter Gammons is reporting that free agent shortstop Alex Gonzalez has negotiated a three-year, $14 million contract with the Cincinnati Reds, pending a physical.

First blood

The Sox and Cubs have pulled off a crosstown swap, with the South Siders dealing Neal Cotts to the North Siders for David Aardsma and Carlos Vazquez.

My initial inclination is that Don Cooper sees something in Aardsma, a hard thrower with control problems, that he can fix.  It seems like it could be another Matt Thornton situation.

What I do know is it'll be easy to research Aardsma, considering he's listed first in every baseball encyclopedia.  He replaced long-time alphabet-topper Hank Aaron when he debuted in 2004.

We'll have more later in the day in our Crosstown Crossfire blog -- in fact, this is exactly why we have a Crosstown Crossfire blog.

UPDATE:  That Cotts was only redeemable for Aardsma and minor-league roster-filler goes to show why dealing Javier Lopez for David Riske was such a smart move by Kenny in the middle of last season.

Lopez had never come close to achieving what Cotts did in 2005, and judging from his subsequent numbers in Boston, he probably would've been as shaky as any other reliever in Chicago.  But because he was lights-out in Triple-A, a team desperate for left-handed relief (the Red Sox) went for the shiny object.  In return, the Sox got a decent righty who, if the Sox offer him arbitration and he rejects, turns into an extra draft pick. 

Cotts, with his ugly performance in 2005, wasn't worth as much, but I still think the Sox did well to turn him into an interesting arm that can get hitters out if/when Coop works his magic.

UPDATE #2:  Crosstown Crossfire now has stuff.

Botulism buddies

Forgive me if I'm a little behind the times, but this Scott Merkin article is the first time I heard that Ryan Sweeney suffered a similar stomach ailment to that of Brian Anderson in Venezuela.  They even lost a similar amount of weight (10-15 pounds).

I wouldn't have expected that, because Sweeney performed markedly better while playinng for La Guiara.  The stats site is currently down, but from what I can remember, Sweeney had a decent line outside of a bit of a diminished average.  Anderson's was dismal, though he wasn't there long enough to prove himself either way.

Merkin goes on to say that Anderson and Sweeney will be engaged in a friendly-yet-fierce battle for the open outfield spot, which is fine by me. 

UPDATE:  Stats are back up, and here are the lines:

Sweeney:  .260/.460/.400 in 50 ABs.
Anderson:  .211/.263/.211 in 19 ABs.

(OBPs are a rough number, since the stats sheet doesn't list HBPs or sac flies.  Therefore, it's only BB+H/AB)