Sox Machine: Chicago White Sox blog

The end of the innocence

Ah, hindsight:


Of course, BPro was right for the wrong reasons -- they thought the starters would crash and the offense would be league-average, perhaps a little higher -- but this is still fun to look at.

A year too early, two years too long

The three-year, $15 million contract A.J. Pierzynski signed after the 2005 deal made perfect sense for the White Sox.  It fairly compensated Pierzynski for the services of a durable catcher with decent offensive and passable defensive skills, while only lasting through his Age 31 season.  Many catchers -- especially non-athletic types like Pierzynski -- seem to hit a wall around that age and face steep declines thereafter.

As of yesterday, it even played out how the Sox could've expected.  Pierzynski had a near-career year in 2006, is fading down the stretch this year, and can probably be penciled in for acceptable production in 2008 as long as Toby Hall is healthy enough to reduce Pierzynski's workload.

So that's why I'm completely baffled by this press release:


What on Earth was the rush?  I can't make any sense of this deal, and I like A.J.

Of course, we kind of know why Pierzynski was extended -- because Donny Lucy hasn't shown any signs of being a productive major-leaguer, and he's already 25.  And behind Lucy, there are a couple of fringe prospects (Cole Armstrone, Francisco Hernandez) who have seen little to zero time above high-A ball.  In other words, behind Pierzynski is a black, lifeless talent void.

Still, that's no reason to hand a mediocre defensive catcher even more money after a bad year at the plate by his standards.  Here's how his 2007 season ranks in Pierzynski's career:

• BA: .263 (second-worst)
• OBP: .309 (second-worst by a point)
• SLG: .403 (worst)
• OPS: .712 (worst)
• OPS+: 84 (worst)
• XBH: 38 (worst)
• RBI: 50 (second-worst, by one RBI)

On the other hand, he only has two things working in his favor:  He's walked more times this year (25) than any other (previous high: 24 in 2003), and his 24.4 percent caught-stealing rate is an increase over last year.  But when looking at the breadth of his work, this can be considered a new personal low in production.

There are a few reasons to believe that Pierzynski could rebound from this year, but it's equally easy to believe that this is the start of a downward trend that could relegate Pierzynski to permanent backup status by the time he turns 32.  And that being the case, I have no idea why Kenny Williams picked this time to give him two more years, and at a higher salary to boot.

This is the latest link in a chain of strange decisions by Williams, who continues to extend the principal players of one of the most disappointing seasons in recent history.  At this point, I'm having a hell of a time figuring out who's being held accountable -- unless Jerry Reinsdorf is back to blaming the fans again.

Should they stay or should they go?

Just when the Sox appeared to be free-falling their way to a top-three draft pick, they had to go and regress to their true talent level of a 70-75 win team.  Considering the tie-breakers favor the team with the worse record in the previous season, the 90-win Sox of 2006 aren't doing any favors, either.

So no quick fixes from the draft will be on the way, so now the next step is to figure out which of the Sox with hot Septembers can be counted upon to play well into next March.  It's not going to be easy.

Juan Uribe:

AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	BA	OBP	SLG
90	28	5	14	6	17	.311	.357	.544

Case for: We know the talent is there, for a week every now and then.

Case against:  Nobody puts up uglier 20-homer, 70-RBI seasons from the shortstop position than Uribe.  Even while nearly tripling his 2006 walk total, he doesn't make pitchers work.  Greg Walker obviously doesn't have any answers, so what hope is there?

Verdict:  Seek an upgrade through a trade.  If those fall through, see about buying out Uribe and signing him to a reduced deal.  David Eckstein is the only better option at short in the free-agent pool, and he's injury-prone already.  One bad hit-by-pitch or takeout slide could render him useless, for a higher annual price.  If he's the only option, they're better off going one more year with Uribe and look to the next offseason.  He's not going to make that big of a difference anyway.

Scott Podsednik:

AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	BA	OBP	SLG
55	13	0	1	2	16	.236	.263	.382

Case for:  After today's win, the Sox are 30-24 when Podsednik starts.  Nobody else is particularly close to .500.  He's also better than Jerry Owens in nearly every facet of the game, though Owens seems to track a fly ball easily.

Case against:  He's too expensive, too injury-prone, and not productive enough in between DL stints these days.

Verdict:  I'd be aghast if he returned, but I'd still like to know what the hell is behind that won-loss record phenomenon.

Jim Thome:

AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	BA	OBP	SLG
83	23	11	23	13	22	.277	.381	.699

Case for:  The slugging percentage is the highest for a month since his gangbusters April of 2006.  It's nice when people decide to pitch to him.

Case against:  He still had a spell where he didn't provide the power he usually does -- this time, it just happened in the middle of the year instead of at the end.

Verdict:  Um... he's fun to watch.

Jon Garland:

IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	ERA	WHIP	OPS
39	30	11	6	6	20	1.38	0.92	.509

Case for:  The numbers speak for themselves, but he's not fighting velocity or endurance issues, either.

Case against:  He's posting those numbers in September against some bad offenses.  There's no significant increase in either strikeouts or ground balls, so the opposition probably has a lot to do with it.

Verdict:  He doesn't get paid for bursts like these -- he gets paid for being durable.  That's exactly what he's been this year, and the fact that he's having his best month at the end of the year indicates that any shoulder knot issues or dead-arm concerns seem to be overblown.  That said, if Freddy Garcia fetched a top-notch prospect even with legitimate arm problems, what could Garland get?

Javier Vazquez:

IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	ERA	WHIP	OPS
41	42	16	14	6	56	3.07	1.17	.702

Case for:  Holy crap -- look at that strikeout rate!  The rest of the numbers aren't bad either.

Case against:  The same weak opposition caveat applies, plus the knock on Vazquez is that he can't string together these kinds of starts when it counts.  This season would fit in with his excellent Montreal years, but he didn't pitch in many big games up there, either.

Verdict:  Depends on how much you buy into the "lack of intangibles" idea.  Vazquez is getting paid less than market value for the next three years, so he has the highest value of any Sox starter.  Then again, he's the only one who doesn't rely on his defense.  Unless Kenny Williams is blown away, there's no harm in keeping him.

He cannot stress this enough -- California!

He's nothing if not consistent, folks:


I had Fast Times at Ridgemont High as the required dated movie reference with every Joe Cowley "Jon Garland is from California, which is inherently bad" item, but I audibled to Bill & Ted's Excellent Adventure at the last minute.

Always trust your first instinct, kids.

Broadway's first the second-best

Lance Broadway made a heck of a statement in his first major-league start, holding the Kansas City Royals scoreless through six innings, striking out eight and allowing only a pair of hits and a pair of walks.

Standard caveats apply -- he made the start in September, by most indications a great pitcher's month, against the Royals, by all accounts a great pitcher's opponent.  Nevertheless, it puts him in rarified air, as far as the South Side is concerned.

Broadway's inaugural start is the best by a Sox pitcher in nine years in terms of game score.  The Texan racked up a 74 tonight, one shy of the immortal John Snyder, who earned a game score of 75 for his 7 2/3 scoreless innings against the Boston Red Sox on July 4, 1998.

When looking back over the last 10 years (during which 26 different pitchers made their first major-league start in a White Sox uniform), Mark Buehrle is No. 3 on the list.  So that's pretty good company for Broadway.  On one side, he has the best Sox pitcher in recent history; on the other, he has a guy who played a role in one of the greatest trades in Sox history, when Snyder and Jaime Navarro were sent to Milwaukee for Jose Valentin and Cal Eldred.

Since there's no point in keeping it to myself, here's the complete list:

Name	Date	Outcome	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	Score
Snyder	7-4-98	W, 3-0 vs. BOS	7.2	5	0	0	1	7	75
Broadway	9-27-07	W 10-0 vs. KC	6	2	0	0	2	8	74
Buehrle	6-19-00	W, 3-2 vs. MIN	7	6	2	2	1	8	61
McCarthy	5-22-05	L, 3-4 vs. CHC	5.1	4	2	2	1	6	57
Danks	4-8-07	L, 1-3 vs. MIN	6	4	3	3	2	6	56
Glover	6-26-01	ND, 5-4 vs. CLE	3.1	2	1	1	2	3	53
Stewart	5-6-03	W, 10-2 vs. DET	6.2	7	2	2	1	1	52
K. Wells	8-2-99	W, 6-2 vs. DET	5.1	6	2	1	2	4	52
Beirne	9-26-00	L, 3-4 vs. BOS	5	3	3	3	1	4	52
Daneker	7-8-99	ND, 6-5 vs. KC	7	7	3	3	2	2	51
Porzio	6-12-03	L, 2-4 vs. CLE	5.2	7	3	3	1	6	48
C. Castillo	6-25-97	ND, 8-7 vs. KC	5.1	5	3	3	1	2	47
Rauch	4-16-02	ND, 10-5 vs. CLE	4	3	3	3	4	3	43
Fordham	8-19-97	ND, 5-6 vs. TOR	4	4	4	3	2	3	41
Parque	6-26-98	ND, 5-7 vs. NYY	4	5	2	2	5	1	40
Cotts	8-12-03	ND, 10-4 vs. ANA	2.1	2	2	2	6	1	40
Wright	8-1-01	W, 7-6 vs. BOS	5	7	4	4	3	3	37
Myette	9-7-99	L, 0-7 vs. DET	4	5	4	4	5	2	33
Diaz	5-13-04	ND, 6-5 vs. BAL	4.1	6	5	5	1	1	31
Barcelo	8-8-00	L, 5-7 vs. SEA	4	7	5	5	2	3	29
Clemons	8-2-97	L, 2-5 vs. ANA	2.2	5	5	4	6	5	29
Biddle	8-10-00	L, 3-6 vs. SEA	5.1	8	6	6	1	1	28
Haeger	5-10-06	L, 5-12 vs. LAA	4.1	5	6	5	6	2	27
Eyre	8-1-97	L, 1-9 vs. ANA	4.1	6	6	6	5	4	26
Garland	7-4-00	L, 7-10 vs. KC	3	8	7	7	1	1	15
Munoz	6-19-04	L, 14-17 vs. MON	3	10	11	11	3	1	-7

Guys I completely forgot about until researching this matter: Kevin Beirne, Chris Clemons, Tom Fordham, and Pat Daneker.

********************

Revisiting the idea of wasting millions on veterans instead of draft picks, remember when I wrote this gem?


Eriq Jaffe e-mailed me with another guy I completely overlooked, bolstering this point even more:


So there you go -- on a team with a middle-of-the-pack payroll, the Sox managed to spend the equivalent of slot money on a guy who never left Charlotte, and a guy who should've been there all along.

********************

Combining the subjects of draft picks and tonight's game, I'm still interested in why Kenny Williams didn't offer David Riske arbitration at the end of last season.

Riske, although clubbed by the Sox tonight, entered the game with a 2.38 ERA over 68 innings.  That's not a tell-all stat for relievers, but it would be the best in the Sox bullpen, even better than Bobby Jenks'.  His decent WHIP (1.23), decreased line-drive percentage and increased ground-ball percentage indicate that he's not relying too much on luck.

It seemed like a win-win situation back then, but this season's developments make Williams' decision more wrong in hindsight. 

We knew Riske was a Type A free agent, meaning the Sox would receive a first-round draft pick if he declined arbitration.

What we didn't know is that he didn't cost that much.  I threw out $2.5 million as a high-end estimate of Riske's services for 2007; he ended up signing a one-year deal with the Royals for $2.25 million, with a $2.85 million club option for 2008.

He would've been worth that salary with an average Riske year, but he's been worth every penny for an improved Royals bullpen.  He definitely would've earned his pay considering the state of the Sox bullpen.

Basically, whether Riske accepted or declined arbitration, the Sox would've received something for it.  Instead, they let him go for nothing, and the Royals are the ones reaping the rewards.

Jon Garland is from California, and thus makes me sick

For a guy who comes from the land of the "excellent" Bill and Ted, Jon Garland is no "Wyld Stallyn." 

In fact, given the amount of enthusiasm he shows on the mound, we could reuse the same headline for every time he loses: Beating a dead horse.

The too-cool-for-school Garland became the first White Sox right-hander to ever post 10 wins and 30 starts in six straight seasons with his three-hit shutout over the Royals, but for once you should follow Garland's lead and spare the excitement.  Because when you dig beneath the surface -- that's how the Clampetts made their way to Beverly Hills, after all -- you'll see the whole the story.

Even if he was thinking "surf's up," Garland saw his run support go "surf's down" even in victory.  He entered the game with 4.19 runs of support a game, good for 43rd out of 46 American League starters with at least 140 innings under their belt.

He only got three tonight.

As one of those Hollywood movies might say, "Houston, we have a problem."

You connect the dots, you see a guy with the laid-back, dude-the-place-across-the-street-has-the-best-chop-suey-ever-
I'm-totally-putting-that-number-in-my-cell-phone's-speed-dial attitude who sets the "whatever" tone for his offense every time he takes the mound.

Unfortunately, if you ask Garland to connect the same dots, he'd probably draw a sailboat.  That's where his mind is 100 percent of the time -- he'd rather be kicking back and "chillaxing" on the Pacific Ocean than rearing back and firing a few miles west of Lake Michigan.

It's an act better suited for Grauman's Chinese Theatre than U.S. Cellular Field; one that performs at the box office but falls flat in the eyes of critics.  It's the baseball equivalent of "Rush Hour 3," in that it gives you what you expect.  But it doesn't leave you wanting "Rush Hour 4," unless you're Chris Tucker's agent.

It's telling that Garland wasn't invited on the outdoors expedition with Mark Buehrle, A.J. Pierzynski, Jermaine Dye and Jim Thome, during which Mark Buehrle snagged a 200-pound-bear.  This is a clubhouse that likes to hunt in the wild; Garland only wants to be hunting honeys on Rodeo Drive.

So if tonight was the end of a White Sox career for the low-carb hang-loose, what's-up, avacado-eating, Napa-Valley-frequenting beach boy, it couldn't come soon enough.  He might look at the situation through the eyes of the only governor whose authority he recognizes and say "I'll be back," but Kenny Williams should channel the Governator and tell him "Hasta la vista."

Whatever you might call Ahnuld's language, it might be the only one Garland knows.  He certainly doesn't seem to listen to anything anybody else says.

Last week on the beat

Before the Chicago papers turn their focus entirely on the Cubs after Sunday, we may as well go through some articles of interest:

I like the feistier version of Mark Gonzalez in his mailbag this week:



At the same time, he showed some serious restraint with this question:


But this one is my favorite, for obvious reasons.  If only this were my question to answer:


*********************

Offseason idea time:

Scot Gregor brings up a name I haven't heard mentioned by anybody close to the club to solve the shortstop position -- Pittsburgh's Jack Wilson.

Unfortunately, the idea was a lot simpler when Wilson could've been part of a bad contract swap at the All-Star break.  Wilson, who's owed roughly $16 million over the next two years, was hitting .259/.317/.364 at the end of the first half.  Then two things happened:

1. Wilson hit .357/.408/.573 after that point.
2. Pittsburgh now has a new GM, replacing the inept Dave Littlefield.
   

Wilson's coming off a stretch that is basically the equivalent of a contract year in terms of trade value.  Wilson's contract is a beast for a weak-hitting shortstop, but a bargain for one with an-above average bat and a capable glove.  Williams would be taking the same risk on Wilson that he'd be taking on Aaron Rowand for his year, except he'd be paying with talent instead of straight cash (homey).

At least it's a different idea. 

Meanwhile, shame on Nathaniel Whalen for bringing up a name I hadn't heard before and hope to never hear again -- Pittsburgh's Cesar Izturis:


If Izturis weren't already Juan Uribe without the power and extra notches on his belt, this would make a lot of sense.  Alas.

Catching up: Pitchers

Revisiting the weekend on the mound:

Mark Buehrle:  After being sabotaged on many occasions this year by both the offense and the bullpen, it was nice to see Buehrle get bailed out by those two parties during an otherwise unremarkable start.  The 10th win ensures his sixth straight with double digits, and also gets him back over .500 for the season.  If Don Cooper does shut him down for the season, it'll be his fifth winning season in seven as a starter.

It surprised me to find out when looking at his splits that Buehrle owns a 5.08 ERA since the start of August, not all that better than his ERA over the last two months of his abysmal second half last year.  To me, it doesn't seem like he pitched that poorly -- he was only truly roughed up in two starts, and managed quality starts in more than half his outings (five of nine).

Then you look at the lines:

• 2006: .336/.376/.580 -- 5.35 ERA
  
• 2007: .284/.337/.441 -- 5.08 ERA
  

So in terms of runs allowed, either Buehrle was unlucky in August and September this year, very lucky last year, or both.  What I do know is that I'd take this year every year from Buehrle, especially in the wake of such a scary decline.

Javier Vazquez:  With 11 strikeouts in his start against Minnesota Saturday, Vazquez topped 200 for the season.  I covered this a couple months ago, but I think it's worth updating that piece to show how rare this feat is for a White Sox starter.

Javy has one more start on the season, and if Ozzie Guillen doesn't limit his workload, he'll have a chance to set the modern-day (read: not-Ed-Walsh) franchise strikeout record.  The list:

1. 269 -- Ed Walsh, 1908, 464 IP
   
2. 258 -- Ed Walsh, 1910, 369.2 IP
   
3. 255 -- Ed Walsh, 1911, 368.2 IP
   
4. 254 -- Ed Walsh, 1912, 393 IP
   
5. 215 -- Gary Peters, 1967, 260 IP
   
6. 210 -- Wilbur Wood, 1971, 334 IP
   
7. 209 -- Tom Bradley, 1972, 260 IP
   
8. 207 -- Esteban Loaiza, 2003, 226.1 IP
   
9. 206 -- Tom Bradley, 1971, 285.2 IP
   
10. 206 -- Ed Walsh, 1907, 422.1 IP
    
11. 205 -- Gary Peters, 1964, 273.2 IP
    
12. 204 -- Javier Vazquez, 2007, 209 IP
    
13. 200 -- Alex Fernandez, 1996, 258 IP
    

So Javy needs 12 strikeouts in order to top the list.  That's certainly possible, since Javy struck out 13 Royals Sept. 17.  It won't be easy, since he's scheduled to face the Detroit Tigers this time around.  If the Sox were serious, they'd bump him up a day to take what was Buehrle's start (now Lance Broadway's) in the finale of this series against Kansas City, since Monday's off day would still provide for him regular rest.

At the very least, even if Vazquez can't rack up a dozen whiffs, he can console himself with the franchise single-season record for strikeouts per nine innings.  Right now, he stands at 8.79 K/9 IP, just a notch above Juan Pizarro's franchise-best rate of 8.69, which he achieved back in 1961.

Mike Myers:  Since joining the team on Aug. 21, Myers has pitched in 15 games.  That's good enough for a share of the team lead with Ehren Wassermann.  Unlike Wassermann, Myers isn't exactly making the most of it. 

G	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA	WHIP
15	13	17	15	13	3	6	5	9.00	1.61

This is downright frightening, because it seems to me that they're giving Myers every opportunity to make next year's team, even though his utility is extremely limited.  They may overlook the horrible outings because he threw four straight hitless outings -- over which he pitched three innings -- before getting shelled again Sunday. 

Unfortunately, Boone Logan has been just as bad as Myers over that stretch, because a halfway-decent Logan would probably give the Sox no real reason to keep Myers around (aside from provenness).  Still,  considering he's 15 years younger and throws 15 m.p.h. harder than Myers, I'd bank on Logan outperforming the elder LOOGY in 2008.

And "bank" is a key word, because Myers' option is worth $1.1 million next year.  Logan would still be making the league minimum, so that's around a $700,000 difference.

Keep that $700,000 in mind, because the Sox PR crew is already rolling out the "next year's draft pick might cost too much!" line, which the Chicago Tribune has picked up on as well.  Basically, they're laying the groundwork to bitch about the possibility of paying above slot -- meaning $2 to $3.5 million -- for a top 10 draft pick next June.  Myers' potential salary pretty much makes up the differential.

Like every other organization, the Sox find a way to burn that amount of money each year.  Even on the fiscally brilliant 2005 team, Timo Perez sopped up $1 million for sub-replacement level production.  Kenny Williams doesn't even need to pick up Myers' option for this to happen, because they still have to pay Pablo Ozuna $1.2 million coming off a broken leg (although a healthy Ozuna has his uses).

That said, the Sox shouldn't be sweating an extra million for a top-flight draft pick who they'll desperately need to deliver.  The Sox's lower-minor system is practically barren, outside of Chris Carter and maybe John Shelby.  They had no position players worth talking about in Winston-Salem this year after trading Aaron Cunningham.

In other words, they really can't afford to let $500,000 to $1.5 million sway them from signing a draft pick they believe in.  I could go on, but the Cheat hammered on this scheme earlier today.

Catching up: Hitters

Notes from over the weekend:

Jerry Owens:  After a series against the Twins that featured a five-hit game, Jerry Owens' line now resembles a useful major leaguer's in some respects:

• Bad: .267/.327/.314 on season
  
• OK: .285/.347/.335 since second call-up.
• Very good:  .360/.429/.400 in September

The league-average OBP for the AL is .344, meaning that since being handed the starting job, Owens is above-average, albeit ever so slightly, in terms of getting on base.

That's huge.  The biggest problem with the White Sox's offense is that more than half of it is way too good at making outs.  Although we don't know whether he can sustain this level of performance, Owens has taken himself out of that group for the time being.

If Kenny Williams does his job, Owens will have to fight for his job next spring.  As long as he keeps showing up -- and two hits off Johan Santana is a nice touch -- I like his chances.

********************

Josh Fields:  Say hello to your most recent AL Player of the Week:


Of course, this streak came on the heels of a 3-for-29 slump. So after all the mashing, Fields' average is back to where it was Aug. 17.  On a brighter note, he currently owns a season-high in slugging percentage at .490.

Fields will be moving back to third after Andy Gonzalez cut his hand applying the tag at third after Fields' misplay Saturday.  This will be interesting to watch -- if Fields can look competent at third for a game here and a game there, that should dramatically increase his value to the 2007 club.  That will make it easier to cut ties with Joe Crede should his back not improve (or if he plays well enough to be traded for something of value).

The first step will be looking better than Andy Gonzalez on an individual-game basis.  After watching Gonzalez's throws in the Minnesota series, it shouldn't be that hard.

********************

Jim Thome:  The Gentleman Masher has nine home runs in his last 15 games.  He's finishing his season in quite a different fashion compared to 2006, considering it took Thome two months to hit his last nine homers.

Of course, that probably has something to do with playing in 20 fewer games this year.  This year, he suffered a significant power outage in the first half.

Thome still figures to be worth his salary, but Williams has to treat him like a 120-game player if he's to make an impact throughout the 2008 season, instead of in sporadic bursts.  The obvious solution: Turn Thome into a strict platoon player, since Thome's hitting .194/.302/.353 against lefties this year. 

Fields would be an ideal complement, but once again, Williams will have to find an outfielder better than Owens.  He hasn't done that in two years.

Go, go, former White Sox

Didja miss me?

Damn.  OK, well, did you miss this?



Yup -- that, my friends, is Aaron Rowand ripping a grounder to short for a 6-4 forceout.

Actually, Rowand had a couple of pretty good performances the last couple of days.  On Saturday, he had four hits and made a couple of really tough catches, one of them a slicing liner that forced him to change the shoulder he was looking over.  You know, the kind that pantsed Rob Mackowiak every single time. 

The only blemish came in the field, however, when he just missed on a dive and played a single into a triple.  On second thought, he'd fit right in playing next to Jermaine Dye once again.

But while it was fun watching Rowand and Tadahito Iguchi (two flyouts to right-center in two pinch-hit appearances) once again, I was more amazed at the Cavalcade of White Sox Rejects that comprises a significant portion of the Washington Nationals' roster.

1. Jon Rauch.  I was aware of this one.

2. Arnie Munoz.  He's back in the big leagues as a September call-up for the Nationals.  There's still no reason to miss him.  He still can't hit the strike zone, doesn't miss many bats, and he also has one of the worst pickoff moves I've seen from a lefty not named Andrew Miller.

(And because it's fun, here's the box score from Munoz's major-league debut.)

3. D'Angelo Jiminez.  His numbers were never all that bad, but I remember him being one of the dumber players to ever don the White Sox uniform, at least between the lines.  Zero instincts -- pretty much the anti-Jose Valentin.

At any rate, there are photo galleries for both RFK Stadium and Washington D.C. in the Photos section.  I'll be playing catch-up from this weekend later tonight.

At least the pitchers are going in the right direction

Jon Garland, Jose Contreras and Gavin Floyd each have two things in common:

1. They've each gotten the Cowley treatment at least once this past week.
2. They're each having thought-provoking Septembers.

Here are their lines after today's loss:

	W-L	ERA	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	OPS
Garland	1-3	1.80	30.0	27	11	6	1	4	18	.571
Contreras	3-0	2.25	28	33	10	7	2	9	16	.787
Floyd	0-2	2.95	18.1	20	7	6	1	5	16	.730

Combine these three solid lines with the improving performances of Jerry Owens and Danny Richar, and the fact that Josh Fields is still putting balls out of the yard, and it's shaped up to be a pretty decent September for Sox fans.  Even the ones rooting for draft position instead of wins aren't faring too poorly, since today's loss returns the Sox to .500 for the month.  If the season ended today, Kenny Williams would have the fourth pick at his disposal.

But back to the pitchers...

The nice thing about this stretch for the three aforementioned apple hurlers is that Williams won't be in as big of a bind in general.  Contreras might be convincing potential suitors that he's worth the rest of his deal, Garland isn't showing any Freddy Garcia-like signs of injury for those needing a pitcher for a year, and Floyd isn't crapping his pants in the big leagues, indicating that he could be better than Fifth Starter Hell.

What Williams shouldn't do is get too comfortable in these lines.  One reason is the quality of opponents they have faced:

• Garland: Detroit, Minnesota, Los Angeles Angels, Kansas City.
• Contreras:  Cleveland, Minnesota, Los Angeles, Kansas City.
• Floyd:  Detroit, Cleveland, Kansas City

Detroit and Cleveland have legitimate firepower, but the Angels are squarely middle of the pack, and Minnesota and Kansas City are the worst non-Sox offenses in the league.

The other reason: September is usually a pitcher's month.

Jerome Holtzman wrote a column on Feb. 19, 1989 titled "Spring training a lousy yardstick," in which he wrote that the front and back ends of the seasons favor pitchers the most.  In particular, this section stuck with me:


Of course, in 2007, the opposite is true.  Pitchers are having a more difficult time in September than in any other month this season, both in terms of ERA and OPS.

Historically, however, this claim has merit.  2007 is the only season in the last 20 seasons that had Septembers in which the final month was in the top three for offenses.  Otherwise, 11 times in the last 20 years September has been the best month for pitchers in terms of OPS allowed and ERA.  It has never been worse than the third-best month for pitchers, barring this season.

I'm not quite sure what's throwing the numbers out of whack this year -- either a bunch of guys having a September like Mark Buehrle's last year, an abnormal number of September call-ups getting starts, or perhaps just some really good offenses going nuts.  At any rate, we can probably say that September isn't anti-pitcher, so that's another reason to be cautious of these improvements.

That's not to dismiss what Garland, Contreras and Floyd have accomplished this month.  Even if you qualify their numbers, they're still quality.  I'm more or less saying that Williams shouldn't let this month cloud his judgment when it comes to pulling the trigger on a deal.  The three of them are probably better pitchers than their 2007 numbers, but not nearly enough to make up for the glaring holes in the offense and the farm system.

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Your 2007 White Sox in a nutshell:

Greg Walker:


Paul Konerko:


Walker's quote made me a little bit excited about 2008; Konerko has me pumped up for either 2005 or 2011.

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I'll be heading out to Washington later today, rooting for Aaron Rowand and Tadahito Iguchi against the Washington Nationals.  RFK will be the 15th major-league park under my belt, although it'll soon be the third dead one.  Enjoy your respective weekends.

College and coaches

The quest to find one Greg Walker success story has a potential candidate in Danny Richar, according to Scott Merkin:


If I were writing the story, I probably would've probably put this part a little higher.  After the way the offense has performed this year, I started forming the wrong idea when Walker's first instinct with Richar was to do nothing.  You know, Walk being Walk all over again.

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It's interesting to note the timing of that revelation, however, considering it comes at the same time Mark Gonzalez reports that Ozzie Guillen is considering changing some coaches.  Then again, it seems that Walker isn't on the hottest seat:


Walker, meanwhile, accepted a three-year contract last offseason with Harold Baines, Joey Cora and Don Cooper.  A couple of initial reactions:

No. 1:  I guess the Sox are still hurting from Man Soo Lee's departure, and I can't say I blame them.

No. 2:  How can anybody judge Shines when the Sox have trouble even getting a runner to second?

No. 3:  Shines and Kusnyer are the only two coaches on the staff who never played for the White Sox, meaning that Kenny Williams might be the first kid on the block to complete the whole set.  Two random candidates:  Jerry Don Gleaton and Daryl Boston.  And there's always a chance that Williams could pry Don Wakamatsu away from Texas to replace Shines.

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If the White Sox fail to finish first in the hunt for Pedro Alvarez, good luck getting an impartial evaluation from me.  From Gonzalez's mailbag:


I can't say I know anything about Crow, but that won't stop me from kinda sorta rooting for the Sox to select him.  Then again, I still think Justin Gage could've been a valuable member of the Bears' receiving corps for years to come.

And while on the subject of player procurement, the Cheat takes a good, depressing, in-depth look at the Sox's "talent" in the Dominican Summer League.

Erstad grinding to a halt

At the start of the season, you might remember this hilariously fawning exchange between Hawk Harrelson and Darrin Jackson:


Almost five months to the date later, Jackson issued probably the most open criticism of Darin Erstad's limitations from the broadcast booth all year.  During his first at-bat in tonight's loss to the Royals, Jackson said:


The discussion was then cut short as Erstad shot a foul ball into the Sox dugout.  It's improbable that it would've continued anyway.

Erstad ended up drawing the collar tonight, although he did drive in a run by beating out a potential inning-ending 4-6-3 double-play ball by half a step.  This performance came on the heels of an 0-for-5 night during which he was the only Sox starter without a hit and made two of the three outs in the 11-run fifth inning.

To say it hasn't been a good year for Erstad would be an understatement.  Since returning from the DL at the end of July, he's posted a line of .221/.302/.310 over 113 at-bats.  What's worse is that it's not that far off from his season line of .247/.307/.329, the worst of his career.  It's even challenging his injury-plagued 40 games from 2006 in terms of OPS+.

Compounding the pain of watching Erstad struggle to the finish line is watching Ross Gload, the guy Erstad replaced on the roster, doing Ross Gload things in the same game.  He drove in the first run of the game with a double off the tip of Jermaine Dye's outstretched glove, and added two walks on top of it.  On top of the offense, he made a couple nice picks around first base.  After tonight, his line is .298/.322/.459, playing half his games in a park far unfriendlier to left-handed hitters in terms of power numbers.

Basically, this situation became the sum of all my fears, going back to what I wrote when Gload was traded to Kansas City for Andrew Sisco:


...and following it up with what I wrote about the Erstad signing one month later:


While admittedly a big Gload fan, I'm not going to get carried away and say that Gload's absence explains the 20-win decline from 2006 to 2007.   However, is it fair to say that this series of moves submarined any chances Kenny Williams had of improving the team?  It didn't save the team any money, and not only did it cost production from an already troubled spot in the lineup, but when considering Sisco's "accomplishments" this year, it led to the Sox flushing two roster spots at the start of the year.

Williams wasn't entirely wrong to take a flier on Erstad.  Take his defense, baserunning, apparently better health and extra motivation, there was a good chance of getting a dead cat bounce.  The problem was that he didn't look at Erstad as an experiment, but rather a one- or two-year commitment -- all while he had a better guy worth more playing time rotting on the bench.

Of course, Williams still would've had to find center field insurance unless you would've rather banked on improvement from Brian Anderson (I wouldn't have), but I imagine it's a lot easier to make one move than two.

No laughing matter

OK, now that I'm fueled by a large Dunkin' Donuts iced coffee, let's play catch-up:

While talking to my dad tonight before the Sox's fifth-inning explosion that turned a 2-0 deficit into an 11-3 romp, he wondered how many laughers the Sox truly have enjoyed this year.  This game certainly qualifies, but you can count the entire year's worth on one hand.  Let's tally:

• Sept. 17: White Sox 11, Royals 3
• Sept. 2: White Sox 8, Indians 0
• July 5: White Sox 11, Orioles 6
• May 22: White Sox 10, Athletics 4
• April 18: White Sox 6, Rangers 0 (Mark Buehrle's no-hitter)
  

Games that should've been far easier than they were:

• Aug. 2: White Sox 13, Yankees 9
• The Sox took an 8-0 lead after the top of the second, only to to be tied at 8 entering the third.
• July 16: White Sox 11, Indians 10
• The bullpen nearly coughs up a six-run lead before Dewon Day, of all people, bails it out.
• July 12: White Sox 9, Orioles 7
• Day came in with a 9-2 lead in the ninth, allowed four hits on six pitches, and all of them came around to score.
• May 20: White Sox 10, Cubs 6
• The Sox took a 10-2 lead, but David Aardsma gave up four runs in a hurry and made us in attendance a little too uneasy.

That's pretty amazing -- with only a dozen games left, the Sox have only played five games in which they, Sox fans, Hawk Harrelson and everybody else with a vested interest could relax in the ninth inning.  Looking at last year, they matched the 2007 total with five routs in April alone.  Even when counting the missed opportunities, you still have a finger left over to salute the White Sox player or coach of your choosing.

It's just another example of how bad the White Sox offense and bullpen has been this year, not that anybody needs more reminders.

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Tonight's victory dropped the Sox further back in the Hunt for Pedro Alvarez.  With four wins in their last five games, they're now tied for the fifth pick.  The Sox aren't even in last place anymore, with tonight's victory giving them a one-game advantage over the Kansas City Royals in the win column.

The good news is that two of the chief players in this development are players who need to develop -- Danny Richar and Jerry Owens.

Richar's in the midst of a six-game hitting streak, and while it's plenty good enough that he has 19 hits in his last 58 at-bats, more than half of them are for extra bases.  After falling a double short of the cycle tonight, Richar owns a line of .328/.371/.621 since Aug. 31.

Best yet, he's hitting line drives.  He smoked three of them off Royals pitchers tonight, including a roped homer that just about clipped the top of the wall in center field.

While Richar has brought some unexpected thunder to the lineup, Owens has gone about his business quietly, yet just as effectively.  After going 2-for-4 with a walk tonight, Owens' on-base percentage improved to .435 in September. 

Even considering the small sample size warning, the turnaround in his walk-to-strikeout numbers is pretty dramatic.  Before September, Owens had walked only 18 times while whiffing 47 times.  In September, he's reversed course, with nine walks and only six strikeouts.  Obviously, his one real strength is nullified if he can't put the ball in play, so this is a pretty significant development should this improvement be for real.

The one drawback to Owens' fine month is that, even with the improved batting eye, he still has only managed one extra-base hit (a double) in 53 at-bats.  Sure, nobody's going to pay attention to his measly slugging percentage if he's reaching base at this phenomenal rate, but he's still counting on the guys behind him an awful lot.

It seems to me that somebody with an OBP of .435 should score more than seven runs over 14 games.  Of course, this is when the lack of pop hurts:

1. Owens has only been successful in six of his last 10 steal attempts.
2. No. 2 hitter Josh Fields had seven hits in his last 40 at-bats, and 12 strikeouts.
3. No. 3 hitter Jim Thome is only hitting .232 in September.

Owens is only truly responsible for the first part, but the dependence on the guys behind him tempers enthusiasm -- especially when considering that he's not going to hit .340 every month.  Without either a marked improvement in his stolen base rate or an increase in extra-base hit, the only column in which he'll make an impact from game to game is the one labeled "LOB."

He's a lot of fun to watch when he's running, bunting and slashing, but as it stands, the only way I feel comfortable giving him a starting job in 2008 is if he's by far the worst outfielder in the Sox's starting lineup -- and through no fault of his own.

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In case you're interested, there are a couple additions to the photos section:

• An update to the Cooperstown gallery, featuring the Sox's Hall of Fame plaques and better shots of the World Series memorabilia.  That's where I spent most of Saturday instead of on this site.
  
• Some photos from Thacher Park, where I spent part of Sunday instead of on this site.
  

Mr. Incredible, meet Tom Terrific

In a few ways, Jim Thome hitting home run No. 500 for the White Sox Sunday is like Tom Seaver winning his 300th game for the White Sox in 1985.

Tom Terrific arrived on the heels of a playoff appearance, but the Sox failed to recreate the magic of the Winning Ugly season during his time on the South Side.  No fault can be assigned to Seaver, however, since he performed quite well for a guy in his late 30s.  He hit the milestone late in his second year with the Sox in a memorable fashion, tossing a complete game against the New York Yankees on Aug. 4.

Seaver earned 11 percent of his 311 victories for the White Sox, just a notch under Thome, who has hit 14 percent of his home runs for the Sox.

Granted, I was only 3 years old when Seaver hit the milestone, so I don't have any first-hand knowledge of the reaction to Seaver's achievement.  But I can't imagine it wa