Trooper Galactus’s Offseason Plan
PREAMBLE
Okay, the White Sox have had young players post star-level seasons and several are still pre-arbitration. The financial flexibility is there, the money has been saved, it’s time to spend the damn money already. On the one hand, it’s a bit laughable that I’m submitting an offseason plan with a $150 million payroll. On the other hand, that would have been good for THIRTEENTH in the league in 2019, so as far as I’m concerned this is the level the team should be spending at compared to their peers.
ARBITRATION-ELIGIBLE PLAYERS
- Alex Colomé, $10.3M – Tender
- Yolmer Sánchez, $6.2M – Non-tender
- James McCann, $4.9M – Tender
- Carlos Rodon, $4.5M – Tender
- Leury García, $4M – Tender
- Evan Marshall, $1.3M – Tender
- Josh Osich, $1M – Tender
- Ryan Goins, $900K – Non-tender
I don’t think any of these are particularly surprising. While I’m not a huge fan of Colome at that figure, I prefer that to diving into the free agent market for a pitcher of similar caliber or giving him a multi-year deal for less AAV. Besides, the White Sox need to somehow make good on trading away a “catcher” who posted a 120 OPS+ in 2019. I’ve been a pretty ardent defender of Yolmer, but even I’m not going to defend giving a backup infielder that kind of scrape. Conversely, I’m not a believer in McCann, but he even in his down second half he provided enough value to justify that figure.
I considered non-tendering Rodon, but this team will need late-season reinforcements and depth, and even at that kind of money I like him as a depth piece. Leury’s too useful as a Swiss-Army knife to let him walk, even if he’s at best a capable fill-in at most positions. Osich and Marshall are both worth those meager sums, and Goins is redundant with Mendick around.
CLUB OPTIONS
- Welington Castillo: $8 million/$500,000 buyout – PFFFFFFFFFT!!!! lol
OTHER IMPENDING FREE AGENTS
- Jose Abreu (made $16M in 2019) – Re-sign, 2/$25 million
- Iván Nova (made $9,166,167 in 2019) – Let go
- Jon Jay (made $4M in 2019) – Wasn’t he already let go?
- Hector Santiago (made $2M in 2019 on split contract) – Let go
Abreu didn’t really justify a $16 million salary given his performance the last two seasons, but he’s still worth keeping around at $12.5 million a season (roughly commensurate with a 1.5 WAR player) on performance alone, and there’s no doubting his value as a leader on the team. Nova’s recovered well from a disastrous first half, but I’m really not interested in bringing him back when his season numbers were generally mediocre overall and probably a best-case scenario for him.
Neither Jay nor Santiago is worth retaining at pretty much any price, though Santiago might be worth a minor league deal at least.
FREE AGENTS
No. 1: Gerrit Cole, 10 years/$275 million (40/35/35/30/30/25/25/20/20/15), opt-out after four years. Yup, that’s crazy years/money, and that’s what it’s gonna take to get Cole. If he exercised the opt-out he’d be going back into the free agent market with 6 years and $135 million remaining on his contract at age 33, so if he’s good enough to use it, it means he’s been REALLY, REALLY good. Heck, I’d even be willing to give an opt-out at year 3 if it gets him to sign.
No. 2: Zack Wheeler, 4 years/$60 million (15m x 4), vesting option for 1 year/$15 million (600 IP over first four years). Wheeler has finally put everything together the last two seasons, and while interest will be somewhat tempered by his injury history, I’m willing to give him what I believe will be a year more than other teams (with a vesting option) at a competitive AAV. He’ll slot well into the middle of the rotation.
NOTE: If they can get Dallas Keuchel for the same price, I’d sign him instead, but I get the feeling he’s going to get more.
No. 3: Yasmani Grandal, 4 years/$70 million ($17.5m x 4). The White Sox had the opportunity to sign him with almost zero competition last year for less money and didn’t bother. Time to pony up and get him, because going to the well with McCann again just seems like a recipe for disaster.
No. 4: Corey Dickerson, 2 years/$20 million. Dickerson provides some decent left-handed pop and the ability to fake it in the outfield in a pinch at a price that fits in well here.
No. 5: Wade Miley, 2 years/$18 million. Yesterday’s punch line is today’s free agent target. Not a hugely durable guy, but somebody who can give you some credible innings to start the season and possibly transition to the bullpen later (or be traded given the relatively light money involved).
No. 6: Daniel Hudson, 1 year/$5 million, vesting option for 1 year/$5 million with 40 appearances. Hudson’s had a solid bounce-back and is now icing opposing hitters in the postseason. The limited money involved is a testament to his significant injury history, but the vesting option is an appropriate enticement, I believe.
TRADES
No. 1: Trade Dylan Cease to the Seattle Mariners for Mitch Haniger. The Mariners look like they’re ready to go scorched earth on their roster, and I absolutely want Haniger in right field. He’s a decent defender and solid hitter, but he suffered some bad injury luck in 2019 (and was still far more valuable than any White Sox right fielder). Dickerson exists as an emergency backfill if needed. I originally tried to work this trade by headlining it with Dunning and Adolfo, but I just don’t think that gets it done with other suitors likely in on the deal. I’d sooner let go of Cease (who I think will be limited by durability and inefficiency in his career, just my opinion) than deal from the Robert/Kopech/Vaughn/Madrigal tier. If necessary, I’d throw in a low-level prospect or two, but pretty much all the real value is in Cease.
SUMMARY
Starting Lineup
CF – Luis Robert ($550k)
3B – Yoan Moncada ($600k)
LF – Eloy Jimenez ($2.33m)
DH – Corey Dickerson ($10m)
1B – Jose Abreu ($12.5m)
C – Yasmani Grandal ($17.5m)
SS – Tim Anderson ($4m)
RF – Mitch Haniger ($3m)
2B – Nick Madrigal ($550k)
Bench
UT – Leury Garcia ($4m)
C – James McCann ($4.9m)
IF – Danny Mendick ($550k)
OF – Adam Engel ($600k)
(C/1B/DH – Zack Collins) ($550k)
(Note: I am slightly concerned about the lack of depth in center field, and will feel a lot better if Luis Basabe can get to AAA in short order.) Also, if they can sign Yolmer for cheap (say, $2 million), then I’d prefer him to Mendick. Collins will be lefty roster depth and ideally get enough playing time to show what he can do at the MLB level. I prefer the late-inning bat to yet another reliever, especially with the three-batter minimum rule coming up, which will keep Ricky from burning through half his bullpen in an inning, but I included an extra reliever below just to show the choice available.
Rotation
RHP – Gerrit Cole ($40m)
RHP – Lucas Giolito ($600k)
RHP – Zack Wheeler ($15m)
LHP – Wade Miley ($9m)
RHP – Reynaldo Lopez ($600k)
A bit righty heavy, but I’m not concerned given the quality of the pitchers overall. Lopez has been durable, but if he can’t maintain a better level of consistency instead of his feast-or-famine approach (weighted on the famine side) then some combination of Kopech, Rodon, or Dane Dunning will be waiting to take his place. Of course, if we can get Haniger for Dunning+, then pencil in Cease instead of Miley and save the money.
Bullpen
RHP – Alex Colome ($10.3m)
LHP – Aaron Bummer ($550k)
LHP – Jace Fry ($575k)
RHP – Daniel Hudson ($5m)
RHP – Evan Marshall ($1.3m)
RHP – Josh Osich ($1m)
RHP – Kelvin Herrera ($8.5m)
(RHP – Jimmy Cordero)
I feel pretty good about the first four pitchers on this list (I’m expecting a good bounce-back season from Fry), and I’m reasonably optimistic about the rest of them. Cordero should still have options and can start in the minors, but if they decide to carry another reliever instead of another bat (i.e.-Collins) then he’s the first guy I’d pluck from down there. Also, one could simply not retain Osich and roll with Jimmy Guns instead.
TOTAL PAYROLL: $154,055,000
Wow trading Cease! I did NOT see that coming! I’m not sure how I feel about hat, but it’s an interesting idea. I definitely like Haniger as a target since, like you said, it only make sense for them to keep subtracting (though maybe they wait until the deadline and hope he rebuilds some value).
If they can convince Jerry that high payroll are the thing going forward, I like getting a little stupid to land a guy like Cole. It’d be worth it to add an elite talent like that, even if the terms aren’t really favorable (or even fair).
One question, I’m curious why you expect Keuchel to get more than Wheeler? After the lack of interest last offseason, I’m not sure I see a bunch of teams going that hard after him (though maybe his asking price was just too high to begin the offseason last year).
I could see the less analytically inclined teams who have a stated desire to compete, (Sox, Phillies, Reds and to a lesser extent Twins) bidding up Keuchal over Wheeler.
The “smart” teams will go after Wheeler, with a hard limit to what they’ll spend.
That’s what a lot of people said about Tyler Chatwood two years ago, and he both cost a lot more than people anticipated and fell way short of what people thought he’d be.
I’m confused, who are you comparing to chatwood?
Nobody, just the sentiment. Point is, nothing is guaranteed, and Wheeler will probably still get paid because there’s a lot more “smart” teams bidding for starting pitching than I think some people appreciate. All starters are financial risks, and health tends to be a crapshoot, which is why I’d prefer Keuchel if he can be had at the same price, but I’m also partial to guys who generate grounders.
I guess I’m just surprised you think hes going to get so much after there was so little interest in him less than a year ago. I wouldn’t hate if the sox signed him, but I’m not sure I’d be thrilled if it was north of 60 mil.
Several teams are going to be going after starters, and the White Sox need to be able to out-bid those teams. Keuchel being two years older makes it a bit harder to gauge how the market will treat him, but he has a much better history of durability and posting 2-4 WAR seasons than Wheeler. As a ground ball pitcher, he also has a profile that tends to age a bit more gracefully. If it’s a choice between the two, I’d take Keuchel to add a different sort of pitcher on top of another solid lefty.
Wasnt all of that true last offseason too?
Yes, but I think there will be more teams spending this offseason, including teams who are planning to spend big.
I hope you’re right. I cant take another offseason of billionaire owners talking about how they’re out of money.
If this offseason mirrors the last two, then I really don’t give a rat’s ass what the White Sox do this offseason because the 2021 season will be cancelled anyhow.
Keuchel has provided similar performance with a much stronger track record of durability. It would not surprise me to see him get nine figures or close to it.
Wow, TG.
That Cole contract is crazytownbananapants in a fun way.
For some reason I think the playoff success will get someone to pay Hudson up to 2/20.
Hudson’s injury history is so checkered I don’t see anybody guaranteeing him that sort of money. If they do they’re welcome to him.
As for Cole, the money on the front end is stupid, but if he has a late career like Greinke the last half wouldn’t look bad at all.
He’s averaged 63 appearances per year over the last half-decade.
I agree that I wouldn’t pay him, but I think someone will pony up 2 guaranteed years at 8-10 per.
Well, he was also really bad a few of those years.
No one would ever give $20 million to an injury prone reliever coming off a good postseason…
Exactly. I think people kinda learned from that. But hey, I probably overshot on a few of those free agent contracts, so if some of that dough gets redirected to Hudson, so be it.
Finally, a plan with some balls. I like it, even though the Haniger deal scares me. It’s a great contract, but if I’m giving up Cease I’d like to be more sure that the guy I’m getting in return is going to be on the field.
Well, I’m pretty sure the exploded testicle won’t happen again. And, hey, even if it does, it definitely wouldn’t happen a third time!
He’d certainly be a eunuch talent.
The plan may have balls, but that shouldn’t imply the targets do.
Dang. TG with the plan and the zingers. ambitious FA signings, check. ballsy trade, check. I like it, mang. my biggest gripe i suppose is all you’ve added to the bullpen is Hudson. I think it needs more help. Then again, they will be pretty flush with SP’s once Kopech and Rodon are back, so perhaps that’s your help there.
I’d gone big on relievers in previous plans, but there’s too great a need elsewhere to blow too much money on top FA relievers. Given how unpredictable they are, I’m satisfied with having quite a bit of prospect depth in the high minors of some good relievers (Hamilton, Medeiros, Johnson, etc.).
Nicely played!
Bravo.
The bench (much like the Ukraine) is weak. Spend that much, gotta add a guy or two to that bench. Otherwise, I’d love the Haniger trade, the signings sounds good to me as well.
McCann and Garcia are practically ideal bench players. As for Engel and Mendick, sure, you could find better options for a few million, but after watching Jon Jay, Emilio Bonifacio, Jeff Keppinger, and so many other guys come in and lay an egg, I’m not too concerned about having even good players on the back end of the bench so much as guys who can fulfill a defensive role on the roster.
Also, on a team with seven or eight guys who can knock out 25+ home runs, I’m not too concerned with carrying such limited players on the bench.
I like this plan. I liked your plan from last season as well. Targeting the Coles of the world is a path to improvement, and this team as constructed should contend for a playoff spot in 2020 and for a few years after.
There are a couple targets I will aim for in my plan, and even the Cease trade isn’t as nutty as a deal I will propose. Can we petition to make you managing partner?
Nah, I like my job(s), and I’m pretty sure the White Sox don’t want somebody who is willing to bankrupt them for a few championships.
While I’m not against the idea of trading Cease, I’m leery of Haniger. Doesn’t have the track record to convince me that 2018 was just a one-time thing. Was very much all-or-nothing last season even before getting hurt.
Sort of fits with the rest of his plan, though. High risk, expensive, chance at a big payoff.
I mean, if we’re talking track records I’d take Haniger’s over Cease’s. I knew that was going to be a lightning rod of a trade, but I’m sick of submitting half-assed rebuild-centric plans that take the realities of the ownership into account. This is what I think SHOULD be done, or at least some facsimile of this.
Grandal turned down 4/60 by the Mets last season IIRC. He’s looking for at least 75 million over four years. Absolutely still would be worth it at that price.
And oh yeah, a plan that isn’t scared to go for the Cole Sweepstakes.
He’s also a year older than he was last year. 4/70 should get the job done barring some sort of crazy bidding war.
There apparently wasn’t any other offers at that level either.
There were also only two teams in on Manny Machado. Another offseason like last year and the players will pretty much vote to strike before 2020 is even over.
So any contract of 4/60 or more, with this year’s earnings, gets him a total of at least 5/76. Way more than the 4/55 he turned down from the Mets. Betting on himself was a smart move.
In retrospect sure. What if he blew out his arm this past year?
Then, in retrospect, it would not have been as smart.
My point is that B-P shouldn’t ignore last year’s salary when guessing what he’ll be paid this year.
I don’t think Cole will get 10 years from any team. That is the money and years a franchise pitcher in his mid 20s will get, but as good as Cole is, he won’t get more than 5 or 6 years. But I absolutely love the signing.
I’m not sure the years alone really matter. It’s the dollars. More years is just a way to stretch out the payments.
That was my philosophy. He makes half (or less) in his last three years of my deal what he does in the first year. It incentivizes his opt-out a bit more that way also.
The years matter. Roster spots are valuable commodities.
This team gave significant playing time to Palka, Tilson, Cordell, Covey, and a host of other trash players this season. Cole taking up a spot in 2028 doesn’t register as a problem to me.
I’ve got the number at 7. Should not take 10 to get it done.
Corbin got 6/140 last year and has a little more of an injury history. I think 8 years is realistic for Cole
Chris Sale is better than Corbin and left handed as well, yet he couldn’t get more than 5 years.
Is this the highest payroll so far?
I think so, and I’m aware Jerry ain’t signing off on it, even if it fills the stadium every day with the South Side faithful.
Not knocking it at all.
It’s a fun, super risky, fantasy team style plan.
I was just keeping a mental note, as we’re currently the 2 ends of the payroll spectrum.
Well, as I said, that payroll wouldn’t even put them in the top ten assuming the 2019 numbers mostly carry over. If they want to keep boasting that Jerry spends when the time is right, keeping them toward the middle of the league in payroll isn’t really something to brag about. One of the things that kneecapped them in 2015-16 was their unwillingness to keep up with payroll increases across the league.
This. The payroll should be top ten. If you build it, they will come…
I love this plan. If only we had an owner who would approve this level of budget…
Well, it’s the whole group of them. Jerry doesn’t own the team, just a large portion of it, and he runs lock-step with the primary goal of all of the stakeholders: make money first, win second. What I wouldn’t give for a guy like Ilitch or Steinbrenner who would be willing to spend his way to a ring (not to mention fire a few people along the way).