jlazowski14’s Offseason Plan

PREAMBLE

We, the people of White Sox Nation, in order to form a happier fanbase, establish baseball dominance, insure “sustained success”, provide for the everyday fan, and secure a World Series Championship for our city and nation, do ordain and establish our offseason plans for the Chicago White Sox from the comfort of our own homes.

The time to begin to see growth and progress towards the eventual goal of a World Series Championship begins this offseason. I have laid out a plan for the 2018-2019 offseason that involves a mix of short-term veteran signings and trades/large free agent signings, keeping in mind that this rebuild requires the team to keep and grow many of their prospects. I have left Manny Machado off the table as well.

I hope you enjoy reading this as much as I enjoyed writing it.

ARBITRATION-ELIGIBLE PLAYERS

  • Jose Abreu, $16M: Tender

He is still the most valuable player on this team, and could arguably be making more money elsewhere. With no one knocking down the door to challenge Abreu for 1B, he looks to be a lock here for the year.

  • Avisail Garcia, $8M: Tender

Avi has value, even if he isn’t part of my long-term plans. Tendering him a contract shows teams he still has value to the White Sox, which could be used to bait teams into trading for Avi.

  • Yolmer Sanchez, $4.7M: Tender

Another valuable filler who’s put up decent numbers the past two years. A lot of teams would like to have a utility man like Yolmer.

  • Carlos Rodon, $3.7M: Tender

Still has Ace potential. This price would definitely be a steal of a season if Rodon finally turns the corner.

  • Matt Davidson, $2.4M: Tender

Davidson and Abreu formed a pretty nice combo at 1B last year. With a mustache game unmatched, hopefully Davidson can continue to improve on the progress he made at the plate last season.

  • Leury Garcia, $1.9M: Tender

Solid utility guy. While he has struggled to stay healthy, he has been productive while on the field. I wouldn’t mind if he won the starting CF job during Spring Training, but that’s not in my plan.

  • Danny Farquhar, $1.4M: Non-Tender

This decision has already been made, and I agree with it. Farquhar is a great story, and I’d be happy to see him back in the big leagues.

CLUB OPTIONS

  • Nate Jones, $4.65 million/$1.25M buyout: Pick Up
  • James Shields, $16 million/$2M buyout: Decline

These were both decided before I could submit this article to SoxMachine, but they are the decisions I would’ve reached as well. Essentially paying Nate Jones $3.4M ($4.65-$1.25) is pretty cheap when considering the upside he has. And, as much as I love a veteran presence, no veteran presence is worth $16M.Â

OTHER IMPENDING FREE AGENTS

  • Miguel Gonzalez (made $4.75 million in 2018): Bye

Would’ve been nice to see if the Sox could’ve traded him at two consecutive trade deadlines. Oh well.

  • Hector Santiago (made $2 million in 2018 — added): Thanks for eating innings, but see ya

Ate innings, made spot starts… The Sox have guys who can do that for less than $2M already on the team.

FREE AGENTS

Michael Brantley (3 years/$51 million). The Nicky Delmonico experiment in LF is likely over. Jimenez will be up by April 15th, meaning this move would solidify the corner OF spots for the next several years. Brantley is coming off an injury-shortened season, but still put up some of the best numbers in the Indians’ outfield. It might be difficult to pry him away from a sure contender at the age of 32, but I think it’s worth a shot.

Hyun-Jin Ryu (3 years/$36 million). The odds that the White Sox sign Patrick Corbin and Nathan Eovaldi are slim to none, especially since Eovaldi just won a World Series and Corbin will be in incredibly high demand. Ryu is coming off an injury-riddled stint with the Dodgers, but held a 1.97 ERA in 15 regular season starts in 2018. He’s worth the risk if the White Sox are looking for a potential front-of-the-rotation pitcher that they can realistically beat out the competition for.

Edwin Jackson (1 year/$3.5 million). It’s likely that the White Sox won’t be signing two top-of-the-rotation arms, and while I’d love to see James Shields back on the South Side, my guess is that he will do whatever it takes to sign a deal for a fringe contender to at least have the hope of reaching the playoffs once more. Jackson put up solid numbers for a #5 starter for Oakland this summer, throwing 92.0 innings in 17 starts with a 3.33 ERA and 125 ERA+. At 35, he figures for some regression, but man has this guy been around awhile. He matches Shields in his consistency, and it’s likely that someone would force the issue and overtake Jackson by mid-season – this spot in the rotation isn’t too important.

TRADES

White Sox Trade OF Avisail Garcia, RHP Lincoln Henzman, OF Blake Rutherford, and OF Luis Gonzalez to the Cardinals in exchange for OF Dexter Fowler.

This one makes sense for the White Sox, as it frees up RF for Eloy Jimenez while filling the team’s desperate need for a CF. The White Sox have the space to take on Fowler’s contract with the hopes that he can turn things around after last season. It’s a risk, considering he still has two more years on his deal after 2019. However, this 2019 payroll still maxes out at $110M (spoiler alert), meaning the White Sox could realistically still handle this bad contract. The risk is there, but so is the potential reward. Between Harrison Bader, Tyler O’Neill, and Marcell Ozuna, adding Avi Garcia as an off the bench impact bat would be a plus for the Cardinals.

White Sox Trade C Welington Castillo, OF Micker Adolfo, LHP Kodi Medieros and IF Laz Rivera to the Marlins in exchange for C J.T. Realmuto and IF Starlin Castro.

This trade may seem weak to the Marlins if they value Starlin Castro highly. I am operating under the assumption that they do not value him near the $11.8M he is set to make this year. The White Sox would take on Castro and Realmuto’s salaries (projected to be ~$17.9M combined), while giving just $7.75M back with Castillo’s contract. If Jeter is trying to shed payroll in Miami like we all think he is, this trade would make sense for both sides. Realmuto wants out of Miami, and this might be one of the Marlins’ best chances to trade him and still get some high value back for him. At the same time, I could see the Marlins asking for more.

SUMMARY

Potential 2019 Lineup (After April 15th):

CF – Fowler

2B – Moncada

LF – Brantley

1B – Abreu

RF – Jimenez

DH – Palka/Davidson

C – Realmuto

SS – Anderson

3B – Castro

2019 Bench

UTIL – Yolmer Sanchez

UTIL – Leury Garcia

C – Omar Narvaez

2019 Starting Rotation

Hyun-Jin Ryu

Carlos Rodon

Reynaldo Lopez

Lucas Giolito

Edwin Jackson

2019 Bullpen

LHP – Caleb Frare

LHP – Jace Fry

LHP – Aaron Bummer

MRP – Carson Fulmer (yup, he’s still on my roster)

MRP – Ian Hamilton

SU – Nate Jones

CL – Zack Burdi

Payroll Estimate: ~ $110.85 million

Okay, so I went a little bit over the limit of $110M (or $105M, depending on where you read). I also assumed each player still on pre-arb would make $600,000. That means this payroll estimate might be a little bit too low still.

The team has three glaring holes in my opinion: SP, OF, and 3B. They could use an upgrade at C as well, especially if Collins doesn’t stick behind the plate. This offseason plan tackles all of these holes through a mixture of trades and free agent signings. If I were to change anything to lower the payroll a bit, I’d try and trade for guys like Domingo Santana or Joc Pederson to fill that CF hole instead (Santana would have to learn CF, but his bat would be nice). However, either of those trades would most likely require the White Sox to give up higher level prospects than what I proposed. The most important part: Cease, Kopech, Dunning, etc. were not traded. I’d be willing to add some higher level prospects if the return was really that great as well. At the end of the day, my trades may be a bit light for other teams, but as long as the biggest guys aren’t included, I’d be willing to listen on anyone in most any trade this offseason if I were in Rick Hahn’s shoes.

I’d love to see Manny Machado sign with the White Sox – I still believe the chances are greater than zero. However, I set up this plan with the idea that the White Sox would not be able to pry him away from the crown jewels that are New York or Los Angeles. If I were to change this to include Machado, I would definitely not be trading for Fowler or Realmuto/Castro, as those were ways for the White Sox to take on high salary, high upside players from other teams who don’t necessarily want/need the players and their salary.

As I said at the beginning, the White Sox should be turning a corner this season. The team doesn’t need to contend for a Wild Card, but I believe with the added talent and expected progress from Anderson, Moncada, Giolito, Lopez, and the bullpen, this team could win 75-80 games. Let me know what you think! This is armchair GM Jordan Lazowski, signing off!

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BeefLoaf108

In my estimation, it looks like the Fowler trade is an overpay (I think they’d gladly take a low end prospect if the White Sox picked up the whole contract, and the Realmuto trade looks like an underpay, I would think the Marlins are going to get at least one top 100 prospect, probably more. Otherwise, I like this plan, I’d like it more if the pitching adds were more substantial, the offense is good!

Neat_on_the_rocks

The Marlins trade is a woeful underpay. There is no world where Micker Adolfo is the best prospect they can manage to get back for him.

I’m guessing any JT trade STARTS with a Collins + Dunning type of package.

KenWo4LiFe

If all it takes is Collins and Dunning then they better get him.

KenWo4LiFe

I like Cutch at the same salary over Brantley. Otherwise good. But it’s going to cost more for realmuto.