How feasible is a Luis Robert or Nick Madrigal contract extension?

Nick Madrigal (Laura Wolff / Charlotte Knights)

Before Jose Abreu overshadowed it by signing a three-year extension with the White Sox, I was planning on writing about the six-year extension that Evan White signed with the Seattle Mariners.

It’s notable and relevant because White, who signed for $24 million with three club options that can maximize the contract’s worth at $55.5 million, hasn’t yet played in the majors. In fact, he hasn’t even played at Triple-A. White, a first baseman whom the Mariners selected 17th overall in the 2017 draft, just got done hitting .293/.350/.488 for Double-A Arkansas. Now, Seattle’s first base job is his whenever he wants it because who cares about service time now?

It’s a noteworthy development, but then Abreu signed and created more White Sox-specific content, so White slipped through the cracks. Fortunately, Sox Machine Supporter Brennen reminded me with this question in the P.O. Sox mailbag to bring it back to mind.

With Yolmer Sanchez gone, could we see a Nick Madrigal contract similar to Jimenez or is that too bold? Hahn is probably more set on having Robert get a similar contract considering CF is a top priority. If Madrigal doesn’t get a contract would we just simply move Garcia or Mendick to fill that position. I just feel that if we are dead set on winning this season we need to have the best lineup out there in which we expect to get the best results. Also how much does the current Kris Bryant grievance issue affect Robert and Madrigal? (You may have answered this already)

(I have covered the latter topic, but I’ll return to it when Bryant’s grievance is decided, which should be at some point this month.)

Getting back to White, the deal he struck strikes me as pertinent to our interests. He’s just the fourth player to sign such an extension before reaching the majors, but the White Sox have one of the previous three with Eloy Jiménez, and players like Nick Madrigal and Luis Robert are in the same position as Jiménez was. Andrew Vaughn could push his way into the picture, for that matter.

A year after Jiménez gave the Sox control over the first eight years of his pro career, the White extension reinforces the idea that Jiménez did as well for himself as he could among players with no MLB experience. White’s deal pales in comparison. If I were Robert or Madrigal, I wouldn’t entertain an extension until spring training, assuming the Sox are entertaining the idea themselves. The absurdity of a spring roster battle when they’re the clear No. 1 option is about the only leverage they have, and one that gains strength if Bryant wins his grievance.

I think Brennen is right that Robert would be the bigger victory for Rick Hahn, but I also think negotiating such a deal will prove difficult. On the White Sox’s side, Robert seems more likely to produce the power numbers that can cause an arbitration trajectory to soar, and flattening that curve is the inspiration behind these early commitments. Jiménez’s deal guaranteed him enough money to make the White Sox assume some degree of risk, but it’s still worth doing for the team for this reason.

Jiménez’s bat made him a surer bet, so maybe the White Sox wouldn’t go as far in trying to lock down Robert and his shorter, more volatile track record. Even if the Sox have the confidence, Robert might not be as willing to give that edge away. He doesn’t need to sign a deal like so many other plays in his position, as he already earned $26 million when he signed with the Sox. That gives him a $20 million head start over Madrigal, and about a $23 million edge over Jiménez.

Madrigal’s situation looks to me like an easier one to grasp for both sides, as there should be a narrower gap between the floor and ceiling of his earning potential. For this reason, though, the White Sox may not be so inspired to negotiate an extension before he plays his first game. Fellow second baseman Scott Kingery, who is one of those four players to sign an extension before his first MLB game, hit 26 homers in the season leading up to his six-year, $24 million extension. Madrigal has a total of four homers in 163 pro games.

That’s not to say Madrigal will come cheap, though. The arbitration process rewards high batting averages, which Madrigal could offer over a lot of games played. I also get the sense, based on his inscrutable what-me-worry attitude toward slow starts, lack of power and all the other doubts he’s had to overcome, that he’s more than willing to bet on himself. Although it may seem foolish for any player to pass up a shot at his $20 million, guys like Bryant and George Springer and Francisco Lindor and even John Danks show the virtue in such confidence.

That’s just a gut feeling, and one that could easily be proven wrong in a month because, hey, that first $20 million makes sense for so many reasons. If I had to bet, though, I’d guess that both players push the White Sox to unsettling rhetorical lengths in the spring, and we’ll find out how out of place such suppression looks based on how aggressive the Sox are in adding elsewhere.

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HallofFrank

“Unsettling rhetorical lengths” is the White Sox middle name. 

MrTopaz

Melville, too.

Papa Giorgio

White Unsettling Rhetorical Length Sox makes me think of definitely not a baseball team.

…But then in some regards, neither are the White Sox sometimes.

KenWo4LiFe

I wouldn’t care about madrigal’s service time. If he has a nice spring start him on the roster. His ceiling isn’t going to be that much cash even if he’s good. 

PauliePaulie

I wouldn’t care about Vaughn’s either.
Only need to open the wallet for Robert, and Giolito if possible.

HallofFrank

Yeah, I’d say we’ll learn quickly the Sox plans for Madrigal. Surely they aren’t going to let Mendick start there for more than a month. So if they don’t ink another 2B, I’d expect to see Madrigal very early. 

karkovice squad

I think the Sox shouldn’t be worrying about 7>6 service time or even Super Two for any of their next wave at all right now. They can resolve that with extensions down the line. The Bryant grievance and next CBA may make it moot, anyway.

What they need to worry about are the clocks they’ve already started. It’s in their best interest to put a winning effort together sooner than later. Winning does still improve cash flow.

Also, too, maybe they could make some investments in figuring out how to develop players so the talent pipeline refills itself without tanking or trading stars with 3+ years to go on their contracts.

PauliePaulie

If they don’t have to worry about the next wave, because “they can resolve that with extensions”, why wouldn’t that hold true with the current one?

karkovice squad

They already gamed the extra year for the other guys and cashed in bargain early extension chits for 2 of them. The next extensions aren’t going to be as affordable out of the current wave since they’ve exhausted a chunk of their leverage.

As Cirensica

I wouldn’t worry too much for extending him now neither. Extend Vaughn or Gio or Roberts… Madrigal? I’ll wait until he shows something worth extending.

Denman

Hmmm, minor league gold glove award, .331 BA in his first taste of AAA pitching, 35 SBs in 48 attempts, 44 walks and only 16 Ks in 532 PA’s: what has Vaughn done that makes him more deserving of an extension than the stats Madrigal has compiled?

As Cirensica

Vaughn can actually hit the ball pass the infield (before you reply …. I am being facetious). Yes, Madrigal has some good numbers in the minors but so did Ryan Goins.

his lack of power concerns me deeply.

Denman

In some ways I’m more eager to see how Nick’s skills play in the majors than I am Robert’s. I hold on to the old school belief that a “pesky” hitter at the top of a line-up can give certain pitchers fits.

As Cirensica

I am willing to bet that Roberts will be a better player than Nick, and it ain’t gonna be close.

Right Size Wrong Shape

*Robert

Otter

True South Siders call him Roberts, no need to correct.

knoxfire30

Lot of moving parts here. The sox could easily say screw it and just start these two guys if they have nice springs. However if they need an extension in hand I think it could prove a bit difficult. Madrigal 6 years from now even if he is a solid contributor isnt the type of free agent that should be tough for the sox to resign so I am not sure how desperate the sox will be to give him guaranteed money now, to buy out a year or two of free agency. The robert situation also puts the sox in a tough spot, he already has his life changing money for him and his family. The best way to get a team friendly deal is to have a top tier prospect without a massive signing bonus or strong financial background to leverage them into taking a guaranteed sum. I really don’t foresee either of these players agreeing to extensions.

peanutsNcrackerjack

Pending any changes from the Bryant appeal, I think we should be prepared to see Robert and Madrigal start the year in the minors. Robert likely won’t sign a long term deal with a $20+ million nest egg. Madrigal’s power numbers doesn’t  really merit a head turning offer. We will continue to require patience in this long rebuild process.  Brick by brick, my citizens. 

MrStealYoBase

Madrigal is going to be easy to extend two or three years down the line. Even if he pans out as expected his price won’t go up that much. All you are doing by extending him now is assuming risk. The Sox already have Mendick to cover second til May.

Robert has superstar written all over him. Hopefully they can get a deal done and have him start on Opening Day but I’m not optimistic.

The real extension priorities should be Giolito and Moncada, since their control periods will dictate the length of the competitive window more than any other players. The White Sox need to be willing to entertain whatever it would take to lock those guys up through their 20’s.

Eagle Bones

Hypothetical scenario: let’s say Madrigal inks an extension and Robert does not. How hard is it for them to explain why Madrigal starts in the majors while Robert doesn’t (given Robert had more PAs at AAA, better offensive numbers, etc.)? I assume they’d come up with some kind of BS explanation, but would that get any additional heat from the union compared to a normal one guy up vs. down proposition?

knoxfire30

Of course it would be a BS excuse but they could say they still have Leury Garcia who started the bulk of games in CF last year while they dont have Sanchez who started the bulk of the games at 2nd which created the opening….

Eagle Bones

Good point. The current state of the roster does lend itself to this.

karkovice squad

They could even say they want to reward Engel’s second half progress or see if it sticks.

Denman

That’s a really interesting scenario. In light of the fact that Hahn has already indicated that Robert is a “tick ahead” of Madrigal, I think they’d have to keep them both at AAA in spite of Nick signing an extension. Or, they could start the season with both on the active roster and count on Robert, who has already expressed a degree of loyalty to the organization, to eventually accept a team friendly deal.

zerobs

The Sox usually don’t do these extension deals with young players until March. I’d assume Robert gets done in March 2020 and Madrigal in March 2021. And Robert will probably blow past Grandal’s deal. If not for the thumb injuries, I assume (perhaps wrongly) that Robert would have had 40-50 games played in MLB already. They already spent the 26MM, might as well get as much MLB production out of that money spent as possible. My only concern with Robert is how he handles late-March/April Chicago temperatures.

MrStealYoBase

If you are Hahn, are you willing to entertain a Alcuna-like deal with Robert? Say, 80/8 fully guaranteed.

He’s never seen a pitch at the MLB level. But it would probably take that kind of guarantee for him to sign on the dotted line.

texag10

If I’m Robert, the conversation starts at 8/100 and goes up from there. I don’t need the money yet so I have all the leverage. If he pans out, it’s still a bargain for the Sox. But even without an extension, there’s no baseball reason for him to be down in the minors to start the year. He should have gotten some PAs last September.

Denman

White Sox hitting coach,Frank Menechino has expressed the view that a young player should spend a full season at AAA before coming to the majors. Talented players especially need to learn how to make adjustments when their innate talent is no longer enough to get them by. Menechino expressed the belief that it would be good for Madrigal to spend most of next year in AAA. So, there are legitimate baseball reasons for both to start the season in the minors next year, if providing such reasons proves necessary.

Eagle Bones

Good thing deciding on promotions isn’t part of the hitting coach’s job.

lil jimmy

The problem with that is, the ball park is tiny and the ball is juiced.

mikeyb

The MLB Ball is also juiced, and Guaranteed Rate Field was the 5th friendliest for home runs in 2019.

texag10

Well that all depends on how talented we think Robert is. Juan Soto skipped AAA entirely and only had 35 AA PAs. Acuna had 344 PAs in AAA. Alex Bregman had 83. Gordon Beckham had 30. Do we really think Eloy learned anything valuable in his 250 PAs in AAA? Especially given we already know he had no idea how to prepare for opponents until Abreu worked with him? What exactly are they helping Robert with in AAA at this point if they aren’t teaching that stuff?

Denman

I don’t know that I agree with Menechino, but I think that he’s getting at the fact that some player’s, especially if they’ve always had success due to their talent, don’t know how to make adjustments and don’t respond well to failure at the major league level. Menechino has specifically mentioned that Robert is talented enough to barrel up a pitch even when he’s fooled, at least at AAA; I’d guess that the point would be to get Robert to a point where he isn’t ‘fooled’ as often.

Eagle Bones

So he’s going to learn how to fail by not failing at AAA?

karkovice squad

Menechino’s views are antiquarian.

Josh Nelson

Well, we are assuming that Robert doesn’t need the money yet. I think it would be hard to blow $26 million dollars in a short period of time, but professional athletes have.

hackwilson

Probability for Roberts is the under/slim like you pointed out Jim. Madrigal didn’t even make the table.
Front foot hitters who make high contact have trouble with junk. Nick (when he arrives) will see nothing but major leaguer garbage not the meatballs he’s sprayed around the kiddy table.
Giolito should be priority one for Hahn.

Right Size Wrong Shape

*Robert

Josh Nelson

Old friend alert

Soxfan2

I have a gut feeling that Vieira will learn some control and perhaps a nice breaking ball in Japan and get a second chance in the MLB. 

SonOfCron

I do not.

andyfaust

My gut tells me this will be the last time most of us see will his name.

asinwreck

Whether he gets control or not, he has the chance to be a folk hero over there.

I will never forget his warmup pitch before his MLB debut.

shaggy65

I’d never seen that video before, but the umpire reaction is fantastic

Denman

Does that clear another spot on the roster?

Patrick Nolan

Yup. At 37 now, if the rumblings about Sanchez and Burr from last week are to be believed.

Denman

Good, now the Sox have room to add Cole, Rendon and Strausburg.

w35thst

Like most posters here, I’m never quite sure what tack the Sox will take, but I’d imagine they’d offer extensions to both, as it’s surely in their best interest to do so. Whether or not the players choose to go along is another story, but being that they are both being virtually handed the starting jobs why not?

Eagle Bones

Sources: #Padres acquire Jurickson Profar.

— Robert Murray (@ByRobertMurray) December 2, 2019

Eagle Bones

Austin Allen and a PTBNL going back to SD. Interesting return for one year of Profar. Allen gets above average framing numbers from BP for his work in the upper minors and has hit pretty well in the minors (though he’s not super young).

w35thst

It couldn’t hurt to at least try to lock them up, although I don’t see NM as a priority. Locking up Gio would be a lot more meaningful.

Eagle Bones

McCann gets 500k more than projected by MLBTR.

Catcher James McCann and the Chicago White Sox have agreed on a one-year, $5.4 million deal, sources tell ESPN. A little more than a year ago, McCann was non-tendered by Detroit. He will be a free agent after the 2020 season.

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) December 2, 2019

Eagle Bones

Moustakas finally gets his big deal. Good for him.

Mike Moustakas' deal with the Cincinnati Reds is for four years and $64 million, sources tell ESPN.

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) December 2, 2019

Josh Nelson

I think the same amount would be fair for signing Nicholas Castellanos

knoxfire30

that feels like an over pay for moose… plus most of that deal he is gonna have to stick at 2nd…. could be interesting

dwjm3

Could be good for us…May give Cinci less to spend on Zack Wheeler

Eagle Bones

Yeah if you’re looking at this through a Sox lense, that does seem to be the takeaway. Less money for others to spend on guys that are a better fit for the Sox.

zerobs

Huge overpay considering Jonathan Villar was available in trade for one A-ball pitcher.

mikeschach

Glad we got Grandal before this went down

AdamH

With Moose in, Peraza is out. Terrible year in ’19, but pretty solid in 2018. Worth taking a flyer on to fill out the bench or just redundant with Garcia / Mendick?

PauliePaulie

The Reds are a poorly run team.

As Cirensica

Unlike the White Sox…

Otter

Trying to win is bad?

The Sox and Mets are poorly run.

PauliePaulie

Yes. Clearly I was saying that trying to win is bad.

knoxfire30

McCann gets a little over projection at 5.4 mil

mikeschach

4 for 64 makes the Grandal deal look like a steal

Otter

A few have touched on this in the comments already, but the Sox window opened last year. This idea of holding anyone back to avoid super two would be a classic penny-wise, pound foolish White Sox move. The Sox have a four year window at this point, whatever you think the core is, at least three of those guys have four year deals at this point. Holding back Madrigal or Robert for more than two weeks because they didn’t sign an extension would be straight up foolish.

And more have touched on this: why extend Madrigal when it’s unclear if he’ll hit enough to be an above average MLBer? The same probably goes for Robert as I’d expect his bust potential to be quite high seeing the swing and miss issues (I fully expect it to take him a few years to fully ‘figure it out’ if he ever does; hopefully his glove and power can make up for what I expect to be low OBP early on).

HallofFrank

I agree with you that the Sox shouldn’t hold Madrigal or Robert back, but it has nothing to do with their “window” being closed after 2023. In 2024, the Sox should have Eloy, Robert, Madrigal, Kopech, and Cease all under contract. Plus some of the talent from the farm now (e.g. Vaughn and Dunning), plus whoever they draft from now until then. 

The Sox (and Sox fans) shouldn’t see this as a four year window that will/should/must close after 2023. No reason why they can’t compete in 2024 and beyond.

craigws

There are plenty of reasons why they can’t compete in 2024 and beyond, but the most pertinent ones are that they are terrible at drafting, and signing free agents.
Four years is a good long time, and they should be going all-in (god help us) on it now.

iowasox1971

I don’t have a big problem with waiting to give extensions to Robert and Madrigal. Let’s see how they do in spring training, with a healthy dose of at-bats against other teams’ top pitchers. If, say, Robert is hitting .500 near the end of spring training, then maybe some talks could begin. But I wouldn’t necessarily see him agreeing to a team-friendly deal. I was all for bringing Robert up last season, but if the Sox have gone this long with using the Bryant-like strategy, they might as well stick to the plan.

As for Madrigal, it might help him to have those extra few weeks in minor-league ball, especially if he doesn’t have an overly impressive spring training.

asinwreck

In my off-season plan, I proposed the Sox trade for Blake Treinen. Today the A’s non-tendered him, so all he costs is money.

knoxfire30

Treinen is very interesting literally the best reliever in baseball in 2018…

Steven Souza and Taijuan walker jumped out to me as other names that could be interesting on the right deals. Both coming off significant injuries.

NDSox12

I know he was probably going to be DFA’d at some point this winter anyway, but can someone explain what the point of non-tendering a pre-arb player like Caleb Frare is?

shaggy65

Already old for a prospect and with minimal upside. He’s shown no ability to ever learn control, so if the Sox don’t see any future for him maybe they think the AAA roster spot can be put to better use.

Otter

Sox gave the Yankees $1.5m in international bonus money for him… woof.