Let’s go All-In Plan
PREAMBLE
While we all are eager as all hell for the off-season to start the second the WS finishes, it did just dawn on me it kinda doesn’t make sense to truly do one of these plans until the landscape is kinda settled. Now that QO offers are out of the way, and Will Smith has officially lit the stove, I think its time to drop in a final plan. And after surveying the landscape of the league, its time to go All-In (120M of All-In). Also work is boring and fake GM is fun, so here we are. A truly possible off-season plan, read up Rick.
ARBITRATION-ELIGIBLE PLAYERS
- Alex Colomé, $10.3M- No
- Yolmer Sánchez, $6.2M- No
- James McCann, $4.9M- Yes
- Carlos Rodon, $4.5M- Yes
- Leury García, $4M- No
- Evan Marshall, $1.3M- Yes
- Ryan Goins, $900K- No
I would be very interested in bringing Colome back at a more reasonable salary but I just can’t swallow it at $10.3M. It is just too much money for a non-dominant 1 inning reliever. Same for Yolmer, would love you back, but not happening at 6.2M. McCann is an easy yes, Rodon as well. Too much talent for that price. Leury non tender may be controversial to some but he is oft injured and not really very good at anything, so $4M for a really replaceable piece doesn’t seem like sound investing. Marshall for $1.3M works for me, and Goins is gone. Moving on.
CLUB OPTIONS
Write “pick up” or “decline” after the option.
- Welington Castillo: $8 million/$500,000 buyout- Use IFA Money to trade!
OTHER IMPENDING FREE AGENTS
Try to retain, or let go?
- Jose Abreu (made $16M in 2019)- Qualifying Offer Accepted
- Iván Nova (made $9,166,167 in 2019)- Bye
- Jon Jay (made $4M in 2019)- Absolutely not
- Hector Santiago (made $2M in 2019 on split contract)- No, but somehow yes.
FREE AGENTS
No. 1: Zack Wheeler (Five Years, $90 million). My #1 target. Dylan Cease is not close to ready to being a top of the rotation playoff guy who you can count on week in week out not only keep you in games but win you games (See Lucas’s 2019). Zack Wheeler comes with the baked in risk of a history of arm issues, but to me he is the undoubted best value on the SP board. Wheeler has all the makings off a #2 guy, his peripheral data shows he has been nothing short of excellent since his 2018 return. Wheeler is the Sox best bet at giving Lucas a true running mate at the top of the rotation besides Michael Kopech, who really shouldn’t be counted on too heavily for 2020. Plus, with Wheeler’s age and contract, the Sox would be set with a terrific SP core of Gio-Wheeler-Kopech-Cease for the next 5 years. To me, this is the must get target on the board, and while Fangraphs projected Wheeler for a far smaller deal, I would even be ok going to 5-100 and making Wheeler the first $100M man for the White Sox. He can be a complete gamechanger for this roster.
No. 2: Yasmani Grandal (Four years, $70 million). Another home run FA pairing and a top priority for me. James McCann was fun, but any type of research is going to show you; the 1st half was a mirage. Counting on McCann being an All-Star level contributer for all of 2020 is foolish, let’s instead let him settle into a role where he can mash lefties off the bench and be the personal catcher for Gio. Grandal on the other hand IS a bonadife All-Star level catcher, and would represent a colossal upgrade to a long time position of weakness for the Sox. We all know about him, his framing and switch hitting our perfect fits for this team, so ill stop the write up now, but go get Yasmani #MasCubanos.
No. 3: Gio Gonzalez (One year, $6 million). We need a lefty, we need a veteran, and I am not paying for Dallas Keuchel’s decline. Gio comes home all these years later for a fun little double Gio action.
No. 4: Curtis Granderson (Ambassador role). Hit righties off the bench and if he’s toast slides into a role with ACE full time.
TRADES (All trades done using BTV for some semblance of fairness)
No. 1: Trade Andrew Vaughn for Mitch Haniger and Sam Tuivaila.
Ok so we start with a shocker. Obviously there are a lot of people who want to hold on to Andrew Vaughn at all costs, and I get that, especially after Jose so kindly only locked us into one year of his possible decline. However, I am looking at the next 3 years as a possible golden age of White Sox baseball led by my two superstars, Yoan Moncada and Lucas Giolito. So everything I do this off-season is going to be about maximize my chances at winning the AL Central from 2020-2022 and giving me 3 chances at winning the playoffs lottery. Insert, Mitch Haniger, with 3 years of control left. I am choosing to outright ignore Haniger’s 2019 due to the nature of his injury and instead focusing on his 2018, and the numbers don’t lie, this dude is a flat out stud, and can ease our OF nightmares of a Eloy-Ozuna combo or something off the like. Haniger was good for 4.5 fWAR in 2o18, with a 10.3% barrels rate and an average EV of 90.3 mph. This dude is a flat out stud. Yeah, Andrew Vaughn is going to be a tough ask to meet, but frankly the depth of our minor leagues is just to shallow to pry Haniger out of Seattle for anything less. So we get an interesting, cheap Bullpen piece and slot Mitch into RF.
No. 2: Trade Zack Collins for JD Martinez.
I am not sure exactly what the Red Sox want, but I will guess Zack Collins here as they have the AB’s at C, 1B and DH and he is basically free. The White Sox absorb JD’s entire contract and give the Red Sox some financial breathing room. Lot of people targeted JD before he opted in, and my reasons are no different. This dude is a professional hitter and will bring quality to our lineup and clubhouse. I can see us getting burned a bit on the back end of his deal but I am going to run that risk for the knowledge and ability he will bring over, and the fact I am never going to ask him to play the field. And as an added bonus, like Grandal, he is Cuban-American #MasCubanos.
No. 3: Trade Reynaldo Lopez for Robbie Ray and Archie Bradley
This is accepted on BTV but I can at least see a way the Diamondbacks, who were pretty close to a WC berth last year, demand more. For now though, here is our deal. 1 season of Robbie Ray and 2 of Archie is definitely a little worrisome with all our youth, but Ray just fits so well and we should still have money to bring him back next year if Jerry wants to seriously compete. Ray for a projected ~11M for me is just such a no brainer compared to paying $12-15M a year for 3 year deals with Dallas Keuchel (washed stuff) or Hyun Jin Ryu (injury concerns). We obviously need another lefty, and we need another horse up there with Gio and Wheeler, so insert Robbie Ray. Archie Bradley provides a cheaper replacement for Colome. Obviously giving up ReyLo is difficult, he is an OG to this rebuild, but for a reliable #3 and our new closer its the price you have to pay. Arizona knows it’s real contention window hasn’t opened yet and cashes in on Ray and Bradley to get 4 years of trying to harness Lopez’s pure stuff.
No. 4: Salary dump Kelvin Herrera with Blake Rutherford to the San Francisco Giants
Blake Rutherford just isn’t a part of my plans but still has some TV, so we pair him with Kelvin Herrera to a team with zero hope of contention in order to shed Kelvin’s 8M and get us to $120M. Pretty simple deal. I expect no return.
SUMMARY
- Mitch Haniger, RF
- Yoan Moncada, 2B
- JD Martinez, DH
- Eloy Jimenez, LF
- Jose Abreu, 1B
- Yasmani Grandal, C
- Tim Anderson, SS
- Luis Robert, CF
- Nick Madrigal, 2B
God that is gorgeous,
Bench-
James McCann, C/Adam Engel 4OF/Danny Mendick UTIL IF/Curtis Granderson.
- Lucas Giolito
- Zack Wheeler
- Robbie Ray
- Dylan Cease
- Gio Gonzalez
Bullpen
- Michael Kopech
- Sam Tuivilala
- Evan Marshall
- Jace Fry
- Jimmy Cordero
- Ryan Burr
- Aaron Bummer
- Archie Bradley
Payroll~ $120M (Note: Rodon not included. We will trick Jerry on this one, make it a “mid-season addition”)
Remaining notable prospects/depth in minors
- SP: Dunning, Stiever, Lambert, Flores, Thompson/Dalquist
- RP: Heuer, Johnson, Hamilton, Burdi?
- C: Zavala
- 1B: Sheets
- INF: Yolbert Sanchez
- OF: Adolfo, Walker, Basabe, Gonzalez
Still a decent base of guys to call up/trade away if needed, especially at SP and OF. It is no longer a top farm system but it isn’t totally bare bones and we do add a top 11 pick mid season.
All in all, I think I have built a legit AL Central favorite for 2020-2022 for $120M on the dot. There is pitching and power all throughout the lineup, and the additions of Grandal and Haniger help shore up the defense as well. Everyone in the core besides Ray and Abreu is under control moving forward, and this roster is set for a real run of playoff baseball if Rick Renteria doesn’t get in the way. Enjoy the winter, everyone
Bonus: Free Cuban Sandwhiches any game two of Jose, Yoan, LuBob, Yasmani or JD goes yard. Marketing gem, Jerry will love it. Maybe make a Cuban section by the Minoso statue like the K zone in Seattle. Ill leave this to Boyer.
Love it. Completely agree on your top two priorities and would love to nab Haniger but with Evan White as 1B future, doubt Vaughn holds much interest. Maybe could mix and match with ReyLo and Collins or maybe swap out Vaughn for Carson Fulmer and ??
I would be quite suprised if the Mariners passed on a universal top 50 prospect in baseball because of positional fit. Evan White can play OF or DH or something, or one of them won’t make it, or they can trade one, they are so far away they will want value more than hypothetical roster fit. Fulmer is a great trade idea though, maybe toss him in with ReyLo to Arizona, he needs a new organization badly.
Love this plan overall. I’m a little iffy on the Lopez-Ray trade, but I think the rest is great.
It is a risk for sure, but the need for a lefty is real and Robbie Ray is just such a more enticing option to me than paying FA $$ for multiple years of Keuchel or Ryu.