Wednesday, July 04, 2007 - Posts

Faint expectations

When Albert Belle signed a five-year, $55 million deal with the White Sox before the 1997 season, he had an unusual clause in his contract that allowed him to opt out of his deal if he didn't maintain the status of the league's highest-paid player.  Sure enough, after his salary was exceeded by the end of the 1998 season, he bailed on the Sox to sign a five-year, $65 million contract with the Baltimore Orioles.

Belle's didn't exactly live up to that contract -- in fact, he retired after two years thanks to a degenerative hip.  Nevertheless, that clause helped him earn an extra $25 million, at least.  And how many players have the Sox given that same clause to since?

Zero.  That is to say that the Sox gave a player a right that would benefit him no matter what with the opt-out clause, and they haven't been forced to do it since.

It's not the same thing as Mark Buehrle's no-trade clause, because it gave the Sox an excuse to not pay a guy.  However, an opt-out clause is equally desirable for a player who stands a chance to earn more money if the market allows.  At the same time, it can put the team that issues that clause in a bind, which is what played out in Los Angeles this past offseason.  J.D. Drew exercised his option and went to Boston, leaving the Dodgers an outfielder short.

But the Sox haven't been pressured into offering a player the same right, and that's why I don't exactly buy Kenny Williams' rationale that it would set an impossible precedent for the White Sox to maintain in future dealings:

"As soon as you do that, everyone who comes through the door to the negotiating table is going to be expecting the same.  Whatever free agents you go after, they will also be expecting the same treatment. Now, having said that, I can completely understand -- and I talked to [White Sox chairman] Jerry [Reinsdorf] about that today -- we completely understand him wanting and requesting it, and it's not really a matter of us not desiring to do it completely."

"It's a matter of business practice and how that's going to affect the next day, the next player I attempt to sign, future free agents down the line.  The ramifications just are... Boy, they could turn you into a team you're not going to enjoy seeing."


Oh yeah, because this team couldn't be more over .500 if they tried.

Belle was a special case -- he was one of the scariest hitters in baseball when he became a free agent.  Buehrle is a unique case as well, being one of only a handful of pitchers to win their first 100 games in a White Sox uniform, and he was drafted by the Sox to boot.  The next time a starter can boast all that in only 7 1/2 years, then I think that pitcher would be pretty desirable, too.

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I used to believe in Win Expectancy, but the Sox render it meaningless time and time again this season. I mean, look at Fan Graphs' chart from last night's game:



There's plenty of science behind that graph, but it's doesn't come close to representing reality.  Here's what a Sox fan's win expectancy looks like:



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Minor league round-up:
  • Pawtucket 7, Charlotte 1
    • Remember how I wasn't too jazzed about Lance Broadway's control in Syracuse?  It got worse in Pawtucket.  He only lasted 3 2/3 innings, allowing three runs on three hits while walking five.  He didn't record a strikeout.
    • Brian Anderson hit a solo homer, his fifth of the year.  Meanwhile, Danny Richar drew his first unintentional walk with Charlotte.
  • Birmingham 7, Montgomery 6 (13 innings)
    • Tremendous effort by the Barons' bullpen tonight -- Fernando Hernandez (three innings), Corwin Malone (two) and Oneli Perez (two) didn't allow a run in relief of Wes Whisler.
    • Victor Mercedes went 3-for-6, all of them doubles.  He drove in two.  Adam Shabala and Chris Kelly also had three hits.
    • Donny Lucy went 2-for-5 with a two-run homer.
  • Winston-Salem 8, Frederick 2
    • Cole Armstrong went 2-for-4 with a three-run homer, and Javier Castillo hit a two-run homer, and had three RBI on the night.
    • Gary Bakker didn't allow an earned run over five innings, and John Lujan picked up the win over 2 1/3 innings, allowing a run and striking out four.
  • Kannapolis 10, Lexington 9
    • Jacob Rasner struck out seven over 5 1/3 innings, but he also allowed five runs on seven hits and three walks.
    • Lee Cruz had a double and a homer, Chris Carter drove in two runs, and Francisco Hernandez had a three-hit night.