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The Podsednik Paradox: Part III: 2007

Scott Podsednik's winning percentage in 2007 isn't nearly as gaudy as it was in the previous two seasons, but the fact that the Sox stayed above .500 with Podsednik in the lineup during a miserable year is a phenomenon in and of itself -- especially since Podsednik was, by and large, quite bad when he did play.

Let's see if we can find some answers.

Replacements:  Podsednik missed huge chunks of the season in 2007, so much so that it would take too much time to try to itemize his replacements.  Instead, we'll just break it down via the left fielders' stats as a whole during the periods Podsednik was broken down.

	AB	H	XBH	RBI	BA	OBP	SLG	W-L
Apr. 18 - June 22	196	45	12	25	.230	.324	.342	24-35
July 2- July 24	79	24	6	11	.304	.371	.405	8-12
Aug. 22 - Sept. 1	41	10	2	6	.244	.267	.341	1-10
Other dates	67	20	12	14	..299	.382	.627	8-8
Total	373	98	32	56	.263	.344	.413	41-65
Podsednik	214	52	19	11	.243	.299	.369	31-25

Once again, there's a significant divide in team performance despite the fact that the replacement left fielders outperformed Podsednik in just about every facet of the game.  The "other dates" record was boosted by Josh Fields' .333/.416/.714 line in Podsednik's place after September 1, during which the Sox went 7-5.

Pitching:  As was the case in 2006, the Sox fared better with Podsednik in the lineup against lefties:

• Sox against lefties, w/o Pods: 9-20
  
• Sox against lefties, w/ Pods: 7-8

However, unlike 2006, there's a reason: Pods was actually pretty good against southpaws, as he experienced a reverse split in 2007:

• Pods against LHP: .279/.380/.393
• Pods against RHP: .229/.263/.359

His chief replacement, Rob Mackowiak, couldn't hit lefties.  With no complement to lefties Jerry Owens and Darin Erstad, the outfield as a whole was exposed with a lefty on the mound.

Pods also happened to miss most of the worst days for his pitchers.  The Sox staff allowed 10 runs or more in 20 games -- and Pods didn't start in 16 of them.  He missed the entire Boston Massacre and the doubleheader from hell against Minnesota, for example.  On the other hand, he didn't start the two games the Sox allowed 10 runs and won, but 2-14 still helps create a stark difference.

Streaks? Slumps? Injuries?  The only month without any perceptible difference in performance was September.  Incidentally, that was the same month Fields and Jim Thome pounded the ever-loving crap out of the ball, and Owens did a nice job getting on base at the top of the order.

Month	w/ Pods	w/o Pods
April	5-3	7-8
May	0-0	12-14
June	6-3	4-15
July	6-3	8-12
August	7-9	2-11
Sept.	8-7	7-5

The other month with a slight disparity -- April, AKA the only month the Sox had a bullpen.  Pods actually boasted a .378 before landing on the DL midway through the month, and with pitchers on both sides dominating, one guy getting on base can be worth a win here and there.  That seemed to be the story of 2005.

The Sox handled three teams with relative ease in 2007: the Tigers, Royals and Devil Rays.  Incidentally, those teams were the opposition in 24 of Podsednik's 56 starts.

On the other hand, Pods missed all the games against Boston, against whom the White Sox lost seven of eight games.  He missed all but two interleague games, as the Sox struggled mightly without a designated hitter en route to a 4-14 record against National League teams.

So what do we know?  Podsednik's importance in 2007 falls in between his impact in the two previous seasons.  In 2005, when he and his above-average OBP weren't around, the Sox didn't have anybody to pick up the slack.  In 2006, he managed to miss the right games -- there was little rhyme or reason to it, even when factoring in the Sox's struggles against left-handed pitching.

In 2007, Pods did make a difference against lefties, as well in the first half-month of the season, when he was only one of a couple Sox capable of hitting in the cold.

Still, amazing timing came into play.  How else can anybody explain Pods missing 80 percent of the Sox's worst pitching performances?  Or that he nearly played as many games against the Devil Rays (four of seven) as he did versus the other AL East teams the Sox struggled against (five of 33)?

Pods also had the benefit of a small sample size, playing in less than half the games of a doomed season.  In the end, Pods was likely more lucky than good, but at the same time, his absence repeatedly underscored the OBP issues the Sox had without him.

To me, one of the low points of the 2007 season was when Kenny Williams urged his team to be more like Thome in its plate approach.  The message was sound in theory, but reeked of smashing a square peg into a round hole.  Podsednik definitely had a purpose on the team, but he couldn't stay healthy enough to fulfill it.

The Podsednik Paradox: Part II: 2006

On the surface, there's an incredibly easy explanation as to why the Sox struggled so much with Scott Podsednik out of the lineup during the 2006 season: left-handed pitchers.

Of the 41 games Scott Podsednik didn't start, 39 of them were against southpaw starters, including the first 37.  Pods didn't miss a game with a righty on the mound until Seattle's Felix Hernandez started against the Sox September 23.  Pods also missed the last game of the season against Minnesota's Carlos Silva.

The White Sox finished the year 59-38 against righties, and 31-34 against lefties.  That alone creates a gigantic gap.

However, this answer raises an even tougher question -- how on Earth do you explain this difference in records:

• Sox against lefties w/o Pods: 14-25
• Sox against lefties w/ Pods: 17-9

The answer isn't in the first place we looked last time:

Replacements:  In 2005, no matter who Ozzie Guillen replaced Pods with, he couldn't get even a replacement-level performance in his place.  That's not the case in 2006, due in large part to Pablo Ozuna's first half.  Here's the breakdown, and their total is stacked against Pods' stats in the 26 games he started against lefties:

Player	AB	R	H	XBH	RBI	BA	OBP	SLG
Ozuna	138	15	58	14	13	.340	.381	.464
Mackowiak	20	1	8	0	0	.400	.429	.400
Gload	8	1	1	0	0	.125	.125	.125
Sweeney	4	0	2	0	0	.500	.500	.500
Total	170	17	58	15	13	.341	.377	.441
Podsednik	107	19	25	5	14	.234	.300	.308

In place of Podsednik, Ozuna, Rob Mackowiak, Ross Gload and Ryan Sweeney combined to put up what basically equates to Ichiro Suzuki's career line (.333/.379/.437).

Yet, despite reaching base nearly half as much (36 times, to 68 for the above foursome) and collecting less than half the hits, Pods beats them in both runs and RBI.  I may have an answer for this, if you read on.

Pitching, for and against:  Unlike 2005, when the pitching lines were roughly the same whether or not Podsednik started, there is a sizable difference in the 2006 numbers:

• Sox starters, with Pods: 779 IP, 4.47 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 5.18 K/9
• Sox starters, w/o Pods: 263 IP, 5.16 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 6.02 K/9

The numbers aren't easy to reconcile, aside from the strikeout rates.  Javier Vazquez started four games that Pods didn't in September, over which he struck out 45 over 29 1/3 innings.  Otherwise, while Mark Buehrle was the worst pitcher in the second half and Jose Contreras wasn't great, either, Sox starters actually performed far worse in the first half during the games Podsednik didn't start:

• First half: 97 IP, 6.22 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, 4.82 K/9
• Second half: 166 IP, 4.55 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 6.72 K/9

However, the Sox went 6-9 without Pods in the first half, and 9-17 in the second.  That said, I think we're getting closer to the most significant reason.

Johan Santana, once again, is part of the equation, too, except he has company this time.  The Twins ace was one of three AL Central lefties who absolutely tormented the Sox in 2006 -- Cleveland's C.C. Sabathia and Detroit's Kenny Rogers were the others.

The Sox went 4-12 in games started by that trio -- 3-1 in games Pods started, and 1-11 in the others.

What's especially funny is that in those four games, Pods was 1-for-15 with two walks.

Streaks? Slumps? Injuries?  Guillen deployed a straight platoon in left field for nearly the entire second half.  Of the 26 games he started against left-handed pitchers, 21 came before the All-Star break, mainly because Pods couldn't do anything with the bat after it.

The problem was that everybody else's numbers slipped, too -- especially against left-handed pitching.  Here's how the splits break down:

Player	First half vs. LHP	Second half vs. LHP
Podsednik	.253/.316/.345	.150/.227/.150
Replacements	.429/.463/.524	.290/.327/.393
Thome	.257/.382/.394	.207/.316/.317
Konerko	.379/.463/.709	.250/.310/.457
Dye	.393/.486/.750	.284/.370/.545
Pierzynski	.299/.349/.377	.234/.246/.250
Crede	.314/.355/.529	.222/.323/.481

Pods actually had far more plate appearances against lefties than all the bench players combined in the first half (98 to 68), and that edge probably explains the edge he had in runs and RBI as mentioned earlier.

After faring an acceptable 20-16 against left-handed pitching in the first half, the Sox sank to 11-18 in the second.  Pods just happened to not be around for most of that.

The first half pitching line when Pods didn't play as mentioned above, however, doesn't correlate with the overall numbers in any way I can find.  Unless the guys on the mound felt extra confident with Pods patrolling left, those numbers appear to be merely random fluctuations.

So what do we know?  In 2005, Pods was one of only two players with an above-average OBP.  As a result, it's easy to see how his presence could help the Sox win many a tight game.

No such luck in 2006 -- best I can tell, Pods' most distinguishable feature was his left-handedness.

That's not to say that he didn't make a difference with right-handers on the mound.  He had a .386 OBP against righties in the first half, as opposed to .300 in the second, and that drop-off was a big reason in the team's declining performance against righties as well.  That certainly could back up the claim that as Podsednik went, so went the White Sox.

At the same time, Rob Mackowiak sported a .384 OBP against righties all year long.  Had Brian Anderson made a better first impression, or had Ozzie viewed Ross Gload as a viable alternative in left, Pods might've been a benchwarmer when he stopped being an effective leadoff man.

When you factor in his stats with his subpar defense and struggles on the basepaths, it's a gigantic leap to say the team was a mess whenever Pods wasn't in the lineup. It's probably safe to say that Ozzie deserves more credit for Pods' record than Pods does, because he happened to pick the right days for Podsednik to sit.

The Podsednik Paradox: Part I: 2005

Of the three years Scott Podsednik played in Chicago, it's easiest to understand his impact during the Sox's championship season.

When the Sox burst out of the gate like Secretariat, Podsednik was one big reason.  He didn't deserve to make the All-Star team, but he did prove to be a more-than-capable leadoff man in the first half of the season, with a .369 on-base percentage and 44 stolen bases in 53 attempts.  The Sox finished the first half with a 57-29 record and a nine-game lead.

Likewise, when Podsednik began to slow down, the Sox did as well.  He missed a chunk of time in August, the Sox's roughest month of the year, and began to find his stride as the Sox were discovering theirs.  On the surface, Podsednik's season mirrors the team's quite well.

Replacements:  In short, the Sox didn't have one for Podsednik.  The play of the Sox's fourth outfielders -- none of whom were good enough to really be called a "fourth outfielder" -- were so awful that it inspired the beginning of the trade rumor that wouldn't soon die: Ken Griffey Jr. to the White Sox.

(It also marked the beginning of the infamous inside joke for White Sox fans on the Web: "Where Would He Play?")

The Craptacular Cavalcade of Outmakers, composed largely of Carl Everett, Pablo Ozuna and Timo Perez, tried to fill the hole in left field, and each failed to varying degrees.  Here's the rundown of everybody who took an at-bat for Podsednik in all the games he didn't start in 2005:

Player	AB	R	H	XBH	RBI	BA	OBP	SLG
Perez	57	6	12	3	5	.211	.258	.263
Everett	43	6	10	2	9	.233	.292	.372
Ozuna	29	7	7	0	0	.241	.333	.241
Anderson	9	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000
Gload	3	0	1	0	0	.333	.500	.333
Dye	3	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000
Rowand	2	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000
Total	146	19	30	5	14	.205	.272	.267

The seven-headed monster of Podsednik replacements posted an OPS of .539.  Treat them as a single entity, and they would have the worst OPS of any player to rack up at least 165 plate appearances in 2005.

(The next-lowest? Tony Womack at .556.  His failures with the Yankees were well-publicized, to put it lightly.)

Pitching, for and against:  Of the Sox's 99 wins, 76 of them came against right-handed pitching; they finished a mere 23-20 against left-handed pitching.  When Pods needed an off day during the times he was healthy, Ozzie Guillen normally gave it to him when the Sox faced a southpaw.

In particular, there was one lefty who the Sox had an enormous amount of trouble with -- Johan Santana.  You may have heard of him.  The Sox lost all five games in which they faced Santana, who went 4-0 with a 0.92 ERA and 0.76 WHIP in 39 1/3 innings against the Pale Hose that year.

Do you know who didn't start when Santana did?  You guessed it -- one Scott Podsednik.  There's five losses of that 19-19 record right there.  The Sox went 9-7 against non-Santana lefties when Podsednik was out, and 10-7 against righties.

Meanwhile, one thought I had before looking at the game logs was that Podsednik missed more time in the second half, when every Sox starter besides Jose Contreras regressed toward the mean.  The difference seems ultra-slim, though:

• Sox starters, with Pods: 813 1/3 IP, 3.71 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 5.68 K/9
• Sox starters, w/o Pods: 260 2/3 IP, 3.87 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 6.11 K/9

I didn't bother crunching numbers for relievers, because I can't draw meaning from one single inning of work versus another six weeks later.

Streaks? Slumps? Injuries?  Podsednik began his only trip to the disabled list during the 2005 season on Aug. 13.  The White Sox lost the next six games.

August happened to be the only month the Sox suffered a losing record, and while they rebounded well enough, such an impressive and well-timed dive is going to make a big impression.

Month	w/ Pods	w/o Pods
April	13-3	4-3
May	16-10	2-0
June	15-5	3-2
July	13-9	2-2
August	6-7	6-9
Sept./Oct.	17-9	2-3

It's hard to say how much of an impact he would've had, though, because even when he was cleared to play, he played a significant role in the team's worst month of the year.  His August on-base percentage was a pathetic .237 -- more than 100 points worse than any of his other monthly OBPs.

His replacements crapped the bed even more -- in August, they combined for a .160/.230/.214 line.  And A.J. Pierzynski and Jermaine Dye also suffered down months.  August was Juan Uribe's worst, too.

We haven't even mentioned August's biggest culprit -- Joe Crede, who managed a .103/.148/.172 line in 61 plate appearances before a fastball mercifully broke his finger and gave him time off that he desperately needed.  His chief replacement, Geoff Blum, didn't prove much relief (.540 OPS).

When three of the four guys preceding the heart of the order are wholly ineffective, the offense is going to sputter.  Fortunately for Pods' reputation, he missed more than half of the month.  And when Crede, Uribe and Dye rebounded to each have a big September, Pods did, too.

He didn't save his timing for the second half, though. Frank Thomas managed to last 43 games on the 25-man roster, and his presence brought order to the lineup.  Aaron Rowand and Carl Everett didn't have to try to bat third, and, as a result, they ended up scoring one more run per game.  Podsednik never missed more than one game at a time during this stretch.

So what do we know?  You could truly describe Podsednik as "indispensable," but not because of his own talent as much as the doings of Kenny Williams and Ozzie Guillen behind him.  Not only did the Sox lack a backup that could be described "at least replacement-level," but because Guillen has the tendency to bat weak, fast guys first, the horrible backup plan often soaked up the most plate appearances in a game.

Still, though I made it sound like Pods picked his times to duck out, he gave the Sox a boost in an area they have chronically lacked since the Big Hurt became labeled "injury-prone" -- on-base percentage.  Even with his lousy August, he finished with a .351 OBP, good for second-best on the team.  With the Sox playing as many one-run games as they did in 2005, every baserunner counted, and Pods did his job in that department.

It's a lot like the drop-off the Sox suffered in 2006 when A.J. Pierzynski didn't start (74-52 with, 16-20 without) due to a lack of a replacement, except Pierzynski's replacements weren't expected to set the table.

All in all, it's pretty easy to explain the difference Scott Podsednik made in 2005, at least whatever can't be chalked up to timing and strategy.  It's going to be far more difficult to figure out why the Sox similarly struggled without Podsednik in 2006, even though Pods was a shadow of himself compared to the previous year.

I'm beginning to collect data for the second part, so if you have any particular questions or suggestions, please feel free to share.

The Podsednik Paradox: Introduction

As I started to write a eulogy for the recently departed Scott Podsednik, I matter-of-factly included a reference to the disparities in the White Sox's records when Podsednik started, and when he didn't:

• 2005
• With Pods: 80-44
• Without Pods: 19-19
• 2006
• With Pods: 75-46
• Without Pods: 15-26
• 2007
• With Pods: 31-25
• Without Pods: 41-65
• Total
• With Pods: 186-115 (.618)
• Without Pods: 75-110 (.405)

It's quite a bizarre phenomenon.  Podsednik posted a line of .270/.333/.354 in his White Sox career, during which he was rarely 100 percent, played horsesh-it defense at times (his word, not mine), and proved that speed does indeed slump -- and yet the results indicate that the team was far more of a mess without him.

So rather than refer to it as some sort of solid gauge of his worth, I figured I'd try my best to look into it and see what were the real causes for the vast difference in the Sox's performances.

(Disclaimer: I'm not a scientist, and, like everything else on this site, it's done in my spare time, so this is going to be seat-of-the-pants research.  Feel free to point out flaws or any ways I could possibly improve it as it goes on.)

I'll focus mainly on three areas:

No. 1: The replacements.  The various dreck that took Podsednik's place during his slumps and injuries.

No. 2: Opposing pitchers.  The Sox have struggled against left-handers for some time now, and with Pods being a lefty, he may have been out for a considerable amount of those losses.

No. 3: Concurrent streaks, slumps and injuries.  To see how well Pods timed his time off.

I'm not sure if anything will come of it, but considering we're smack in the middle of the offseason, it will at least give us something to talk about.