Sox Machine: Chicago White Sox blog

Programming reminder

With one game in the books, a new State of the Sox blog has been created for 2008.

If you're new to this site, I keep game recaps in a separate blog to make it easier to find individual games and events later on in the year.  It's not unlike a newspaper -- State of the Sox holds the gamers, and this blog hosts the sidebars, commentary, analysis, color, etc.

That's not to say games are free of color.  Or off-color, if you will.  I will reinstate the Week in a Box feature starting Sunday, with the hope that you'll add your input and your own selections for the various awards.

Plenty more on Opening Day coming up, after I hit Dunkin' Donuts for some coffee.

Happy Opening Day

The 26-man roster is complete, finishing up with:

• Juan Uribe
• Octavio Dotel
• Carlos Quentin

Predicted line for C.C. Sabathia: 6 2/3 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 9 K -- if the White Sox and Indians are able to get the game in.  The forecast, as of now, calls for 30 percent chance of rain, 53 degrees and a 20 m.p.h. wind from the south.

Top 10 post-spring training concerns

Before I begin, Joe Crede and Nick Masset have been previewed for the 2008 season.  That leaves Carlos Quentin, Juan Uribe and Octavio Dotel before tomorrow.

(Dotel would rate No. 11 on this list, but the defense behind him has been so atrocious that it's hard to get a handle on his actual performance.)

10. Jose Contreras.

Call me crazy, but I'm getting some good vibes from The Count.  Watching his final tuneup during the Civil Rights Game Saturday, his two-seam fastball appears to have more life, and his curveball is actually a curveball.  The one he threw today had a velocity in the low-70s, and he kept it low in the zone.  As long as he throws that one instead of the crazy-assed floater, he'll be in a lot better shape.

I don't think he'll come close to his 2005-06 peak, but he easily could keep his ERA under 5.00.  Considering his age, 2007 performance, inability to hold runners and his catchers' inability to throw them out, that would be a sizable achievement.

And because I forgot about it until now, here's video of Contreras warming up from a month ago, complete with Spanish-speaking Don Cooper:



9. Nick Masset.

We've discussed this at length the last couple of days.  In terms of impact, the last man in the bullpen shouldn't figure to have that much of one.  The issue isn't tied to performance as much as it is tied to evaluation.  If Masset shows no signs of improvement and he's still on the roster in late May, it'll be a glaring sign that the Sox just don't want to trust results.

I encourage you to drop an entry in the Nick Masset Release Pool.  As of now, only April 25, May 14 and May 27 are taken.

8. Gavin Floyd.

He's the flimsiest fifth starter the Sox have had in four years, and a relapse to Fifth Starter Hell isn't out of the question.  He had a tough spring (6.55 ERA, four homers in 22 innings), but the fact that he walked only five batters is encouraging.  He'll always give up homers, but those homers won't hurt as much if he quits nibbling.

7. John Danks.

While expectations should be heavily tempered for Floyd, Danks will be held to a higher standard, as he'll be counted upon to pick up the bulk of Jon Garland's slack.  That's easier said than done.

Overall he had a decent spring, but he experienced some control issues toward the end of spring, as well as some problems holding runners.  Neither of these things warrant red flags by themselves, but they're worth monitoring for a guy who was anything but efficient in the second half of 2006.

6. Orlando Cabrera.

The Sox most look forward to what Cabrera can contribute to things that aren't easily quantifiable -- leadership, consistency and on-field smarts.

But Cabrera is expected to give a boost to the team's on-base percentage from the shortstop position.  Juan Uribe is not a hard act to follow, but Cabrera is far from a sure thing.  Between 2004 and 2005, his OBP was only .308, and while he's improved that the past two seasons (.335 and .345), he is 33 years old.

It's never smart to make too much out of spring training stats, but his line -- .203/.225/.246 -- is worth monitoring if only because he'll be hitting No. 2 for the entire year, barring an offensive collapse.  The good news is that it's not his worst spring training ever.

5. Toby Hall.

He hasn't shown he can hit or throw one full year after injuring his shoulder.  Paul Phillips is a decent if wholly uninspiring third catcher along the lines of 2005 Chris Widger, but the Sox would have to cut Hall, and Jerry Reinsdorf really doesn't like paying players on other teams' rosters.

4. Jerry Owens.

Ozzie Guillen had penciled Owens into the leadoff spot against both righties and lefties before an MRI showed a tear in his adductor muscle.  Now we'll find out how much the Sox learned from Scott Podsednik's DL issues the past two seasons.

The Sox can afford to be extremely patient with Owens considering he's their fourth- or fifth-best outfielder, but any mishandling of this situation can mean a big loss in production from the offense.  If Owens is at all tentative running, then whatever worth he has is greatly reduced.  And if that's happening while he's both hitting leadoff and taking at-bats away from Carlos Quentin, then it hits the Sox twice as hard.

3. Alexei Ramirez.

The Mets' Joe Smith exposed Ramirez more than any other pitcher to date, striking him out on three consecutive slow curveballs with the bases loaded and two outs.  Ramirez swung hard three times, and swung early and over Smith's pitches three times.

Ramirez will be starting in center field, with Nick Swisher moving to left and Quentin and Brian Anderson on the bench.  It could be short-lived if he doesn't make some quick adjustments.

2. Jermaine Dye.

Dye struck out three times in an 0-for-4 day against the Mets, giving him 21 Ks in 70 at-bats.  Like Cabrera, Dye might have had a bad spring (.186/.230/.371), but it's not his worst ever from an OPS standpoint.  However, he's never struck out this often in the spring, for what it's worth.

He can't afford another slow start, because unlike in 2005 when he suffered through a terrible April, he doesn't even offer average defensive value anymore.  The Sox will be stuck with him no matter what, because he's earning far more than the Sox's other four outfielders combined, and he has a no-trade clause.

1. Joe Crede.

Tadahito Iguchi and Rob Mackowiak, two productive players with no health concerns, each brought back only an A-ball reliever in trades before the deadline.  Crede, who hasn't proved he's right after back surgery and has an agent who will force him to test free agency, might not even be worth an A-ball reliever to the rest of the league at this rate.

If Crede gets back on track and posts a .775 OPS or so with his usual glovework, then Josh Fields' disappointing demotion won't be the worst thing in the world.  But if he carries his spring scuffling (.172/.226/.276) into May, it's going to be awkwaaaaaaaard, especially if Fields tears the cover off the ball in Charlotte all the while.

The issue would have plenty of facets, as 1) it would force Ozzie into the uncomfortable situation of benching a veteran, 2) amplify the buzz about Kenny Williams' desire to free up the spot for Fields, and 3) bring the acrimonious contract talks to the forefront.    In other words, it could create a helluva distraction, one possibly so big that even Ozzie couldn't create a diversion.

Let the Snack Times roll

This is why you never make too much of what Ozzie Guillen says, at least when it has no immediate implications.  Compare what he told Mark Gonzalez a week and a half ago:


Versus what he said to Phil Rogers regarding his decision to keep Nick Masset instead of Ehren Wassermann:


I'm not sure whether to be disappointed that Masset made the cut, or somewhat glad my skepticism wasn't in vain.

Here's the thing about keeping a guy like Masset over a guy like Wassermann when the first couple weeks of the season are so crucial.  Look at the results from the season series against Detroit, Cleveland and Minnesota last year:

• vs. Detroit: 11-7, 85 runs scored, 89 runs allowed.
• vs. Cleveland: 7-11, 81 runs scored, 96 runs allowed.
• vs. Minnesota:  9-9, 88 runs scored, 111 runs allowed

As the run differential indicates, the success the Sox enjoyed inside the division didn't come easily.  Twelve of the 18 games against Detroit were decided by one or two runs, as were half the games against Cleveland last year.  Only again Minnesota were there very few close games (five), but the Doubleheader of Doom is pretty much the cause of the whacked-out run total.

(Interestingly enough -- to me, at least -- is that only three of 19 games between the Twins and Sox were decided by one or two runs in 2006, despite a near-even record (advantage Twins, 10-9) and run differential (advantage Sox, 93-92).)

The Sox have four off days built into April, but probably will be getting a ton more if the weather is as wet as the forecast calls for.  April's probably the best month to carry a specialist -- with the awful weather and the cold's propensity to help pitchers, overuse of relievers is hardly a concern.

Alas, Wassermann will join Josh Fields as an undeserving member of the Charlotte Knights, while Masset is essentially the designated pinata -- all because the Sox fear losing him.  I'm not going to rehash the entire list again, but it still strikes me strangely that the Sox are willing to foresake an edge for a much-needed hot start for a guy who turns 26 next month and has about 70 enviable career innings under his belt.  Or 48, if you don't count the Mexican League.  Maybe somebody should tell Guillen and Kenny Williams that if Masset goes to another team, then the Sox actually stand to benefit from his mediocrity.

At least we can take solace in the fact that none of the Sox's AL Central rivals have added any big right-handed bats.

Anderson previewed; Masset needs new excuses

For the first time in years, Brian Anderson is in Ozzie Guillen's good graces.  He'll head north with the team for at least the first eight days of the season, and thus, he's the 20th White Sox to be previewed for the 2008 season.

Of all the words Anderson has used to explain, defend and decry his plight, he might've finally gotten over it with these three:  "I blame myself."

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Those three words will also apply to Nick Masset should he be the last man cut from the White Sox.  He spit the bit in his final appearance of the spring, and it isn't because he gave up seven hits and six runs in 4 1/3 innings, because those totals are similar to Gavin Floyd's in his final spring start.  But Floyd didn't walk anybody, whereas Masset walked four batters, and that's why Masset doesn't offer anything to the club.

None of the quotes favor Masset...

Ozzie Guillen:  "When you have a bad outing late in spring training, that can't help."

Guillen again:  "I wouldn't say that it hurt [Masset], but I was a little disappointed about the outing today," Guillen said. "A good outing would have made it tougher, but we have to wait and see exactly what we need."

Don Cooper:  "If you look at Ehren Wassermann's track record so far, [every time] Ozzie Guillen has brought him into the game, he has gotten it done. He's an asset and he gets ground balls."

...but as always, the fact that Masset is out of options looms over everything.  And he isn't just out of options -- as The Cheat discovered, Masset can declare himself a free agent if he passes through waivers, since he's already been outrighted once.  Wassermann's wisdom tooth extraction only adds another possible out for the Sox, as it's not often you'll hear a major-league manager say that he doesn't know how a player is "going to react from the dental problems."

I just can't understand what the Sox are waiting to see from Masset.  I mean:

He didn't pitch well in Chicago.
He didn't pitch well in Charlotte.
He didn't pitch well in the Rangers system.
He didn't pitch well as a starter.
He didn't pitch well as a reliever.
He didn't bring his now-mythical 98 m.p.h. fastball to Chicago last year.
He didn't bring it to Tucson this year after having a full winter of rest.
He didn't pitch well 25 pounds heavier.
He didn't pitch well 25 pounds lighter.*
He doesn't strike enough batters out.
He doesn't get enough ground balls to compensate.
He walks too many batters either way.

It seems to me that if the Sox want a guy who can pitch multiple innings, even though he'll likely get smacked around for the duration, they already have a guy who can do the job.  His name is Andy Sisco.  At least he has options.

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From the Sun-Times' White Sox blog, the first comment on the entry regarding Joe Crede's bruised foot:


And the first comment on the entry regarding Josh Fields' demotion:


I wouldn't be so bothered if this stuff wasn't lumped into the same category as halfway-thoughtful online writing, simply called "blogs."

*Fun fact: "Nick Masset" can be rearranged to spell "Snack Times".

Know Thine Enemy: 10 questions with an Indians blogger

With the Sox and Indians set to start the season against each other for the third straight year, it's a good time to continue our Q&A series with rival bloggers.  Representing the Cleveland Indians: Paul Cousineau from the aptly named The DiaTribe.

Along with his work on The DiaTribe, Paul also manages the Indians in the Sporting News' Strat-o-Matic replay of the 1986 season, where he's currently tied for fourth in the AL East with the Curt Schilling-managed Boston Red Sox.

You can find my answers to his questions here.

1. Is everybody over the ALCS yet?

Being from Cleveland, it was almost a matter of just waiting for that other shoe to drop when the Tribe went up 3-1 in the ALCS.  While the collapse didn’t contain that defining moment in time that puts Cleveland fans’ stomachs in knots (John Elway, Earnest Byner, some guy that wore #23, and Jose Mesa still have that market cornered), it was made more painful knowing that the Rockies were waiting for the ALCS winner.  Watching the Red Sox absolutely roll up the Rox made that bitter pill the size of a volleyball.  However, the knowledge that the same team returns for the Tribe with the expected continued maturation of the youngsters to fill in some cracks is a balm for the open wound.

2. Is C.C. Sabathia's contract situation having any adverse affect on the team, or does it just suck for fans?

Early reports don’t indicate that the situation has had any negative impact on the team and it seems that Sabathia’s suspension of talks until the end of the season to avoid “distractions” may actually contain a reference to Travis Hafner’s contract negotiations, which Pronk has acknowledged as a factor in his poor 2007 because he was preoccupied.  It shouldn’t affect the team too much as most of these guys know that baseball remains a business and realized that as soon as C.C.’s agents saw the deal Santana got, they simply closed their briefcases and backed away from the negotiating table.

Outside of that…yeah, it sucks for the fans.

3. Because he pitched so friggin' well, Fausto Carmona saw a dramatic jump in his innings pitched total.  How concerned are you about his workload?

There has to be some concern about the number of innings that Carmona pitched last year (215 in the regular season and another 15 in the playoffs) given his age (24) and the fact that he threw fewer that half that total in 2006.  But the nature of how his sinking fastball induces contact and groundballs limits the amount of pitches he throws per inning, averaging a mere 3.57 pitches per plate appearance (that’s 272nd in the AL).  That being said, because he pitched so many innings, he still ranked in the top 20 in terms of pitches thrown in the AL last year and the fact that his previous high in innings was 173 2/3 (in 2005) certainly bears watching as Carmona tries to build on his breakout 2007.

4.  About the only thing that didn't go right for the Indians last year was Travis Hafner.  Will he be able to rebound?

Pronk’s 2007, compared to the standard that he had established in the prior two years, was the biggest disappointment of the year.  Of course, his “disappointing” year still saw him finishing the year with 24 HR and 100 RBI.  Nothing to sneeze at, for sure, but when his OPS had topped 1.000 for two consecutive years (1.003 in 2005, 1.098 in 2006), falling back to a .836 OPS in 2007 brought out the doubters.  I think that Hafner will rebound this year, to an extent, as he will improve on his numbers from a year ago.  Will he return to the rarified air occupied by the Pujols, A-Rod, and Big Papi?  Probably not, but an OPS around .925 or .950 with improved power wouldn’t be an unwelcome sight for the Tribe.

5. Bigger disappointment: Andy Marte or Josh Barfield?

This is not the widely held view in Cleveland, but I’m going with Barfield if only because of how advanced each player was thought to be at the time of their acquisition.  Marte has drawn the ire of Tribe fans ever since being acquired as the hyped centerpiece in the deal for the overly popular Coco Crisp and struggling in his brief stints with the parent club.  Whether or not Marte ultimately pans out, though, remains a mystery as his 2007 was limited to 57 AB before being injured and losing his 3B spot to Casey Blake.  Marte is still young (24) and has shown talent, albeit intermittently, is his young career to give hope that he can still develop into a solid MLB player.  Barfield, on the other hand, came to Cleveland as an alleged “established MLB” player with the idea that he would lock down 2B for years to come in Cleveland.  He promptly posted an OBP of .270 with 14 BB in 130 games in a more hitter-friendly park not batting in front of the pitcher, as he did in San Diego.  His range is impressive only when compared to his predecessor, Ronnie “Jelly” Belliard, and the holes that the Padres must have seen in his game when dealing him to the North Coast were ingloriously exposed to the AL in 2007.  Barfield will start the season in AAA to try to work his way back to MLB while the out-of-options Marte will try to find plate appearances in Cleveland.  Whether either player even remains in the organization at the end of this season is murky today – a thought that would be ridiculed a mere year ago.

6. Joe Borowski isn't exactly highly respected as a closer, but the Indians aren't the only team in the division to use its best reliever in the eighth inning.  Would you rather have Rafael Betancourt as a closer or setup man?

At some point this season, I think there will be a shake-up in the back end of the Tribe bullpen, more than likely precipitated by a couple of consecutive blown saves by JoeBo or maybe even an injury.  That being said, I’m not sure if I see Senor Slo-Mo (Betancourt) as the obvious heir apparent as I think that his phenomenal 2007 is unlikely to be duplicated this year. Talented young relievers like Rafael Perez and Jensen Lewis, to me, represent 9th inning options just as much as Betancourt does.  For some reason, I see Betancourt comfortable in his 8th inning role and, when the dust settles, I think that he will remain there – perhaps setting up Jensen Lewis.  As for Borowski, I think he’ll be relegated to middle relief at some point…that is, if his arm holds up all season.

7.   How do you see the corner outfield situation playing out?

Matt Holliday and Vlad Guerrero should iron things out.

Oh, you mean seriously?  I’d like to see the Indians phase out the veterans in LF (Jason Michaels and David Dellucci, lovingly referred to as Dellichaels) as the season progresses with their plate appearances eventually going to Ben Francisco (at this point slated to start the season in AAA after winning the International League batting title in 2007) and Shin-Soo Choo (or Big League Choo) who is scheduled to return from an elbow injury in May or June.  RF should belong to Frank the Tank Gutierrez, if only for his defensive prowess, as the promise that he showed at the plate in 2007 merits his inclusion in the everyday lineup.  In an ideal world, I’d see Francisco and Gutierrez flanking Sizemore with Choo as the LH complement off the bench, but it’s going to take some roster shuffling to make that happen.  If one of the corners is deemed to be lacking by July 31st of this year, a rent-a-player for the stretch run could be in the cards…but that should be explored only if the internal options have been exhausted.

8. Even though he's entering his sixth season as manager, I can't say I have any grip on Eric Wedge's true ability -- for a manager who's overseen a successful rebuilding effort, he has a lot of bona fide disappointments on his resume.  How would you rate him?

I’d say he’s a pretty by-the-book, vanilla manager when it comes to game strategy, lineup construction, and bullpen usage.  His greatest attribute is the even keel that he brings to the clubhouse, bringing consistency and steadiness to a young team, as much as it drives Tribe fans crazy to constantly hear the phrases “respecting the game”, “ability to separate”, “grinding it out”, and “taking it game to game”.  I have no idea if this plays in the locker room, if this is even the language that Wedge uses in front of his team, or if he just hates talking to the media and giving them anything of worth.  But these old, tired clichés have worked their way into comments by Indian players, so they must be buying into it somewhat…or at least are reading from a list of Wedgisms when approached by reporters.  Wedge’s greatest downfall, however, seems to be a predilection to choose a few players (generally veterans) and stick with them far too long, when it is obvious to even the most obtuse fan that better alternatives exist.  Maybe sticking with vets is part of “respecting the game” or maybe it’s just bullheadedness.

9.  Progressive Field?  Really?

While the moniker of “The Jake” became part of any Clevelander’s vocabulary since 1994, a good deal of that can be attributed to the success that the team enjoyed in the ballpark.  Would it be nice if it wasn’t called “Progressive Field”?  Sure, it reeks of the corporate America (though Jacobs is really just the old owner’s name and was bestowed on the park mere weeks before the grand opening when nobody came up enough cash in 1994 for naming rights), but isn’t this the direction that the names of these stadiums is going anyway?

I suppose there are worse names that spring to mind…like The Cell, or maybe The Joan.

Speaking of The Joan, given the choice of picking a wireless company pitched by Catherine Zeta-Jones or one pitched by Joan Cusack, which one are you picking?  

Yeah, I’m pretty shallow too…when looking for a car recently, I couldn’t help but thinking that I had to “put Mercury on my list”.

10. Who's your favorite White Sox player?

While (or maybe because) he has yet to play for the White Sox, I’ll go with Nick Swisher.  The fact that his player photo on ESPN from last year looks like he just emerged from a college dorm room after a late-night viewing of “Dazed and Confused” tops the list, but Swisher is a quality hitter (who may or may not be able to play CF) who should improve the OBP of the Sox immediately.  I’ll be interested to see how his free-wheeling personality fits in with Ozzie, A.J., and the rest of the Boys in Black, but until I hear Hawk Harrelson imply that Swisher has the ability to turn water into wine, Swish gets the nod.

A Swish wish comes true

For a week, at least:


I'm officially ready for the season to begin, because we'll finally get an extended look at what the Sox offense looks like with a non-traditional leadoff hitter.  This is something I've advocated many, many times over the last two years, not only with Swisher, but with other non-speedsters like Rob Mackowiak and Ross Gload.

It's entirely possible that Swisher might fail leading off in the same fashion that great setup men sometimes struggle to record the last three outs in a ballgame.  I'm willing to take that risk, because if a leadoff hitter's job is to get on base, the numbers say that he's the second-most qualified player on the team.  And if the leadoff hitter's secondary job is to see a lot of pitches, the eye says that you'll be hard-pressed to find somebody more comfortable with two strikes on him than Swishalicious.

At the very least, it's something new.  We've seen what the offense looks like when a guy with sketchy on-base skills catches fire (pretty good).  We've seen what it looks like when the fast guys can't reach base (dysfunctional at best).  We haven't really seen what it looks like when a non-speed burner who can get on base bats first, and I'm excited to see the outcome.

(I'm also wondering how many 4-6 forceouts we'll see in the first week if Swisher leads off with a walk.  But that's neither here nor there right now.)

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Other brief notes:

*Gavin Floyd was roughed up for six runs in five innings Wednesday, so a fast start by Swisher might be more necessary than merely appreciated.  The Cheat has some quality thoughts on Floyd's non-quality start.

*Alexei Ramirez hit a grand slam off Ben Sheets, one of four homers Sheets allowed on the day.  I do like Ramirez hitting ninth, as he did today.  If his hot March turns into a hot April, he'll give Swisher somebody to drive in.  If he falls back to Earth, he'll be exposed as infrequently in a game as possible.

*Deja Vu: After beating Sheets pretty thoroughly, Derrick Turnbow, Guillermo Mota and Saloman Torres recorded 1-2-3 innings, which brought back memories of the Sox's famous 0-for-61 streak.

*Scott Linebrink pitched a scoreless inning today.  Octavio Dotel was roughed up for four runs in the same span.  If I looked at their lines only, I probably would've put the wrong names next to them:

• Linebrink: 9 2/3 IP, 11 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 6 K
• Dotel:  9 1/3 IP, 14 H, 12 ER, 4 BB, 11 K

Dotel's strikeouts are a dead giveaway, though.

*Speaking of lines, the much-maligned Toby Hall improved his with a pinch-hit single.  He's now above the Ron Karkovice Line.  Joe Crede and Jermaine Dye also had a much-needed hit apiece.

*Alex Cintron was released by the Cubs.  He actually hit .325 this spring, so thankfully the Sox are awash in middle infielder types.

That was the year that was

One year ago today, Toby Hall separated his shoulder while playing first base in a spring training game.

One year from that date, Toby Hall needed an undetermined amount of meetings to emphasize that he could throw to second on the fly.

Time flies when you're batting .071.

To his replacement, Pods bequeaths his groin

Kenny Williams should watch his words, because "a couple of years ago" is actually 2006.  Unfortunately, Jerry Owens has that year's Scott Podsednik's act down pat -- after battling it for four weeks, Owens will start the season on the DL due to a small tear in his right adductor muscle.  Said Owens:


Tell me about it.  My groin is never where I want it to be, either.

*golf swing*

This move has a little bit of a trickle down effect:

No. 1:  Both Carlos Quentin and Brian Anderson are looking good for the Opening Day roster.

We know Anderson has mashed all spring long, but Quentin has made up considerable ground over the past couple weeks.  He started off spring on shaky footing, falling into some bad habits according to Ozzie Guillen as he tested his repaired non-throwing shoulder in game action for the first time early on.

Here's where the two stand today:

• Anderson: .355/.452/.661, 10 XBH, 11 BB in 74 PA
  
• Quentin: .324/.351/..559, 6 XBH, 1 BB in 37 PA
  

And while we can knock Anderson for always hitting well in spring training because he played high school and college ball in Tucson, Quentin can be tagged with a similar caveat.  The brightest spot on his resume is his stellar Triple-A numbers, and guess where he played half his games in Triple-A?  And unlike Anderson, Quentin actually played in Tucson Electric Park.

I still think Quentin's a better bet to produce since Anderson is walking at an unprecedented rate, but Anderson should be manning center if the aim is to limit the liability that is Jermaine Dye in right field.

No. 2:  Who will bat leadoff?

Pablo Ozuna is penciled in that spot against C.C. Sabathia Opening Day, but the picture clouds up from then on.

To me, the obvious choice is still Nick Swisher, now more than ever before.  Here are the career OBPs of the four hitters preceding Thome:

• Lineup X: .279, .295, .361, .321
• Lineup Y:  .328, .279, .322, .321

Lineup Y might be a little prettier because three of the four OBPs begin with a "3," but Lineup X is the only plausible scenario in which the Sox would have an above-average chance of getting somebody on base before the heart of the order comes to the plate.  Otherwise, it's almost like the Sox would be batting Jim Thome leadoff, except they'd only get eight innings at the plate instead of nine.

The only drawback is that Orlando Cabrera is still batting second, and he's grounded into 10 or more double plays in each of the last three seasons despite the presence of some pretty speedy runners ahead of him in Chone Figgins and Reggie Willits.  But there's no use in fighting that battle, because Cabrera is the quintessential No. 2 hitter, dadgummit.

No. 3:  Will this alter the course at second base?

Ozzie Guillen named Juan Uribe the starter at second, but if ¡Profundo! leaves his hot bat in Arizona, I wonder if Ozzie might feel pressured to overplay Ozuna or stick Alexei Ramirez in the leadoff spot instead.  It's nothing to expound upon at this point, but it's certainly real enough to mention in passing.

I'm not going to cheer Owens' injury, because he has the longest track record of getting on base compared to Quentin and Anderson.  However, we know what Owens is going to do.  He's going to slap the ball, he's going to rack up mostly singles, earn the occasional walk.  He'll be lucky to top a .350 OBP.  He'll steal a good number of bases, play a good center field but won't throw anybody out.

Anderson and Quentin can do so much more.  They can also do less, as they've shown, but a roster with both of them on it gives Sox fans more of a reason to watch.  That's a little counterintuitive, now that I think about it, since the excitement Owens creates on the basepaths is his main drawing card.

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Before we leave the subject of the outfield, look at this line after an 0-for-4, three-strikeout day:

.183/.234/.350, 11/60, 3 BB, 18 K

Is anybody concerned about Jermaine Dye besides me?

A new look at Old Comiskey coming to Cooperstown

COOPERSTOWN -- White Sox fans will be able to walk through Comiskey Park once again this summer.  However, they'll have to go 761 miles east from what is now a U.S. Cellular Field parking lot to find it.

In a couple months, the National Baseball Hall of Fame will launch a virtual tour of Comiskey Park, the third CAD-rendered ballpark in the museum's "Sacred Ground" exhibit, joining Boston's South End Grounds and Brooklyn's Ebbetts Field.

Comiskey Park was chosen to represent the steel and concrete era due, said exhibit curator Lenny DiFranza, "because it's distinctive in many ways and had a long history."

Of course, that history isn't exactly a sparkling one, starting with the year the stadium will be designed for: 1919.  DiFranza said that year was chosen to give fans a look at a park most Sox fans didn't see in their lifetime.

He also adds the other reason:

"For good or bad, it's the most famous year in the park's history."



Based on blueprints found during demolition of the park in an elevator shaft for J. Lewis Comiskey's use and photos from the Black Sox era, the park in its 1919 state sports a different look in many respects from its latter-day appearance.

The exterior of the park is original brick work (not the white paint Bill Veeck applied to it in 1960) and proper signage (not the "Comiskey Park" painted on the brick in green).

The tour flies you in through the arches and pans the outfield seating, which consisted of only wooden bleachers in 1919.  The double deck at that time only extended halfway down the foul line, and the rest wouldn't be added for another 10 years.  Without the second level, the Illinois Instutute of Technology building -- named the Armour Institute of Technology back then -- is visible in the backdrop, without the Dan Ryan in between.

It's unusual to see Comiskey Park without a scoreboard dominating the backdrop.  In 1919, the center field board was long and rectangular in design, and only about 20 percent of it was used to give an account of the game.  Large advertisements occupied the rest of the space, including a Chicago Tribune ad that spanned the entire length across the top, and one for Pluto Water, which was a popular laxative in the early 20th century.

(At first thought, it's hard to imagine a Dulcolax ad anywhere in a stadium nowadays.  Then again, when Viagara ads scroll behind home plate during a broadcast and Flomax is a corporate partner, bodily functions are still a big part of the picture.  Too big, probably.)

Virtual Comiskey is still a couple months away from completion, DiFranza said.  The structure of the park has been established, but details such as seating, brickwork and infield dirt dimensions have yet to be finalized.

Also in the works are fact boxes that highlight specific features of Comiskey Park and its history, potentially including breakouts for:

• The signature arches that defined the look of the park.
• The evolution of the scoreboard, from its unremarkable beginning to Veeck's exploding monstrosity.
  
• The grounds themselves, including the infield Emil Bossard would grossly manipulate to the Sox's advantage and the fire hoses for foul lines.
• The history of the Negro League All-Star games, which Comiskey hosted for many years.
• Disco Demoliton Night.

When finished, the tour should provide an interesting contrast to its virtual counterpart, Ebbetts Field.  While the home of the Brooklyn Dodgers has been romanticized and its features have served as the inspiration for the neo-retro wave of current ballparks, Comiskey Park is largely overlooked by nostalgists because many parts of the park, along with some events that took place inside it, could be considered the antithesis of charming.

Throughout much of its history, Comiskey Park, DiFranza said, was "disrespected around the baseball world, and even in Chicago by the media.  The White Sox often had to defend it."

Sox fans often find themselves doing the same thing, because warts and all, it's the place where they saw their first big-league game.  The virtual tour may not recreate the entire Comiskey experience -- the quaking of the foundation when the crowd had reason to cheer, the chipped and flaking paint on the bricks, seats and railings, the streams of beer flowing down depressions in the concrete -- but at the very least, they can roam the grandstands again and remember the sight lines.

The new perspective is welcome, because the only thing you can see at 35th and Shields now is asphault.

Logan previewed, position battles winding down

Considering the weather isn't warming up, there may be no better sign that the White Sox are nearing Opening Day than seeing the season preview for the team LOOGY.  With the completion of Boone Logan's 2008 preview, we're officially 80 percent there.

Octavio Dotel and Juan Uribe will be up next, though perhaps not in that order.  The remaining battles:

Joe Crede vs. Josh Fields.  With 85 percent of precincts reporting, we're declaring Crede the winner.  Mark Gonzalez seems more certain about Fields' fate...


...than Joe Cowley, but not by much:


I like what Fields had to say -- he showed his disappointment without disrespect, and I'd rather see emotion than a bland "whatever's best for the team" quote that will leave people guessing, anyway.

He's right to be a little down, because going back to Triple-A puts him in a no-win situation.  It's kind of like a major college basketball program playing a decent mid-major on the road during the regular season.  If he succeeds, that's what he's supposed to do and it doesn't really add much to his case.  If he trips up, it's embarrassing and the doubts start to pile up for merely being human.

Major props to Cowley for the Ben Davis reference, by the way.  I like when writers go a little bit over the heads of casual readers once in a while.

Nick Masset vs. Ehren Wassermann:  Wassermann took a major step forward in today's game, pitching 1 2/3 scoreless innings in relief of a struggling John Danks.  But Masset pitched a scoreless inning as well, although he hit a batter.  Gonzalez continues to stump for Wassermann, and I hope he's right:


Carlos Quentin vs. Brian Anderson:  Anderson has done everything in his power to earn the fourth outfielder spot -- a homer today boosted his line to .362/.464/.690, and he threw out his fourth runner of the spring as well.  Ozzie Guillen has heaped an unprecedented amount of praise on Anderson, saying this is the B.A. he'd been expecting all along.

So why is Ozzie hesitating to call Anderson a lock?


Considering Anderson is a terrific defender at all three outfield positions and bats righty, he pretty much fits the description of what the Sox need right now -- even though I'm a Quentin fan and hope to see him contribute with the Sox sooner rather than later.

On the other hand, Anderson's stellar performance might mean he actually has trade value for the first time in a couple years, and falling flat on his face in April with irregular at-bats might destroy what he's building.  Of course, that Anderson still didn't make the 25-man roster after playing his tail off might be a warning flag to potential suitors, but it's just a thought.

Three other attempts to get into Ozzie's head:

No. 1:  Anderson might be playing his best because he's desperate, and Ozzie doesn't want to take away any motivation in the final week of spring.

No. 2:  Anderson will be facing the highest level of pitching in the last few games, and Ozzie wants to make sure he doesn't turn into a pumpkin.

No. 3:  It's a tip of the hat to Quentin for recovering in impressive fashion from offseason shoulder surgery and a slow start to his spring.

More on MacDougal and the bullpen

Mike MacDougal is the 19th member of the White Sox to be previewed for the 2008 season, but why stop talking about him there?

I almost used the words "roller coaster" to describe MacDougal's 2008 season, but usually that implies some thrills to go with the chills.  This is about the only roller coaster that accurately replicates The Mike MacDougal Experience last year:



"We're doing all we can, but the casualties continue to mount.  We're losing people to heart failure, spinal injuries, even drowning.  It's been a real soul-shattering experience."

MacDougal actually played the role of hero in today's 8-8 tie against the Cubs, forcing the hot-hitting Micah Hoffpaiur and his .408 spring average to bounce into a double play with the potential game-winning run in scoring position in the ninth inning.

It marked the sixth straight scoreless outing for the spring, but on the other hand, it also marked the fourth straight outing in which MacDougal walked a batter.

It's hard to come to a conclusion about the walks right now, because the one he issued to Derrek Lee today likely was unintentionally intentional.  He got behind 3-1 on Lee with four straight breaking balls down and away before missing with a fastball for ball four, also low and away.  He followed up with a grounder on the first pitch that resulted in the 4-6-3 twin killing.

Still, he has five walks in 6 2/3 innings, though, and that's not going to cut it starting March 31 -- especially since he's going to be pitching the sixth inning and other low-leverage situations, when there are rarely any "good" walks.

The good news is that since his disastrous first two outings, he hasn't allowed a ball to leave the yard.  MacDougal's one saving grace right now is that he doesn't allow many homers, and he can't afford to lose that ability now.

*********************

Speaking of the bullpen, both Joe Cowley and Mark Gonzalez have given Ehren Wassermann a slight edge over Nick Masset for the last spot, based on this Ozzie Guillen quote:


One, that's a refreshingly honest appraisal of Masset's ability -- especially if I've figured out what Ozzie said in place of [messed].  Two, the numbers back up the assertion of all three:

• Wassermann:  10 IP, 5 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 6 K, .587 OPS allowed
• Masset: 16.1 IP, 23 H, 12 ER, 5 BB, 8 K, 868 OPS allowed

Guillen is expected to give Wassermann the task of working multiple innings in the final week of spring, in the event that the starting pitcher fails to make it through the fourth or fifth inning when the regular season starts. 

I still think Wassermann will have to pass this test with flying colors in order to get the nod, because I can't imagine Kenny Williams putting Masset on waivers until he absolutely has no choice.  Even if there's a good chance Masset would clear them.

*********************

While Ozzie manages pitchers better than hitters, this illustrates why I'm not seeing him start the season without a long reliever right now:


The Sox have had issues with the top of their order against left-handed pitching since the first half of 2006, and only now are they beginning to address it.  That's almost two full years after the problem reared its ugly head.

The same deference towards tradition that makes him an outstanding handler of pitchers hinders him when it comes to lineups and roster construction.  He likes his starters to get wins and rides the hot hand in the bullpen (except in 2007, when he only had one reliever).

But we're seeing the shortcomings with the lineup.  He flirted with the idea of batting Nick Swisher leadoff, but now he's hitting behind the Sox's biggest bats and slotting him higher in the order is now regarded as a radical idea.

And then there's the issue of Thome, who, barring some kind of incredible reversal, should probably be sitting against most southpaws.  No matter how you slice it, .196/.314/.350 is awful, and it's worse when 1) it's coming from the middle of the order, and 2) it's the continuation of trend.

It's only human nature to give preferential treatment to those who have paid their dues and produced in the past, but if Guillen and Williams are truly serious about how much 2007 embarrassed them, they'll need to handle the left-handed pitching situation far more aggressively.  That goes beyond dropping Thome down a couple slots, but giving Josh Fields Thome's at-bats (when he's on the team, that is) and using Juan Uribe and Pablo Ozuna, both better hitters against lefties than Thome, more creatively instead.

I'm sure it'll be a tough talk, but if Thome's as nice a guy as everybody says he is, this is one he should take for the team.  Whether or not Ozzie will have the talk that soon is another issue, because it seems as though he'd be more concerned about going against the book than upsetting Thome.

That's why I'm thinking Wassermann will have to pass his test in near-flawless fashion in order to wrestle the last bullpen spot away from Masset.  Conventional wisdom suggests a team with three question marks in the rotation needs a guy whose bread and butter is working multiple innings, and that's what Masset offers, though the bread is moldy and the butter is past its expiration date as well.

One player, many guesses, no friggin' clue

I previewed Alexei Ramirez, which really isn't as much of a preview as it is a place to put down my best guess at his final 2008 line, since we've only known him for a month.  I'm curious as to what you think he's going to do, because I'm 100 points of OPS under PECOTA, and there aren't any other projections readily available.

Here's another good example of how it's impossible to come to a consensus on this guy.  First, via SI.com's Jon Heyman:


And then via ESPN.com's Jayson Stark:


The thing is, they both could be right.

*************************

Here's a wonderful omen, if you're wondering whether the Sox will finally be able to hit left-handed pitching in 2008.  Look at Barry Zito's spring line entering today, then stack it against his performance against the Sox today:

• Before: 12.2 IP, 21 H, 24 R, 21 ER, 10 BB, 0 K
• Today:  5.2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 3 BB, 4 K

Ramirez, facing a curveball pitcher for once, struck out looking on one in his first at-bat.  He also flew out to left (broken bat) off Zito, and popped out foul down the right field line later in the game off Keiichi Yabu.  He did drive in Juan Uribe with a sac fly to provide a go-ahead run, although the Sox didn't hold the lead in the bottom half of the ninth.

Uribe is staying, by the way.  If nothing else, the waiver attempt provided Carl Skanberg some terrific fodder.

From the desk of Ozzie Guillen

If C.C. Sabathia does what he usually does to the Sox on Opening Day, Ozzie could be more than halfway there before April.

A week after wondering openly about his job status -- I liked Kenny Williams' response, or lack thereof -- Guillen is back to complaining about his team's lack of energy:


For a team that keeps insisting 2007 won't happen again, it's sure bringing back a lot of memories.  "Flip the switch" is a phrase that should be banned in the U.S. Cellular Field broadcast booth indefinitely.

***********************

But here's a good reason to be excited for March 31, and it's something Ozzie has never said before: Alexei Ramirez is on the 25-man roster:


The issue of how much playing time Ramirez will receive will likely be resolved as other questions are answered, namely:

No. 1:  Is Juan Uribe staying put?  ¡Profundo! was pulled off waivers after a team claimed him but couldn't agree to a trade with Kenny Williams... yet.  There's still time.

No. 2:  Who's starting -- Joe Crede or Josh Fields?  If Crede gets the call but doesn't start hitting, Uribe may take on more of a supersub role if he's still around, giving Ramirez more starts at second regardless.

No. 3:  Is Jerry Owens healthy?  Ramirez could see time in center if Owens' groin isn't 100 percent.  A cold April certainly isn't the best for iffy muscles.

One guy we know isn't healthy -- Danny Richar, who is out for four to six weeks with a stress fracture.

Uribe waived, and now we wait

I'm going to withold most judgment on the Juan Uribe situation until more details emerge, the primary one being whether the waivers are revocable.  In the meantime, the Cheat has an excellent second base primer to hold everybody over.

A couple more thoughts to add:

No. 1:  If they do pay his way out, it essentially makes Orlando Cabrera and Jon Garland's salaries equal. 

One of the big selling points on the Cabrera trade was that with the salary relief the Angels helped provide, it created enough room ($4.5 million) to pay for Scott Linebrink.  Coincidentally, $4.5 million is what Uribe is making this year.

That's a lot of money to pay a guy whose biggest selling points are consistent-but-not-spectacular defense and the ability to move runners over, and that's why I can't see a situation in which the Sox just dump him outright -- especially since he's not a lost cause or blocking a superstar.

No. 2:  They must be extremely confident in Alexei Ramirez.

Ramirez's defense could use some polish -- especially in center, where he missed the cutoff man a few times today and pulled up short of the wall on a deep fly ball.

But he continues to produce at the plate -- he went 2-for-3 with his first homer in a White Sox uniform, two walks and three runs scored.

Once again, he did all his damage on fastballs, although Ubaldo Jiminez has an excellent one.  Jiminez couldn't locate his breaking pitches today, and Ramirez kept fouling off fastballs in the 94-96 m.p.h range in his first at-bat, going from shanking them into the seats to the right to pulling one into the bleachers left.  Finally, he got one belt-high over the plate, and he sent it over the left-field wall.

His single was an opposite-field one on a first-pitch fastball, and he drew two walks in which he saw all fastballs, except for one slider.  So we still don't quite know what he can do against good curveballs or changes, because he hasn't seen many of them.

I'm no scout, though, so maybe my fears are overblown.  But without Uribe, Ramirez would be the guy at second base, and nobody else would be close.  Pablo Ozuna and his .400 lifetime average against C.C. Sabathia will probably get the Opening Day start, but it would be Alexei's job day in and day out for the rest of the way with nobody to challenge him.

If Crede can't start, maybe he can finish

Go figure: The Sox have one homegrown position player prospect with the potential of All-Star-caliber offense, and he'll start in Charlotte for a third straight season because he's buried behind a third baseman with a bad back.

That scenario isn't quite reality yet, but Josh Fields should prepare for it:


By no means is this the worst thing in the world.  The presence of Crede at third will make work easier for both Sox pitchers and Orlando Cabrera, and as long as he's got his throwing issues under control, his glove should make up for his bat...

...unless he's closer to the .088 hitter he was in the middle of Tuesday's game instead of the .230 hitter he was in 2004 and most of 2005.  As Brian Anderson proved, there's only so much a glove can do.

There's one way the Sox could work around it.  If Crede can't right himself offensively and the Sox have no takers for him, it might make more sense to use him as a defensive replacement.  Fields could start at third against righties and replace Jim Thome as DH versus lefties, with Crede getting regular time against lefties and late-inning appearances.

It wouldn't force Ozzie to expand his bench past four men, in theory.  Toby Hall and Pablo Ozuna are locks, and either Brian Anderson or Carlos Quentin would serve as the fourth outfielder.  Fields, potentially in place of Alexei Ramirez, might limit the versatility, but the Sox would still be deep enough at most positions:

• Shortstop: Orlando Cabrera, Juan Uribe, Ozuna
• Second base: Uribe, Ozuna
• Center field: Jerry Owens, Anderson, Nick Swisher
• First base: Paul Konerko, Swisher, Ozuna
• Third base: Fields, Crede, Uribe, Ozuna
  

This bench would maximize Ozuna's worth, too -- if they're going to hand a player of his limited ability a multi-year contract, they may as well get the most out of it.

It depends on what the Sox feel they have with Ramirez, who would make the Sox three deep at all those positions, regardless of Anderson:

• Shortstop: Cabrera, Uribe, Ramirez, Ozuna
• Second base: Uribe, Ozuna, Ramirez
• Center field: Owens, Anderson, Ramirez, Swisher
• Third base:  Crede, Uribe, Ozuna
  

Ozzie Guillen loves deploying his utility men (except for Rob Mackowiak, who he effectively disarmed), but in the American League, flexibility reaches a threshold where it becomes redundant after a certain point.  If they got away with starting Joe Crede at short and Chris Widger at third for a game in 2005, they could similarly stretch themselves again with ultimately no harm done.

Of course, the Sox could accommodate both Fields and Ramirez by only carrying 11 pitchers, but that's not going to happen anytime soon.

For now, I suppose all one can do is hope Crede hits enough in the majors, Fields keeps hitting in the minors, and the glove helps the Sox win enough games to make up for one year of Fields' service time.

Changing speeds, and not in the good way

Not that I didn't enjoy Jeff Passan's piece on Bobby Jenks in Yahoo!'s sports section today, but this section made me wonder:


If that were true, you'd think that he'd show it a little more once in a while.  As it is, Jenks sports the biggest velocity drop of any Sox pitcher over the last three seasons according to FanGraphs, which just released its velocity leaderboard.  Here's what the Sox staff looks like over the past three years:

Pitcher	2005	2006	2007	Change
Logan	n/a	89.8	92.8	+3.00
Dotel	92.1	92.7	93.5	+1.40
Thornton	93.3	96.0	94.3	+1.00
Floyd	91.1	90.8	91.4	+0.30
Vazquez	91.7	91.2	91.8	+0.10
Sisco	92.7	92.4	92.4	-0.30
Linebrink	93.0	92.4	92.3	-0.70
Buehrle	86.8	85.7	85.9	-0.90
Garland	91.1	89.8	89.3	-1.80
MacDougal	95.2	95.2	93.2	-2.00
Contreras	92.9	91.9	90.0	-2.80
Jenks	97	95.8	93.9	-3.10

A few things that jump out at me, Jenks' numbers aside:

No. 1:  Jose Contreras would probably be better served by cutting his drop-down attempts to once or twice a game.  Also worth noting -- his curve has decreased in velocity by 3 m.p.h. over the last three years, no doubt due to the development of the crazy-assed floater.

No. 2:  I wondered before about Thornton's drop in velocity, and now we have some numbers to go with it.  It surprised me that even with the fairly big loss in velocity (1.7 m.p.h.) between 2006 and 2007, he still threw harder than he did with the Mariners.  Of course, he was bad in 2005 and good in 2006, so simple deduction leads me to believe that he's more effective at the 96 range instead of the 94.  His elbow soreness at the start of the spring doesn't encourage me.

No. 3:  Booner!

No. 4:  Octavio Dotel's velocity numbers look like those of a guy who's recovering from Tommy John surgery.

I also threw Jon Garland up there, because he's somebody to watch closely over this next season.  I wonder how much of that decrease in velocity is due to the shoulder knot that he had trouble shaking for weeks at a time wonder how much of his decrease is due to the shoulder knot that he battled on and off in '06 and '07, and his velocity varied that wildly.

On one hand, this trend could mean the Sox dealt Garland at the right time.  Of course, if they do sign Orlando Cabrera to a long-term contract, it's going to pretty much negate any benefit the Sox gained from doing so.

Know thine enemy: 10 questions with a Royals blogger

Those who frequented this site last year may remember exchanging questions and answers with Twins blogger Stick and Ball Guy.  I liked the concept so much that I'm attempting to expand it to the rest of the AL Central.

We'll start this year's series with Max from the Kansas City Royals blog Royals Retrospective.  He's currently in the midst of ranking the 100 greatest Royals of all time, an excellent exercise in obscurity, and looks back at individual seasons and draft classes as well.

It's a lot of fun to read as a non-Royals fan, if only for the names (Rusty Meacham, Bruce Dal Canton and Pete LaCock, to name a few), and it's the type of site I'd do if I weren't doing this one.  Maybe some Sox fan will take up the cause.

He's posted my answers to his questions on his blog, and now we'll get to his answers to my questions:

No. 1:  Trey Hillman seems to have said more right things in the last four months than past Royals managers have said in the past 10 years.  How much optimism is he providing to fans?

Max:  Well it's a bit mixed. Initially a lot of casual fans wanted someone with a connection to the glory years - Frank White. Personally I love Frank, but that would have been a huge mistake. Trey seems to have won over the local media by showing an inclination for OBA, by putting an emphasis on fundamentals (which honestly, every manager in baseball does) and by saying he's not afraid to reject conventional wisdom and think outside the box. A lot of people also like he has a bit of a track record, albeit not in the major leagues. He took over a last place, small market ballclub that had trouble scoring runs (gee that sounds familiar) and turned them into a two-time pennant winner.

However, he'll have to produce with an improvement in the ballclub immediately, or fans will simply see this as simply rearranging chairs on the deck of the Titanic. It won't take much, simply a season in which the Royals are sniffing .500 ball, but he really doesn't really have the luxury of losing 95 games and saying "we're making progress."

No. 2:  I love watching Zack Greinke pitch – is this the year he finally gets over his mental hurdles and sticks in the rotation?

Max:  Wow, your guess is as good as mine. Talk about a wild card. He certainly gained confidence as a reliever last year, and he was pretty darn good as a starter too (3.80 ERA in fourteen starts). He's always going to be a flyball pitcher with a tendency to give up home runs, but if he can maintain his K-BB numbers, I think he has a great chance to be a solid #2/#3 type starter with a 4.00 - 4.20 ERA.

He's still a young kid (23), but he's been through a lot already. I saw an interview with him the other day, and for the first time in his career I thought he looked and sounded like a man. Not a boy, but a man. I have no idea if that means anything.

No. 3:  After Greinke, Gil Meche and Brian Bannister, how will the back of the rotation pan out (and would you like it to shape up differently?)?

Well they seem committed to Tomko as the fourth starter for reasons that escape me, and I think the fifth starters role will come down to John Bale and Jorge de la Rosa. de la Rosa is out of options, but he'll be 27 in a few weeks, has a 5.85 ERA in 274 major league innings and has pretty much proven he's only dependable for a few starts at a time before imploding. He actually could be pretty serviceable as a lefty reliever, but with Jimmy Gobble, Ron Mahay, and minor leaguer Neal Musser, the Royals are well stocked in that department. He could be dealt or waived.

I really like John Bale, although I've only seen about half a season of him. I think he could be a decent 4.50 - 4.80 ERA guy with good strikeout numbers, not a bad guy for the back of the rotation.

Tomko has a hot wife, which is about the most I can say for him. He was just awful last year in a couple of pitchers parks in the NL and should really have to prove 2007 was a fluke before being handed a rotation job. My guess is he's in the pen by Memorial Day, and possibly even released by the All-Star break.

Later in the year I think you can expect Kyle Davies, Leo Nunez and Luke Hochevar making starts for the Royals. Carlos Rosa is a guy that has risen through the system quickly and could see a few starts. And they've also talked about Joakim Soria being a starter long-term, so you could see him make some spot starts late in the year.

Hochevar has actually really impressed a lot of coaches this spring. His numbers in the minors have been less than impressive, especially considering he was the #1 overall pick in the draft. However, his apologists will tell you his peripherals were great, and that his pitch selection was limited because the Royals wanted him to work on certain pitches.

I would guess that [Royals GM] Dayton [Moore] is sensitive to service time issues, so you may not see Luke come up until June or so. That's at least how I'd handle it anyway. May as well let the kid have some minor league success, work on his craft and delay his service clock all at the same time.

No. 4. The White Sox were reportedly in the hunt for Yasuhiko Yabuta, but the Royals snagged him.  How’s he looking so far?

I haven't heard much about Yabuta which is probably a good sign, because middle relievers only garner headlines when they mess up. Its hard to say how Yabuta will perform. The performance of Japanese relievers in the States has really been all over the map. I'm guardedly optimistic that under the tutelage of Hillman, Yabuta can have a solid first season. That is, until American hitters figure him out.

No. 5:  The Jose Guillen signing struck me as unnecessary for the Royals.  Am I wrong?

Well, it was necessary in that they needed to improve the offense, but I would tend to agree that paying $36 million for a 32 year old corner outfielder known as a malcontent who hit just .216/.276/.398 a year ago may have been a waste of resources. But the guy has posted an OPS+ of 115 in four of the last five seasons. The options on the market weren't that great, and the Royals will have to overpay to bring players to a franchise with their history of losing. Even if Guillen is a huge bust, $13 million a season at this point won't actually break the bank with the Royals. They are swimming in more revenue than ever before, and most of their young players won't be making good money until Jose Guillen is long gone.

No. 6:  Who will have the bigger year at the plate – Alex Gordon or Billy Butler?

Gordon because he's older and has a full season under his belt. I fully expect him to have a break out season - .280/.350/.470 25 home runs or so. Butler had a good start in his half-season in Kansas City, but the power isn't quite there yet. I suspect he'll have some sophomore struggles as pitchers develop a book on him, and he may press to hit more power. They're still trying to make him work at first base, and his struggles defensively may carry over to his bat. Also, no one has really talks about it much, but this is a kid who isn't exactly in great shape. It probably won't be an issue until he's closer to 30, but the injury bug worries me when I see that barrel-shaped trunk of his.

No. 7:  How are things going to sh