Acknowledging the White Sox 2018 spring training stat leaders

Not much can be drawn from spring training stats, but if they take the time to track them — and if season-opening jobs are even loosely based on them — we may as well take a look at them. This is how their seasons’ stories start, if nothing else. Now we’ll discover which ones have unreliable narrators.

  • Plate appearances: Matt Davidson, 73

Davidson had the biggest sample size of them all, followed by three other starting infielders. He deserved the work, hitting  .328/.411/.594 with impressive showings in other categories. We’re going to be talking a lot about him.

  • Hits: Matt Davidson, 21.

See?

  • Batting average: Adam Engel, .383
  • On-base percentage: Adam Engel, .453
  • Slugging percentage: Adam Engel, .702

If we could apply “revelation” to anybody in spring training — and that’s too strong a word for performances that have shown themselves to be fleeting — Engel would be the guy. He successfully warded off a strong performance by Ryan Cordell to stake his claim to the center field job, and unlike Jacob May last year, his strike-zone peripherals aren’t about to blow up on him.

Engel struck out just 10 times over 53 plate appearances. That’s roughly half of his 2017 strikeout rate, so he’s got a lot of room to regress and still offer more at the plate. The projection systems give a hint at the amount of hits he stands to gain by putting the bat on the ball a little more. Using ZiPS as the low system and Steamer as the high guy:

Season BA K% BABIP
 2017 actual  .166  34.8  .247
 2018 ZiPS  .194  33.4  .282
 2018 Steamer .208  30.4  .285

Assuming Engel has normalish luck at the plate on his batted balls, he might be able to hike his average 50 points by shaving 7-8 percent off his strikeout rate. He gave himself 16 points to play with his spring improvement.

  • Home runs: Matt Davidson and Adam Engel, 4

You’re starting to get the idea here. Yoan Moncada was third with three, and Matt Skole would have tied him if it were not for his 433-foot single.

  • RBIs: Matt Davidson, 19.

Davidson led the entire Cactus League in this category, and only Houston’s Kyle Tucker had more (21).

  • Walks: Matt Davidson and Jose Abreu, 9.

Abreu drew as many walks in 2018 as he did in his previous two springs combined. With just five strikeouts, you could say he was seeing the ball pretty well.

  • Strikeouts: Matt Davidson and Yoan Moncada, 19.

Moncada’s strikeouts were bunched up toward the start of the spring. He struck out in 27 percent of his March plate appearances, and that looks like a goal for the regular season.

Davidson is in the same boat. He struck out in just 26 percent of his plate appearances, down from a 37-38 percent range in 2017, whether you look at Cactus League or regular season play. Unlike Moncada, Davidson doesn’t offer above-average defense of speed, so this one needs to hold.

  • Stolen bases: Jacob May, 6.

May stole twice as many bases as the runner-up Moncada, and wasn’t thrown out once. All of these happened in the first fortnight of the preseason, as he didn’t get on base much afterward (2-for-15, seven strikeouts). He may as well run wild and free, because he might otherwise find it difficult to distinguish himself as more useful than Engel, Ryan Cordell or Leury Garcia.

  • Games: Aaron Bummer and Xavier Cedeno, 10

And a third lefty, Brian Clark, was third on this list with nine appearances. Bummer ended up winning the last bullpen spot with a strong performance both in terms of effectiveness (nine hits, two walks over 10 innings) and assertiveness (two walks, 13 strikeouts).

  • Innings: Reynaldo Lopez, 18.2 innings

Lopez led this category for the second straight spring officially, but one of Lucas Giolito’s starts happened on a back field. Giolito threw just one fewer inning despite Lopez’s one-start edge.

  • ERA: Chris Volstad, 0.00

Credit Volstad with the staff’s most impressive spring line: 14 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 9 K over eight games. He’s thrown 294 innings for Charlotte over the past two seasons, and he could make a run at 400 this year. The goal is a second straight cup of coffee.

  • Strikeouts: Hector Santiago, 18

Santiago’s usage — 16 innings over six games — may be the idea going forward. He pitched his usual brand of baseball, issuing a few too many walks (seven), but countering it by being hard to hit (.200 BAA, 18 strikeouts).

  • Walks: Carson Fulmer, 13

Fulmer, who finished the spring with an 11.81 ERA, wouldn’t have beat out Santiago if the fifth-starter job were a pure meritocracy, but Rick Renteria likes the idea of Santiago countering the lefty-heavy lineups an all-righty rotation might see.

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PauliePaulie

Injuries and some questionable Renteria made this Spring less enjoyable than most. But I’m incredibly excited for the season, both Majors and Minors, to start. Go Player Development!

DuhSox

Injuries certainly put a damper on the expected progress of the injured players, however a 15 – 12 record, the numbers put up by Engle, Davidson, Avi, several encouraging pitching performances, I felt made this spring more enjoyable than some recent ones.

gibby32

You have more questionable comments than Ricky has questionable moves.

PauliePaulie

Anything specific you don’t agree with, or just a general wish that I’d make my comments more tow-the-line sunshine and candy canes?

gibby32

Generally speaking, the kind of arrogance reflected in this comment.

PauliePaulie

I understand that some of my opinions may read as arrogant. Not meant to offend. Just unhappy about the way this offseason played out. FYI- downvote not from me. Skin is thicker than that.

Lurker Laura

Jacob May’s going to get packaged in a trade this year, right?

jorgefabregas

It’s unlikely that he has any trade value. He was outrighted in January and no teams claimed him.

Lurker Laura

Oh, yeah, forgot about that. Maybe my question should be, “The Sox are hoping Jacob May kills it in AAA so that they can throw him in as a PTBNL, right?”

Trooper Galactus

I doubt anybody will soon forget his 0-for-20something start to 2017.

steely3000

The only thing he’d be good for in the majors is as a pinch-runner. I was really disappointed in his 2017 with the Sox.

Trooper Galactus

I didn’t expect a lot from May, but I certainly expected more than we got.

Anohito

Free MLB.tv/AB Prem for T-mobile customers today!!

Interesting look back at the spring these guys had. Really hope it transfers to the season esp. Engel and MattyD. Can’t wait.

PopeDonnPall

Future Sox been posting nuggets from Getz today. Apparently Birmingham Rotation is Stephens, Puckett, Adams, Clarkin, Guerrero. Bit surprised Stephens/Adams aren’t in Charlotte.

Hansen is delayed starting the year, so maybe he forces the best of the bunch up a level when he gets there. Dunning starts in W-S. Robert expected in W-S. Rutherford also to start the year in W-S. Savala in Birmingham with Collins should be fun to watch.

zerobs

Charlotte is what: Kopech, Volstad, Danish, Covey, TBD?

Trooper Galactus

I was wondering the same thing. Maybe Holmberg?

EDIT: Nope, Holmberg’s on the Orioles now, so it’s REALLY up in the air. Are Jake Dunning or Matt Cooper still around?

PopeDonnPall

Cooper retired as I recall. Time to try Courtney Hawkins out as a pitcher.

Trooper Galactus

Ah yes, I forgot about his abrupt departure from baseball. Shame they aren’t giving Adams a shot at AAA; guy was awesome up to his last two or three starts in 2017 and pitched a lot of innings. He seems like he’s ready for the next step.

PauliePaulie

I don’t understand Robert starting in W-S. He’s been on the DL more than he’s played. A quick promotion if he raked at Kann. was the way to go, IMO.

jorgefabregas

He already raked in his last Serie Nacional season, which is a similar level to Kanny.

PopeDonnPall

Yeah I thought Robert would start in Kanny but I’m encouraged by them saying Winston.

The Charlotte rotation,sans Kopech is gonna be bor-ring.

PauliePaulie

He didn’t rake in international tournaments and has had fewer than 130 PA’s in organized ball over the last 18 months.

zerobs

They spent a lot of money on Robert and they would like to see him up sometime in 2020. He has shown enough plate discipline they can challenge him. He’s probably seen enough High A/AA pitching in the spring that they think he’s ready for high A. If he can handle it, 2020 is a realistic target.

PauliePaulie

I’d hope they’ve learned from past mistakes, and aren’t placing Major League timelines on players like Robert. And he only had 12 PA’s this spring.

PauliePaulie

I understand the Manager factor(if he’s matured from the guy he was during his playing days) as well as W-S being a hitters park. But any time the Sox don’t err on the side of caution with prospect assignments I get nervous. Their track record sucks and this system doesn’t have the depth to overcome unnecessary blunders.

jorgefabregas

He had 12 PAs with the big club, right? Presumably he had more on the back fields and will have more in Extended as he recovers.

lil jimmy

Nice rotation.

PauliePaulie

I was also not aware that Robert had thumb surgery.

Eagle Bones

What the hell? At least two of those starters should be in chalotte.

oljeto

What happened to Cease?
Saw some ST games and he looks like he has the most upside of them all.

Eagle Bones

I thought of another upside comp for Engel that I like better than Billy hamilton (that was too aggressive): Peter bourjos