Podcast: 2019 GM Meetings Recap
Guest: James Fegan, The Athletic
The Rundown:
- Helping to provide additional insight on the happenings from the GM Meetings, White Sox beat reporter James Fegan of The Athletic joins the show to discuss Jose Abreu, other offseason plans, and his MVP ballot.
- (40:07) Josh and Jim discuss Abreu being a win-win situation for all parties, plus ponder what could the punishment be for the Houston Astros cheating scandal
- (62:04) With a clearer sense of who is actually available as free agents after the GM Meetings, Josh and Jim share their Top 5 Free Agent Targets for the White Sox
- (83:00) This week’s P.O. Sox mailbag with questions about Michael Kopech, White Sox FO working well together, and which players would hurt to lose after a 40-man crunch.
Presented by Wix and SeatGeek
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Oh man! I missed these podcasts badly. My best companion on Monday mornings. Thanks.
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A pox on anyone who is bent out of shape on a single Moncada vote.
A pox on anyone….
Can you translate that into English for simple mortals like me?
Derived from a line in “Romeo and Juliet” where a dying Mercutio says, “a pox on both of your houses,” referring to the warring Capulets and Montagues. In my case I’m wishing that anyone who came down on Fegan for his ballot should be afflicted with smallpox.
Wow…That was something!
I’m nothing if not vindictive.
Im infuriated by any top 5 free agent list not having Cole Strasburg, Rendon as sox possibilities.
Grandal, Wheeler, Castellanos types should be in addition too said top tier players.
I like Jim’s top 5. I also like Josh except Ozuna and Keuchel which I think will be improvement by the merits of not being Cordells or Coveys.
My top 5 additions would be:
Grandal
Wheeler
Castellanos
Ken Giles
Pomeranz (I had Will Smith in my OPP, but he is unavailable).
I do like Donalsdon idea Jim has. That guy is a blast in the dugout too. Winning attitude. I think he only trails Mike Trout (fWAR wise) since Trout began his career. Incredibly underrated player.
Infuriated by the list, or the reality that it reflects? Because if I made a list, the Sox wouldn’t be in the running for any of those. Not because I don’t think they should be, but because I don’t think there’s any chance they actually will be.
The reality. Every team is in every running for every player if you have the top offer. Not sure how many times we have to go over that. The sox on top of that should have some added appeal being that Chicago is a great destination city. It feels like they have already punted on 3 big name free agents this off season, heck they couldnt even make JD opt out with whispers of some of their interest. They choose to continually manage themselves as a small market team.
The sticking point arises when one considers who it is reasonable to expect the Sox to sign. Strasburg seems highly likely to return to the Nats provided they give him a respectable pay raise. Rendon doesn’t really plug the current holes in the offense (DH and RF) and he’s not a lefty bat. There’s something to be said for signing the best player available regardless of how well he “fits”; but, spending top money and still needing a DH, a right-fielder, and a lefty bat seems questionable. And, while I expect the Sox to put a bid in on Cole, I find it hard to see how they win a bidding war involving the Yankees, the two LA teams plus a couple of others.
Had JD Martinez opted in to free agency, I’m sure he’d have been on Jim’s and Josh’s list; he’d have been a perfect fit with limited suitors. As things stand, the Sox don’t seem in a good position to sign any of the 3 top tier free agents regardless of how much money they’re willing to spend.
In free agency, almost 100% of the players go where they are offered the most money. If the Sox want to be taken seriously, they have to offer the most money. I think any one of the top 3 guys would go to the Sox if they were willing to pay them more than anyone else. Now getting the Sox to outbid everyone else is a whole different ball game.
It’s not about the most money when the money is more or less the same from several teams. What amount could the Sox offer Cole that the Yanks or Angels won’t match or top? I’m presuming that Strausburg is basically just renegotiating his contract so the Nats have a “first refusal” position–if they give him a decent raise, he stays. The Sox might get Rendon if they offer him what Machado turned down ($250/8yrs, guaranteed) but, as I said, that still leaves holes at DH, in RF and still no lefty-power. I don’t think it’s just about the Sox being cheap when it comes to the top 3 free agents.
I think, at a minimum, the Sox need to sign one of Cole, Rendon, Strasburg, Wheeler or Grandal, or trade for JD or Betts (though the cost for Betts will probably be too high). Management needs to make a statement that this isn’t the same old cheap regime. It’s past time to play like the big boys and be serious.
On a related note, would you trade Madrigal for Betts? I’m torn on that one. The Sox need to make a statement and getting Betts would definitely do that. Then sign Moustakas to play 2nd.
I’m probably not giving up any 50 grade or higher players for an expiring contract this season without a pre-trade extension in place. I’d maybe do that for a player with 2 years left. The better net value is signing free agents even if it takes longer deals and a draft pick.
Yeah, that’s my feeling too, though the buzz that that would create would sure generate a lot of interest (and revenue).
Big ticket free agents offer the same buzz and ticket revenue opportunities. So would getting production out of a first round pick. Sacrificing future value to avoid long-term contract costs doesn’t put them in a better overall situation.
You are absolutely correct on that, karko, but as I posted below, I’m skeptical that they will succeed in acquiring a top free agent. I’d much rather see them add one of the top 5 guys.
With Betts on this team for even a 1 year contract, and a couple of SP will immediately make this team play off bound. Flags fly forever. Madrigal does not guarantee anything. I see Madrigal as Juan Pierre in the infield. I hope I am wrong and he turns into Altuve.
I agree with this sentiment.
They’re not at a point where it makes sense to give up players who are both immediately useful and offer long-term value, even if it’s just “infield Juan Pierre.” The math works better on signing free agents even if they cost draft picks.
Betts is projected to cost $28m anyway. If it comes down to it, just give that money to someone and sacrifice the draft pick for a player who won’t be ready in 3 years (or ever) instead of a guy who can help now.
It’s needless complication and inefficiency.
The reason to do it is if they don’t sign Rendon, Grandal, Cole or one of the top free agents. Trading for Betts wouldn’t require his approval. I also would much rather prefer they go the free agent route. But I’m very skeptical that they will be successful in that regard.
If they’re not successful in free agency then that’s by design. At that point, I’d rather they go PauliePaulie’s route of wait-and-see, including the risk of outright failure that invites, than have these guys try to cobble together a 1-year attempt at the expense of their long-term picture.
If you want to trade with Boston, Kelvin Herrera for Nathan Eovaldi makes much more sense.
I see it as simple as this:
Betts => a super-star we haven’t had in more than a decade. Post season games – Even if it’s just one year. That’s fun. I wouldn’t blame you if you forgot how does it feel.
Madrigal => More controlled and cheap so-so players Hahn loves and hopes that by having a bunch of them, we might win 90 games.
If we are gonna buy a post season by trading Madrigal…hell yes! Do it! I wouldn’t do it for Vaughn or Roberts though.
The superstar argument is wasted on me. Anderson and Moncada are marketable enough.
What isn’t lost on me is that after this organization sold White Flag 2 on the premise it was needed to build a sustainable operation, you’re now literally saying they might as well just go about their business like it’s 2015 or 2016 again, give up the future for the now. Might as well just beg them for White Flag 3.
Also, there’s no meaningful difference in value between Madrigal and Vaughn. Liking Vaughn more is about the aesthetics of digging the long ball.
It is just ONE player Karko. Just Madrigal. I do not believe the sustainability of the operation hinges on having Madrigal. Hardly, a must have prospect.
Mookie just turned 27 years old, and came on the heel of a “bad season” of 6.6 fWAR. He will be our Christian Yelich. If the price for one year is Madrigal. Yes…do it. Keep Yolmer.
I might also undervalue Madrigal. I think he will contribute at the Major League level, but it seems here that many people think he is better than he has shown so far. He has shown so far to be a slapper who hardly strikesout. That’s Juan Pierre sans the speed.
Juan Pierre was pretty valuable. And there are sequencing benefits to adding more contact to this roster.
Juan Pierre was valuable because he stole a lot of bases. Is Madrigal that fast?
He stole 35 bases across 3 levels.
I bet you Madrigal hits more than one Home Run a year.
God Bless Pierre, but he had a puss arm, and was sub par in the field.
I hope you are right. I am not saying I hope Madrigal is bad. I really like the guy, but he ain’t Altuve or Pedroia yet. Some fans put him on the same level as Kopech and Roberts, and I am not sure he is quite there yet.
Robert is on a level by himself, where Moncada was.
The differences in value among Cease, Kopech, Madrigal, and Vaughn are slight. They’re all within a half grade of each other when accounting for production, position, proximity, and risk.
It’s a move you make to put you over the top when you are ready. Even with Betts this isn’t a championship team.
Add a couple of pitchers and it is!
They only have 3* prospects left who are currently a cut above the rest of the farm and provide the bulk of the value in the system. Trading 1 of them is not a small thing. It’s the difference between being around the top 1/3rd or so of farm systems and the bottom 1/3rd. Their farm, before any trades, is already degraded to the point where the Cubs and Astros were after trades because the Sox both never accumulated as much talent as either of those teams and have also had so much attrition.
We’re also talking about filling 1 hole for 1 season by opening up a 2nd for 6** more seasons after that.
*Kopech hasn’t technically lost prospect status. But c’mon.
**Pending when he’s promoted and the next CBA.
It is just Madrigal! He might end up being a Gordon Beckham. We are not talking about Moncada or Roberts. To me, after Vaughn, the drop in prospects falls down to a cliff. So, again, I think I might be undervaluing Madrigal.
We are talking about winning for a year vs the prospective to have Madrigal for 7 years who might end up being Gordon Beckham.
Anyway, I don’t think this is worth arguing about. If it is not done, I will be happy to have Madrigal.
1 thing that Madrigal won’t be, regardless of success or failure, is like Beckham.
Wow, what a great conversation!! I really wanted to see what you guys thought about a Madrigal for Betts trade, and you guys didn’t disappoint! Great discussion.
Here are my thoughts on this:
1. I would much prefer the Sox to sign At least one of Cole, Strasburg, Wheeler, Rendon or Grandal than making a trade for Betts. But if they don’t sign one of those 5 or trade for JD, then I would strongly consider acquiring Betts.
2. This would not be a White Flag 3 trade or a one-year gamble. It would have to be accompanied by a statement from Jerry that the White Sox will be very aggressive in doing what it takes to build a sustainable championship team. So that even if Betts left next year, they would then use that money to sign Springer or another of the top free agents next year.
3. I would hate to lose Madrigal, but this trade along with a signing of Moustakas to play 2nd would ease the sting.
4. Those two acquisitions would need to be done along with signing Bumgarner or Wheeler to add to the top of the rotation, and also someone like Hamels for the 5th spot.
A lineup of Betts, Moncada, Abreu, Eloy, Moustakas, Timmy, Robert, Collins/Mercedes (DH), McCann and a rotation of Giolito, Bumgarner/Wheeler, Cease, Lopez/Kopech, Hamels would be very impressive.
Again, none of this can happen without a firm commitment from management to keep a payroll of $130+ million moving forward. Will that happen? I doubt it, but it’s time for Jerry to put up or shut up.
I thought this was such a bad idea, I did not weigh in. Put me down as a resounding, emphatic no.
I am all for a couple big splashy moves but with the sox aversion to spending, and the fact they couldnt even get Abreu inked on a minimal deal I cant trust them to re-sign betts. Id much rather see them spend on free agents and not worry about their precious 2nd round pick loss.
I wouldn’t trust them to extend Betts because he’ll command a deal greater than or equal to the deals they wouldn’t make for Machado or Harper. But I don’t think the failure to sign Abreu to anything other than a QO deal should be considered in the same light.
Its not the same light but it is troubling. Sox are behind the curve on everything. The consistently underestimate the market, they remain close minded on NTC or early opt outs, and for some reason they think they have some allure as if they are a marque team that free agents should just flock too as if they have been winning championships left and right.
I would trade Madrigal for Betts in a heartbeat…I don’t think the RedSox would though
I think the Sox could get Betts for Madrigal and a couple of lesser prospects. I’m not sure if anyone will pay that much for one year of Betts. If the Sox get Betts, I think that would definitely signal a change in their cheap philosophy, and even if they didn’t sign Betts to an extension, I think it would send a message to players that Sox management is serious, and maybe they could get Springer or someone for next year.
Betts is better than anyone the Sox would trade for him. If the Sox didn’t have such an ironclad history of not paying players big money, I would do that in a heartbeat. Madrigal isn’t going to be a middle of the order bat, and Betts easily replaces him at the top of the order. That leaves a 7-9 type hitter who plays second base, and that can probably be found in free agency (Jim’s analysis of Hahn’s free agency track record not withstanding).
The Red Sox make that trade in a heartbeat.
They could fairly safely assume more than double the fWAR for far less than $28mil.
Trade Madrigal, NO WAY!!! If losing TitasJr. proved anything it’s not to trade talented prospects until you know what you have. Madrigal could be a bust or he could another Altuve. Whichever, he’s under team control for more than one year and he isn’t costing you $20MM.
I just find it pretty amusing that a year ago at this time, many people on here thought Madrigal would have a good chance to be a bust, now almost no one would be willing to part with him. And he can’t be compared to Tatis. No one had a clue what Tatis would become. We have a pretty good idea what Madrigal will be. I don’t really want to trade him either, but if the Sox strike out at the top end of the free agent market, I still think they need to make a strong statement this winter that they are serious. A winter where the biggest free agent acquisition is Nicholas Castellanos is another wasted winter.
Trading 6 years of Madrigal for 1 year of Betts at $28mil isn’t making a strong statement. It’s foolishly wasting prospect capital. And the Sox don’t have any to spare.
Castellanos makes sense in terms of the team’s needs. So does Wheeler or even Keuchel. Do you really think the Sox should over-pay for Rendon or lock themselves into a Price type contract-plus for Cole so that they can demonstrate that they can play with the big boys? The White Sox had abysmal production from RF and DH; they also had below average performance from their 4th and 5th starters. How is signing 2nd or even 3rd tier free agents who will provide better than average production from those spots “another wasted winter.”
If Castellanos is their top signing, as I mentioned, then they are not signing a top 3 pitcher. You say they had below average production from their 4th and 5th starters. That implies their top 3 were fine. Who were their top 3 starters? They need at minimum a number 2 starter. Signing Castellanos and a number 4 and 5 starter would indeed be a wasted winter because they need to do so much more.
A 3rd tier free agent will provide better production that they had last year. That doesn’t mean it will be anywhere near above average production. I could provide as much production as the Sox got from right field last year.
I’m all for signing Castellanos. He would be a significant upgrade. But they need to supplement that with a top 2 starter and a big bat at DH. Castellanos can’t be their biggest addition.
We know that Hahn has repeatedly said that “the money will be spent.” We know that the team was prepared to guarantee $250MM for 8 years to Machado. We know that Hahn and KW have repeatedly mentioned that acquiring elite veteran talent to support the core of young players is integral to the moving from rebuilding to contention. I think they’re eager to make a “huge acquisition”; but, as I view the free agent market, I think it’s unlikely that the Sox will sign Rendon, Cole or Strausburg regardless of how much money they’re willing to spend.
I don’t expect them to sign any of those three either, but they should go really hard after Grandal and Wheeler. Adding those two plus a right fielder like Castellanos would be a successful offseason.
I agree they need to sign the best free agent pitcher that they can. I’d prefer MadBum to Wheeler but I think he opts to stay in the NL. I’m not sold on Grandal, he brings a lot if you view him as a good hitting catcher, but he’s a .240 hitter who averages 25 HRs and he’ll command something like $115/5yrs. I don’t think he’s the left-handed power bat that you’d want for that price.
Unfortunately, it’s also pretty clear that there was no way Machado was going to settle for 8/$250M. So I’m not sure that offer is an indication of them willing to spend at the top of the market.
Giolito, Nova and Lopez all had + WARs; I would expect that Kopech and Cease will record plus WARs this coming season as will Wheeler, MadBum, Keuchel and about a dozen other pitchers who are currently free agents all of whom posted +2 or better WARs last season. Any two of these pitchers would add much needed depth to the rotation.
I’d say we have less of an idea about Madrigal than we had about Macus Semien when we traded him for one year of Jeff Samardzija. Acquiring Samardzija, at the time, signaled that the Sox were “serious” about winning the division. I’m not sure the Sox are in a position to make the big off-season signing that puts the over the top. They’re still working to get to .500.
Comparing Samardzija with Mookie Betts. Two worlds apart.
The problem with this whole discussion is that we have no idea if the front office is even considering making huge acquisitions. If they act the way they have in the past then this whole discussion has been pointless and we’re screwed.
I’m afraid they will sign Kole Calhoun, Cole Hamels and Travis Wood and claim that, along with Abreu, the “money has been spent”.
Add Gerrit Cole and some Cold Cole 45 and we’re in business!
Late December headline: “White Sox fans get Cole in their stockings – and like it!”
I’m not comparing Samardzija and Betts, I’m citing a previous example of trading a young prospect for a veteran player in the last year of team control.
Most 2020 White Sox off-season move?
My nomination is Elijah Tatis and Alec Hansen for Johnny Cueto and $26m.
Kole Calhoun.
.816OPS vs RHP, solid defender, easy 2+ fWAR as the strong side of a RF platoon.
2/$16mil. Make it happen, Rick!
SMASH CUT TO MID-JUNE:
“Calhoun was seen as a low-risk signing with skills — defense defense, a left-handed bat with some patience and pop — that the Sox could put to use in the corners. But he’s spent the year struggling to keep his average above .200 even after the weather has warmed, in part because the White Sox’ plans to platoon him fell through. The defensive metrics haven’t been favorable either, resulting in what appears to be another pro-scouting failure.”
Actual Mid-June Fangraphs Story:
With RF platon bat Cole Calhoun, the Rays seem to have found themselves another solid lower-cost contributor.
Whose last name rhymes with ‘chances’
I think Calhoun should be an easy acquisition but he’ll command a bit more than 8mil AAV.
I don’t think Calhoun will command much.
Thames would be another Soxy sounding move
Cueto? Coop will fix him. Just give him a Cutter and he’ll be generating ground balls in no time and then we can flip him for more lottery tickets. Works every time.
As 2020 FA signings, I dislike Ozuna, Donaldson, Castellanos, Keuchel and Cole very much.
You dislike good players?
Why Cole? The rest I can understand on the merits of age or defensive shortcomings.
There isn’t a RH pitcher on the planet I would give 7/$210mil+. Foolish investment.
The 670 innings over the last 3 years and the fact that it would make up 20%-25% of the payroll are secondary, but pertinent for him and the Sox specifically.
Did you think Max Scherzer was a foolish investment for the Nats five years ago?
Or Verlander
Verlander was 7/$180mil.
Looked like a big mistake before Houston got their computers and ball doctoring substances on him.
I’m not claiming it fails 100% of the time. I’m saying risk/reward it’s a bad move.
Story on MLB.com yesterday regarding Twins 2020 payroll, the quote – “Gleeman (Athletic writer)assumes the Twins will have a minimum payroll of $135 million in 2020 and projects the current payroll to be $86 million, leaving around $50 million for the team to spend. ” I know Reinsdorf and the Sox are cheap, but…if Sox would spend $70 to match the large market Twinkies, and fill all their major holes, my choices: Grandal ($18AAV), Ryu and Bumgarner ($38AAV), Corey Dickerson ($8AAV); this leaves a little for reliever/midseason. Certainly there are better RF options, but all defensively questionable. Are the Twinks really outspending long term?
I wonder if Menechino’s hiring increases the chances of the Sox signing Ozuna.
Good point.
Thanks Josh and Jim for entertaining me on my shitty commute this morning- I’m already missing my Monday morning fix!
I would take these five free-agent signings:
1. Grandal.
2. Puig.
3. Dickerson.
4 and 5. Any two of Keuchel, Baumgarner, Ryu, Wheeler.
I think that’s a do-able 5. I’m a bit troubled that there’s no experienced DH among them. Maybe replace Dickerson with Edwin Encarnación or simply add him. I see Puig, Dickerson and Kole Calhoun as more or less equally acceptable fixes for RF. Ozuna would be preferable if his price tag isn’t too high. Also, I’d take any one of those five starters and settle for a 2nd or third tier starter such as Alex Wood, Brett Anderson, or Julio Teheran to fill out the rotation. So much depends on how the market plays out. If, for example,the teams who miss out on Cole target Wheeler, the bidding for him could escalate quickly or his injury history could keep his price low. However it plays out, the Sox should be active in this market.
30 mil plus for a player who might get in 30 games, and you say Abreu is overvalue. Build up the bullpen, find out if Mercedes bat is for real. Give one of your young outfielder a shot,.