Some White Sox prospects would miss 2020 more than others

Seby Zavala (Laura Wolff / Charlotte Knights)

Picking up on yesterday’s post, the Associated Press fleshed out more of what an Arizona-based MLB season — or start of season — would look like.

Scott Boras was the only identified source to go on the record, which isn’t a surprise. He’s stumping for games to be played however possible, and here’s how he envisions this particular future.

“You’re going to be largely separated from your families and you’re going to have to function in a very contained way. It’s not it’s not a normal life, this idea,” Boras said. “You’re going to have an identified group of people. You’re going to have a constantly tested group of people. And you’re going to have a very limited access of those people to the outside world so that you can assure a very uncontaminated league, if you will, to produce a product that is inspirational to our country.”

Chase Field, with artificial turf and a retractable roof, could be the site of daily tripleheaders, Boras said.

This doesn’t change my opinion of such an arrangement — especially when factoring outdoor stadiums in Arizona in the middle of summer — but whatever the chances, the lengths baseball is going to create a suitable environment for its major-league product doesn’t paint a pretty picture for the possibilities at lower levels in 2020. Fanless games don’t do a whole lot down on the farm since teams don’t have TV revenue to fall back on.

Minor League Baseball already had a fight on its hands with contraction concentrated at the short-season levels (and Keith Law provided an updated outlook on that issue recently), so this is a terrible time to lose ground financially.

The pandemic also poses plenty of problems for practically every prospect, but some types of players are better positioned than others. Thinking about the White Sox farm system in particular, three groups benefit from a little more insulation from the toll of a lost year.

  • Injured players: Somebody like Jimmy Lambert was already going to miss most of the 2020 season, if not all of it.
  • Young players: While Bryce Bush and Lenyn Sosa barely kept their heads above water in the Sally League at 19, they don’t look terribly out of place if they have to resume the level at age 21. In other words, the White Sox picked a great year to suddenly go prep-heavy in the draft.
  • Relievers: Two of the White Sox’s most recent relief success stories are the 27-year-old Jimmy Cordero and the 29-year-old Evan Marshall. Bullpens are less ageist than most.

Older players at other positions might luck out and absorb a missed season with relative ease due to lack of internal competition, but just like the draft, the players who don’t matriculate are liable to getting pulled into the gears of the escalator.

Thinking about this some more, I went through the affiliates level by level to see which prospects look a lot different with another year on their listed age, and without any recent improvements to offset it.

Charlotte

Seby Zavala (would be 27 in 2021): It’s already kind of a wonder that he’s still on the 40-man roster, given that he’s fallen to fifth-catcher status after hitting .230/.285/.429 at hitter-friendly Charlotte through age 25. Catchers can be weird. Kevan Smith can be a role model, as he carved out a decent little career after debuting at 28. Then again, Smith’s hit tool got him over the hump. Zavala’s has disappeared.

Yermín Mercedes (28) and Danny Mendick (27): This stoppage catches both players at a bad time, because they did the hard work of shedding the “organizational player” label but were deprived a chance to stick. That said, their stories and skill sets are distinct enough that they should get a chance to break through somewhere when play resumes.

Birmingham

Luis Gonzalez (25): Gonzalez was the oldest member of the unsupergroup Birmingham Logjam, which isn’t a great starting point for this discussion. That’s not necessarily his fault, but now he’d start the 2021 season officially behind the age curve. The good news is that the competition isn’t scintillating, and others facing the same question are Luis Basabe, Blake Rutherford, and especially…

Micker Adolfo (24): … who would be largely out of action for two consecutive years if the 2020 season were wiped off the slate. He’d already overcome one deficit of reps early in his career, and watching him strike out 38 times over 77 plate appearances in fall and spring ball suggests he’ll need all the time he can get to remove the rust.

Gavin Sheets (25): Sheets has no such performance concerns, unlike the others on this list. A so-so 2019 line from a first baseman masked season-long improvement that would have put him in position to start 2020 at Charlotte, depending on how the Sox managed the DH/1B/C logjam above him. Andrew Vaughn is the problem here, specifically if he meets expectations and the Sox want to compress his timeline.

Alec Hansen (26): You might’ve already written him off at 24, but the precociousness argument — relative to relievers, at least — is the only thing he had going for him.

Winston-Salem

Carlos Perez (24): His hit tool has always given him a chance, and catchers be crazy, but he’s already been in pro ball for six years, which complicates matters in the event of late blooming.

Kannapolis

Jake Burger (25): The Intimidators are the Cannon Ballers now, but the old red-and-black uniform was the last one he wore in regular-season play all the way back in 2017, so we’re putting him here. After two lost seasons due to the messy aftermath of two Achilles ruptures, he’s probably operating on a whole different scale where playing regularly at any level would be a huge victory, and the Sox would sort out the other future questions afterward. He deserves a chance to prove himself after all he’s been through.

Great Falls

Sam Abbott (22): The Great Water Polo Player Project showed signs of life in its third year, as the 36 percent strikeout rate at least had an impressive .221 ISO alongside it. This half-season was going to be a telling one, and if the stoppage ends up demolishing short-season leagues as we know them, I’m not sure where he goes from here.

Lency Delgado (22): He was 19 when the Sox took him out of prep school in the fourth round of the 2019 draft, and his age was the only thing distinguishing him at either the AZL in 2018 or the Pioneer League in 2019. He’s another guy who could really use another go-around in Great Falls.

Arizona Rookie League

Josue Guerrero (21): After spending one of his teen seasons in the DSL and two in the AZL, Guerrero finally showed signs of breaking through during the second half of his 2019. He made himself intriguing for a Great Falls blast-off at age 20, and if that’s not available to him whenever baseball resumes, he’ll be the kind of player that will inform us as to how the team treats the lowest rungs of the minors.

Dominican Summer League

Yolbert Sanchez (24): He knocked the rust off in the DSL for tax purposes, but scouting reports said his talent was probably equal to Winston-Salem or Birmingham at this stage in his career. It wouldn’t have been out of place to see a 23-year-old on the Dash’s 2020 roster, but an extra year doesn’t do him any favors, especially for a glove-first guy who doesn’t really run.

(Photo of Seby Zavala by Laura Wolff / Charlotte Knights)

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shaggy65

Burger came to mind immediately when I saw today’s headline. What happens to him if he has to miss a 3rd consecutive season?

Of course, there were rumblings this winter that Jake’s health still wasn’t 100%. With less pressure (either internal or external) to get back on the diamond as soon as possible, I’m hoping that whenever play resumes he will truly be ready.

As Cirensica

I was going to say where is B. Rutherford, but just notice the guy is still 22 (almost 23). It seems he has been here for about 5 years.

vanillablue

Also begs the question of what happens to the aging curve when literally nobody plays for a year. In theory it could benefit older, established MLB players, but in practice I’d guess that this stoppage will just result in an unceremonious end to many careers.

metasox

If minor leaguers aren’t developing, that should help veterans stick around. Plus, they should be better positioned to stay in some kind of peak shape

metasox

I would think a guy on the bubble like Mercedes could benefit from this, assuming expanded rosters. And I would like to see him hit outdoors in AZ